Glorious Sunshine! Motivation weather helps us fly over the hump!

November 9, 2011

It has been a cloudy, dreary, chilly month but that is all behind us now!  Today our Florida weather bounces back in a big way as highs roll into the lower 80s. The only thing impeding our sun rays will be if you are under the oak or magnolia tree you see above. We have a UV Index of 5 which means when you take your extra long walk or run like I am make sure to remember the sunscreen with SPF 15! I know it is November but believe it or not on average a sunburn can take place today in as little as 35 minutes. If you need to ask the boss for a favor or about a much deserved raise, today is the day to do it. It has been proven that sunny, warm days release the feel-good chemical from the pineal gland in the brain. You are not only more motivated on days like this but your body naturally has more energy. I feel like I can run 26.2 now and the National Breast Cancer Marathon is not until February. I better harness some of this energy! You also receive free vitamin D which builds your bones and muscles. So on this hump day get out and enjoy. You also have the weatherman's seal of approval to take off work early. Just double-check with your boss, please! I do not want any surprise e-mails...lol

It has been tough to find any pictures on the asteroid fly-by last night. Here is the best one I could find out of Clay Hill Observatory in Massachusetts. The brightest object in the lower right is asteroid 2005 YU55. What is amazing is this asteroid will do several more fly-bys of the earth over the next few hundred years. It is yet to be determined if we will stay outside of its main path. But we should be safe for at least the next 100 years at least from this asteroid. It has been put on the hazardous asteroids list. Did you know there was such a thing? Now if you are wondering why every channel and frequency on your TV and radio will be going off today at 2 p.m. it does not mean the asteroid has turned around and is coming our way. It is the first ever national test of our emergency alert system. The whole country will be impacted at 2 p.m. EST. It will last for approximately 30 seconds. It is only a test.

Here is another look at Sean which is the big swirl in the Atlantic. It will continue to produce dangerous rips and high seas here in Florida for at least one more day before moving north and falling apart. We could still have 12 foot seas out near the Gulf Stream, so once again today may be beautiful on land but it is not the best of fishing days well offshore. Sean, which is the 18th named storm and for the first time since records have been kept in the tropics since 1851 we have had two consecutive seasons with 18 or more named storms. Hurricane-wise this year it has been average with 6. Average is 6 and it looks like the Saharan Dust Layer from Africa once again played a key role in limiting the number of hurricanes by adding drier air to the atmosphere and more wind shear. Speaking of 6, it was our sixth most active year on record but we are not done yet. I see a huge ridge setting up in the Caribbean Sea along with very warm water. This breeding ground is not done yet! I think another named storm is likely which would tie us for third most active year on record for named storms. Speaking of our pattern through the end of November....are you ready for your Turkey Day sneak peek? Okay here we go!

Gobble, gobble, gobble! There are a lot of folks asking me what it will be like for their northern relatives when they come visit over Thanksgiving. They want warm weather to go with their mashed potatoes and cranberries. Our average Thanksgiving highs are in the lower 70s but I think it could top that this year without a doubt. The overall pattern across North America is expected to flip but not until after Thanksgiving into December. The cold west, warm east set-up due to a strong high pressure north of Hawaii should continue for at least the next two weeks. But there are signs of Greenland blocking by the end of the month which would likely help bring some of the cold air locked up in Alaska and northwest Canada into Florida by early December. Look at this incredible snow map of Alaska. The whole state is buried!

Now Alaska is seeing what I am calling a BLIZZICANE or its strongest storm to hit the Bering Sea area since 1913. Wind gusts of 90 mph with snow! Can you imagine. The pressure on the storm is 943 mb which you would normally see in a category 4 hurricane. So not to get side-tracked but we really need to realize how lucky we are and that this pattern is a volatile one which could hammer the Midwest and then the East Coast as we head into December. The snow cover will allow the cold air to build in a big way and it has nowhere to go but eventually farther south and east. It is not a matter of if but when and I still think it will be later than sooner which is good news for Uncle Ron and Aunt Debbie! But for my friends reading this from the Midwest I think you are skating on thin ice and there could be a Thanksgiving Blizzard in your neighborhood. If you are in Wisconsin or Minnesota be alert. Farther south in Indiana your weather will flip like a switch and you need to have the snow shovels ready by late November.

.

Here is the North American Oscillation index which drives our temperatures in Florida over the cooler months. If you see it is red or positve it usually is a good sign for me to be able to forecast above normal temperatures. The last two winters we were stuck in the blue or negative which means the cold air would just not go away with one frost after another! In this pattern we can still get some cold shots of air but they do not last long and we warm right back up. So while will have some ups and downs with our temperatures over the next couple weeks, overall the warmer air should win out along with the sunshine!

Tomorrow we will talk more about our frost chances for interior areas away from the waterways by Saturday morning. But remember the chill will not stick around very long. Now you know why. Have a great day and enjoy the sunshine!

Good Viewing for Tonight's Close Encounter of the Asteroid Kind

November 8, 2011

Our old friend is back! It was sure nice to see the sun again after what seemed to be a month of darkness. Well we were really stuck in the clouds for three and a half days but this is the sunshine state so it felt much, much longer. This was all due to our newest tropical storm that formed. But we will get to that. Of much more urgency is an asteroid moving toward earth at nearly 30,000 mph as I type this. Now we are not in danger but it is a reminder of our earth's turbulent past and a future that will inevitably include more catastrophic collisions. The dinosaurs if they were here could attest to this.

Asteroid 2005 YU55 will be about 201,000 miles away or its closest to the earth at 6:28 p.m. This distance is closer than the moon currently is which is about 248,000 miles away. Pretty impressive! The timing on mostly clear skies looks great but this asteroid is the shade of dark chocolate since it is a class-C asteroid which means it is made primarily of carbon. So you will need a high powered telescope with a mirror greater than six inches. You need to look high in the southern sky just to the right of the Pegasus Square. Our best viewing would likely be between 9 and 10 p.m. in this part of the sky. It is moving quickly and is faint so it will be a challenge to even the more sophisticated stargazer.

What is amazing is it will only be 150,000 miles from the moon. The good news is we will be able to study this asteroid which will hopefully give us an idea of what we are dealing in the future when we may not be so lucky. The good news is we should be asteroid free for at least the next 100 years. It goes to show you how fragile life is and that you should never take it for granted. If this 1,300 foot space rock hit it would have left a 5 mile crater about 2,000 feet deep. A tsunami wave of 80 feet would have reached all our continents and it would be like 65,000 Hiroshima bombs going off at the same time. So we can count our blessings! We are safe but it will come so close that the earth will effect its spin which takes 18 hours to make one revolution! That is a lot to think about isn't it! Our next close encounter of the asteroid kind will not take place until 2029. Good viewing and please send any great pictures to weather@firstcoastnews.com. Thanks!

I want to wish my Dad a Happy Birthday. I will be going out to celebrate tonight. The best gift my Dad ever gave me was teaching me about the different clouds one day at the playground and always believing in me! Thanks Dad! I love you!

Speaking of clouds this would make both me and my Dad proud! What a beautiful job by NASA! We have a full-fledged tropical storm now. We talked about this over the weekend! What started out as a storm with both mid-latitude and tropical characteristics is now all tropical since it has had about 48 hours to spin like a top over tropical waters of 80.5 degrees just above the 80 degree threshold. Its biggest impact we have already felt with the lingering clouds, swells, dangerous seas, rip currents, beach erosion and northeast breezes. The good news is it will stay out to sea and Bermuda should only see a few gusts of 40 mph along with some rain showers. It will weaken by late week as it encounters cooler water and wind shear.

Sean is being kicked out by a major front that brought those amazing Oklahoma tornadoes yesterday. The main local impact for us at home will be a couple of very nice warm November days! Yes, I said warm. We have been running about 4 to 5 degrees below normal so far this moth and we are long overdue. We can keep the sunshine in the forecast to boot. A sneak peek to this upcoming weekend does not hold for another nor'easter! How about a southeaster. I will be back to explain more tomorrow along with a turkey day forecast that will have you gobbling for more!

Nor'easter Taking its Cues from a Storm That May Be Named Sean!

Sunday, November 6, 2011

Today our nor'easter continues. A small craft advisory continues along with a high surf advisory. Northeast wind gusts on the open seas at 25-35 kts. Surf 8-10 feet with minor beach erosion. Seas a monstrous 10-16 feet. Keep the dingy at the dock if possible today. On land a gusty northeast wind continues at 20-30 mph. We do have a warmer layer of air but it is trapped 5,000 feet above us and it looks like it will have trouble mixing to the surface. This inversion caused by our nor'easter will have three big impacts on our weather. It will keep us cloudy throughout the day. It was stabilize the atmosphere with only a few sprinkles possible. Thirdly, temperatures will struggle into the 60s.

Our sluggish weather and nor'easter is taking its cues from an area of low pressure near the Bahamas spinning in place. You can see it on the satellite picture with the big swirl above. There is a possibility it could become subtropical Sean since it is now moving over 81 degree water. It will sit over this tropical water for at least 48 hours. This system's main impact on us at home would be to keep our nor'easter howling for another couple days. Right now the National Hurricane Center is giving it a 10% chance of being a hybrid storm.

This week will feature a supercell of storms across the deep South and it may impact the Panhandle of Florida with severe weather. By time it moves our way it will weaken but we cannot rule out a thunderstorm by late Thursday. We will turn very warm ahead of this front with highs bouncing back to near 80. Keep your eyes to the sky this week! We have an asteroid that is passing only about 3,000 miles from earth and we should be able to see it on Tuesday night! Our Veterans Day Parade looks sunny and breezy with temperatures in the lower 60s. Have a great week and keep looking up! That is the way to go!

I will see you tonight at 6, 6:30, and 11. Dan Hicken will be in the house and you never know what may happen on the set! I will also post more details of our big week ahead here on the blog this evening. I am actually running an hour behind today unlike most folks because my phone turned the clock back two hours. That is a fun story I will share as well here on the blog...although not so fun for me when I woke up. The main thing is I did get to the station in time for the early bird show! God bless! Have a great day!

Gales of November today, showers move in tonight!

Saturday, November 5, 2011

I had lots of feedback from soccer moms this morning on Good Morning Jacksonville and it can be summed up in three words...COLD, COLD, COLD....Suzanne was kind enough to send me in this picture between games. It also gave her a chance to thaw out her so-called frozen ears. She has some afternoon games to go to and unfortunately it will not feel much better. What a great Mom! The kids will appreciate this eventually even if you have to wait a few years....lol. What made those mid-50s feel so much colder was that north breeze! Cover up those ears for the afternoon games because it will only get worse with gusts at times from 30 to 35 mph.

It is that time of year when we get nor'easters that fire up off in the Atlantic caused by cold north winds meeting our tropical Gulf Stream that is still close to 80 degrees. This temperature gradient helps form a natural area of low pressure in the atmosphere and as we know the wind takes its cues from pressure differences between our ocean low and higher pressure to the north causes the wind to blow with gusto! The northeast wind is force 8 on the Beaufort Wind Scale which means we will have gale force wind gusts near 40 mph. To put it in perspective you only need 39 mph sustained winds around a warm core low pressure to have a named tropical storm. While not a tropical storm, we will can call this storm the Force 8 Nor'easter and it will be a force to be reckoned with throughout the weekend into next week!

The good news is we will not have a raw rain to go with the wind and ominous clouds today. Here is our futurecast pinpoint when and where we can expect the rain. Shower activity should hold off at the beaches until this evening and will not spread inland until late tonight. This means it looks good downtown for the fair tonight as well. The big story again today will be the chilly wind. Take the ear plugs and jackets if you are heading out to the Naval Air Show. Highs will only be in the lower to middle 60s with wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph.

A gale warning (wind gusts of 39 mph or higher) will continue offshore with 10-15 foot seas and wind gusts to 40 mph. A high surf advisory is also in effect for minor beach erosion due to 8 foot breakers today.

Rip currents will remain dangerous even for surfers. This nor'easter will linger through at least Monday with showers becoming more likely Sunday into Monday. But rain coverage should only be 30% tops and it will not be an all day rain! Check out the European accumulated rainfall map above. It shows most of the rain should stay east of highway 301 and many of us will not see one drop of rain this weekend especially in Georgia and interior Florida. So I would not cancel plans but just have your umbrellas handy. Temperatures will remain below normal with the cloud cover and a northeast wind continuing on Sunday. While warmer highs will only be near 70 once again which is a good six degrees below our 30 year average.

Our long-range forecast includes temperatures bouncing back near 80 by Wednesday and Thursday of next week ahead of our new weather system that could bring a severe weather outbreak to portions of the deep South and Midwest. By time it gets here it should be in a weakened state with a few showers returning late Thursday. Have a wonderful weekend! Enjoy your extra hour of sleep and turn those clocks back one hour before going to sleep tonight. It is also a good time to change your smoke detector batteries. Take care. My wife has some scrumptious chilly waiting for me. I will see you tonight at 6, 7, and 11! Thanks for reading and watching!

Resplendent, Riveting Rollercoaster Temperature Ride! Hang on, it is just the beginning!

Saturday, October 22, 2011

What a day it has been! The positive pink energy in the resplendent riveting weather was unmatched anywhere else in the country. This was the scene in downtown Jacksonville this morning and the Race for the Cure was incredible. I did not get to partake in it since I was doing Good Morning Jacksonville but I did go out and shake hands with folks and even paws! Even the dogs were out showing their support so we can finish not just this 5K but breast cancer once and for all.

The bright sunshine and wonderful heart-felt stories warmed us all up in a hurry which was a good thing. We officially tied the record low of 39 in Jacksonville set back in 1976. It was even colder at Cecil Field with reports of frost on some rooftops which is about a month early. You compare that with lows of 50 just 8 miles away on the tropical St. Johns River and that is pretty amazing. The river temperature is still a balmy 77 degrees thanks to it flowing from south to north from Central Florida. I know the manatees were relieved!

Even more riveting was the fact our temperatures rose about 30 degrees from 7 a.m. to 1 p.m. and before all is said and done we should top out at 70! You can thank the polar air mass which is very dry along with our Florida sunshine for the nice comfortable afternoon. The only clouds I could find anywhere close to home were made in our television studio this morning by Atomic Allie! I need to get some of that dry ice so I can become the mad meteorologist for Halloween! LOL. You also see it was nice having Deanna Fene in the house this morning filling in for Lenworth Kiese. She is always great to work with that is for sure.

The second part of the weekend will bring some of nature's clouds but not enough to keep us from enjoying mostly sunny skies and any rain shower activity will likely stay offshore and not impact our weather.  We may not have any rain showers but plenty of meteor showers to enjoy tonight! Make sure to look southeast especially earlier tonight before increasing clouds move in toward morning. There should be 10 to 15 shooting stars per hour or about twice the normal. This debris hitting our atmosphere is from Halley's comet.

But do not get too relaxed in this pattern. We have big weather-makers taking shape. We are watching the southern Caribbean which could spawn a tropical depression or possible named storm and a disturbance that will bring a huge snowstorm to portions of Denver and possibly the Midwest and Northeast this week.These two systems could combine forces to give us one heck of an interesting set-up by later next week and weekend. I see our temperature roller coaster just getting started with possibly a 50 degree range! So let's all enjoy this nice weather while we can. Next week we have everything in your seven day forecast except SNOW!

I look forward to seeing you at 6, 7, and 11 with your seven day forecast and I will tell you why this wild pattern may be something to get used to as we head into the winter! See you soon!

Colder in Sunny Florida than Buffalo, New York and the coldest is yet to come!

Thursday, October 20, 2011

Mostly sunny skies will continue with chilly breezes. Highs will only be in the lower to middle 60s. A small craft advisory will be discontinued after 5 p.m. offshore. A sunset will be at 6:51 p.m. tonight and once it goes down the winds will diminish and the skies will clear. Expect plummeting temperatures into the lower to middle 50s by 8 p.m. to near 60 at the beaches.

Tonight will be even colder than last night with lows near 40 inland to the upper 40s beaches. Keep the jackets handy as temperatures will only slowly moderate into the weekend.

A sneak peek for the Jaguars game: It looks good for tailgating Monday night with comfortable temperatures in the lower to middle 60s.

Strongest Cold front of the season arrives! Get out the Jackets!

Wednesday, October 19, 2011

It is easy to pick out the big changes on the way. Notice the wavy clouds over the Gulf of Mexico. These are cold air stratocumulus clouds caused by rapid, intense cooling of the atmosphere and this polar air mass is being ushered in by a cold front that is now howling through the area with wind gusts of 35 mph and brief heavy downpours.

We may have missed out on the severe weather last night but we are not missing out on one of the strongest surges of cold air this early in the season on record. I am heading to the attic to find the family jackets which will be a necessity by morning. The record for Jacksonville is 40 set back in 1989. I do not think it will get that cold at the airport. We will have too much wind and not totally clear out the clouds until the wee hours of the morning. This will keep lows in Jacksonville closer to the middle 40s with near 50 at the beaches and along the river. But, sure the normally coldest spots from Cecil Field into interior Georgia could see lows easily drop to near 40. The coldest morning will likely be Friday. I will be back to explain why and even show you the beautiful pumpkin moon pictures from this past weekend. So how strong is this front? Five-thousand foot temperatures will be dropping 2 to 3 degrees per hour for the next 12 hours. That tells me COLD AIR ADVECTION means business and this chilly autumn air mass may be here to stay for a few days. Have a great afternoon and stay warm!