Red Sky in the Morning, Hoosiers Take Warning Next Week

Alli Loy sent in this beautiful picture of a Reynolds sunrise where temperatures were not far from zero degrees this morning. You can also see a bit of a sun pillar effect with the sunlight reflecting off of ice crystals in the clouds. The good news is this red sky in the morning will not likely give way to any storm warning until next week. Speaking of this...

I have updated the numbers and snow chances on wlfi.com and wanted to make sure you did not let your guard down. The latest long-range maps are flipping around like fish, but if you look at the overall pattern we are still primed for a snowy period starting next week and lasting for about 10 days. The timing is very difficult at this point for exactly when the "big one" will hit. I favor a lighter overrunning snow to begin the week next week with bigger happenings likely by the middle and end of the week. The month of February is looking absolutely wild with plenty of moisture to work with and huge temperature swings. Let the fun begin!

This means if you like the quieter and milder weather to really enjoy the next couple of days. Latest data indicates we could break 40 degrees now. Make sure to tune in to find out who I think will make the 40 degree club and why and of course tonight I will post more maps and information on our busy pattern developing next week.

Montana Dreaming...But Cold Stranglehold Eases Grip on Lafayette

This is a picture more you think would be from Wisconsin, Minnesota, or say Montana but this month the ice fishing has been terrific in the Lafayette area. Chief Videographer Tom Harmeson snapped this great shot while fishing up in Newton County and apparently the blue gill were biting just as much as the cold air. Remember for good and safe ice fishing you need at least four inches of transparent ice. Apparently we are up to eight inches of ice in the most popular spots and that is not surprising. You know we have been in a cold pattern when we have had snow flurries 14 of the past 15 days. On average in Lafayette we normally only have snow flurries fly nine days during the month of January and we have a good chunk of January still remaining. Compare and contrast our below average temperatures here at home with Billings, Montana. Where has our true January thaw been? Here is your answer.

January High Low   Departure from normal
5      35   20       +5
6      37   29       +10
7      48   30       +16
8      53   40       +24
9      39   22        +8
10     47   29       +15
11     49   30       +17
12     34   28        +8
13     52   29       +18
14     39   10        +2
15     45   11        +5
16     54   33       +20
17     58   37       +24
18     62   33       +24
19     58   35       +23
20     55   36       +22

Here in Lafayette during this same period we have had only 3 days break the freezing mark while Billings is going for its 17th straight above freezing. That is right they have been basking in the 50s and 60s with some record highs being shattered. Normally I tell folks to go to Florida this time of year, not Montana! This is unusual for Billings and they have actually been running 11 degrees above average. It is no coincidence our temperatures were about 11 degrees below average last week. Nature likes to keep a balance and if Billings is going to be this warm somebody has had to pay the piper and that of course is us! The amazing part is that we are not the only ones feeling the effects of the Montana heat wave. Temperatures over the Eastern two-thirds of the country are running way below average including Washington, D.C. Our very own Laura Kirtley was in Washington for the Obama inauguration taking her own weather observations for us here on the blog.

You can see Laura on the right with her with a friend and they apparently were out in the cold watching history being made for about six hours with temperatures hovering in the middle to upper 20s. She said that there were so many people on the Mall (estimated near 2 million) that they had no choice but to be all huddled together which kept most folks warm. Also, Laura had so much adrenaline from all the excitement and did not have to worry about the sub-zero weather like she experienced last week in the Midwest. This meant that she was anything but cold! Someday I can see her in Washington working as a correspondent or White House Press Secretary. She would be brilliant!

Here is another good shot Laura sent us showing how everybody was packed in like sardines. It was a day Laura will never forget nor will the Prangley family. My daughters excitedly talked all about how they watched the inauguration at school and of course I made sure my daughter Lauren and I watched it from home so I could remind her and her kids of this when she gets older. Lauren had Spaghetti Os and extra potato chips with Daddy while BJ had a few turkey scraps. She is only four so luckily I will not have to worry about this for quite some time. It was a big moment in history where folks will remember where they were or what they were doing when it happened. Since I was born in Washington, D.C. I was probably a little more emotional than most folks. History is huge in the nation's capital and I visited those hallowed grounds and monuments dozens of times and could really feel how important the moment was and what it meant to our great country.

While all this was going on my goosebumps got even bigger when looking at some Florida conditions yesterday. There were cold air stratocumulus clouds not far from Tampa that had the potential to produce snow. Although there were no official reports of snow reaching the ground I am convinced there was snow virga or snow that evaporated not far from the ground. This was made possible by those cold northwest winds playing havoc with our weather making it down to Flordida and going over the much warmer Gulf of Mexico. This can create what I like to call Gulf-effect snow. We see this same concept in Indiana, although with Lake Michigan as the warmer body of water we call it lake-effect snow. Check out the satellite pictures showing all the cold air stratocumulus off the East Coast of the U.S. and Florida. It makes for quite a silhouette.

The good news is you will not have to go to Montana to find warmer weather because the blocking high pressure that has brought the warm pattern out West and the cold pattern stuck over us like a big glacier from the Midwest to the East Coast is finally showing signs of breaking down. Huge Pacific storms will be crashing into the ridge leading to its demise. You can see the parade of storms lining up.

This means things will be getting awfully interesting. Niccole was trying to keep me calm on the set last night. But when you go from a blocking pattern to a progressive pattern it is hard for most meteorologists to contain themselves. Since we will have more of a zonal flow or West to East movement across the country again we will no longer call for cold weather and flurries almost every day. Get ready for plenty of ups and downs and big temperature contrasts to set up from north to south. Now all we need is a lot of energy to work with and I see that with the current Pacific set-up. Look for the southern jet stream to help mix things up and create a clash between the cold weather across the northern tier and the warm, moist air to the south. This should bring not one but two big storms across the U.S. next week and I still think Lafayette has a decent shot of being hit with at least one of the two systems. We would have the potential of seeing one of those classic 4 to 6 inch snows with either one of the two systems. We could hit the jackpot or nature's powerball if the storm track sets up right. I will keep a close eye on it along with meteorologist Stefanie Davis. Our first shot of heavy snow would be on Monday into Tuesday and another one late week.

Check back to see how far below average we are on snowfall and the latest model runs in here on Wednesday confirming those interesting stormy days ahead. For now though we are enjoying a couple of nice quiet days with temperatures close to where they should be for this time of year. Thursday still looks like the warmest day of the week with highs in the middle 30s. Have a great day and enjoy those milder southwest winds! I am going to go make sure my big snow shovels are in working order.

Celebrating our Country & A Happy 100th Birthday to Margaret Depp

I wanted to wish a special Happy Birthday to Margaret Depp who turned 100 years old this month. She is still very sharp and apparently a huge weather fan. She gives all of us a lot of hope and her age does not even begin to slow her down! I hope we are all still blogging when we turn 100, although by then I am sure it will be in a different form. Margaret still cleans and even does laundry by walking up and down the stairs. I could have used her help over the last several days with my kids either out of school or home from school. She even keeps a vegetable garden and drives. I think she looks terrific and it should make us all smile.


From all of us on the weather blog Margaret we wish you the best of birthdays. I looked over the weather records from 1909 and your year ranks 12th on our list of snowiest winters with just over 33 inches of snow. She was born in a colder, snowier cycle that tends to repeat every 30 years in Indiana. This includes the 1910s, 1940s, 1970s, and 2000s. I am sure she can tell you what goes around comes around when it comes to our Indiana weather. Snowfall has averaged between 20 and 25 inches since she was born with no discernible increase or decrease in average snowfall believe it or not. Today of course is inauguration day and she has was born when Teddy Roosevelt was president! Obama would be the 19th president to take office since she was born. She could not even vote when she was younger and now that has all changed. Hope is alive and well in America and Margaret could give you a thousand reasons why. Yes, anything in America is possible and it even includes turning 100! Happy Birthday Margaret!


We have lots of hope of in our weather forecast as well. This is usually our coldest week here in Lafayette but we are sitting pretty over the next few days! Our average temperatures will come out about a degree above average over the next four days or close to 12 degrees warmer than the past seven days. You can see on the synoptic map that our arctic air is being pushed out by a Pacific high pressure system. Last week we the big blue "H" came from the North Pole and we nicknamed it harsh. Now we can call the big blue "H" this week our friend because it will help warm us up above freezing on Thursday. We are waiting on a snowstorm to clear the east coast. Some parts of North Carolina could see more than six inches of snow with snowflakes flying as far south as Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. Now that will give new meaning to those beautiful white, sandy beaches that I remember all so well. Washington, D.C. is just missing out on a big snowstorm today with Ocean City, Maryland in line for several inches of snow. The nation's capital will have a few rays of sun with highs of 32 degrees. I am glad it looks good for all the traveler's that are arriving from all over the country. It would have been a real mess if that low pressure tracked a little farther west.


Congratulations! I do think you have already made it through the coldest part of the winter literally and climatologically. We have an average high of 31 and an average low of 14. The good news is our average temperatures start rising on Friday. The sun is rising much higher in the sky and Spring is only two months from today! You can see the tulip I got for my wonderful wife is blooming without a problem. It is her favorite flower. I just have kept it well watered and let it soak up the stronger sunlight with great results.

Now how about the big snowstorm that will likely hit our area next week. I think we will have a couple chances with one big hit or accumulations of 6 inches or more with at least one of the storms. What we have had so far this winter is a dominant northwest flow with the jet stream and it has not allowed those classic low pressure systems from the south move north with moisture and collide with our cold air masses. When we have had some Gulf moisture work our way we have not had enough cold air in place and that is why we have had at least four ice events. Next week the pattern is much different and I do see both cold air and moisture working together for the first time this winter. Randy in Frankfort has already picked up 6 inches of nickel and dime snow so far in January, but a real snow could very well be on the way. Now timing and exact amounts will be very tough this far out but this evening I will still post preliminary amounts and possible timing every day and as we get closer I will fine-tune it for you. This way when the big elephant shows up in your backyard you will not be surprised. God bless America and all you bloggers!

Latest Long-Range Snowfall for Lafayette over the next 10 days: Average of 10 models comes out to 8.8"

Nature Still Holding us Frostage with Some Relief by Late Week

You see BJ, the Prangley pet soaking up some of our nice sunsine today. The good news is he did not run from me today when I asked him if he wanted to go outside. BJ had a big birthday party over the weekend when he turned two. His sisters got him some fancy dog cookies and gourmet biscuits as you see below. We should have named him Riley. He has a life that most Kings would dream of and his birthday cookies smelled so good we were all tempted to eat them.


The good news is that we did thaw out a bit this weekend with temperatures briefly hitting 33 on Saturday after our coldest temperatures since the 1990s last week. Today is the anniversary of Indiana's coldest temperature on record set in New Whiteland back in 1994 when temperatures reached 36 degrees below zero. Luckily we are not seeing anything close to that on our bright Monday and we are basking in temperatures about 60 degrees warmer with highs near 20. It actually feels really nice and with all the sunshine to work with it is a beautiful day by Indiana standards, especially compared to what we went through last week. Nature truly makes all Hoosiers hardy and here is a great poem sent in by Karen Howell sharing this sentiment. We are not sure who the author is and I do not think Justin wrote it but it could be almost anybody from our viewing area.

It's winter in Indiana

And the gentle breezes blow

Seventy miles an hour

At twenty-five below.

Oh, how I love Indiana

When the snow's up to your butt

You take a breath of winter

And your nose gets frozen shut.

Yes, the weather here is wonderful

So I guess I'll hang around

I could never leave Indiana

'Cause I'm frozen to the ground!!

You can say this poem applies to all humans and pets here in Indiana. Here are more pictures of your furry friends you sent in and how they have coped with this colder weather.

This is a picture of Haley sent in by Angela Huffer. This beautiful dog is a very interesting mix of a bulldog and husky. He loves his bear he got from Christmas and makes sure to keep him warm as well during a pattern that really has not brought us a warm day in almost two weeks. What a great dog and a smart one too!

Diana Marion shows us Max the Chihuahua's favorite spot over the last couple of weeks. She says he only goes out for about one minute and then comes right back inside by the wood burner. Max believes in cold weather safety and wants to remind everybody to remember all the pets this time of year. Max has a point! This cold air has kind of held us all hostage or you can say "frostage". This cold air just does not want to go away and while you may be excited about a January thaw on the way I am thinking we may not see a true January thaw until we head into February. Nature goes by its own calendar in Indiana.

Yes, we could break freezing barely by later in the week but it will be a brief reprieve from winter and I think snow cover and cloud cover could hinder our warm-up and I am even concerned about a little freezing drizzle in the transition.

The bigger story developing is that our atmosphere may for the first time this winter team up this cold pattern with plenty of moisture by late weekend into next week. The forecast was for two big snowstorms for Lafayette this winter. So far we have been shut out and iced in but our chances are finally looking much better. We will talk about the deep freeze, snowstorms, and much more here on the blog over the next two days. It should be fun as always! I will see you soon. Take a deep breath, remember your manners, and let the blogging begin!

Warm Front Just the Cure for Cabin Fever

We could see highs near 30 today which will be about 50 degrees warmer than yesterday's low and we no longer will be colder than the actual North Pole! It is time to celebrate. Be careful of some blowing and drifting snow today with those gusty winds. Otherwise, our Alberta Clipper will bring less than a half-inch of accumulation this afternoon and tonight. Be safe and I will check back. What a difference a day makes. My dog is no longer running from me when I ask him if he wants to go outside. Speaking of dogs....check out Teri Trents beautiful babies...Sassy and Tyton! It is a good thing they were kept warm after some of the cold hard facts you see below!

Have a great weekend and I will catch up on some long-range forecasting and WILL let you know when our next BIG ONE or big snowstorm could be on the way and if we can expect any more arctic outbreaks this winter.

Congratulations! You Have Survived the Great Arctic Outbreak of 2009

We don't have the all clear yet with dangerously cold temperatures continuing through mid-afternoon but I can say THE WORST IS OVER! The actual air pressure outside right now is 30.77 inches as of 10 a.m. and this speaks volumes as to what is happening. This is one of the strongest high pressure systems Lafayette has seen in years and it helped to bring us our coldest temperatures since the 1990s over the past couple of days. I understand people woke up not believing what their thermometers were reading. Well you can believe it! There was nothing wrong with your thermometers and our weather team was proud because we were the only ones showing possible lows in the -20s for our viewing area. It has something to do with paying close attention to the people instead of the models! I appreciate all our weather watchers and weather bloggers that helped to keep us ahead of this historic cold outbreak! So here are the numbers you have been waiting for:

Record Lows:

-23 Rensselaer
-23 Francesville
-23 Logansport
-22 Attica
-22 Rochester
-21 Winamac
-21 Southside of Lafayette
-20 Fowler
-20 Idaville

Other incredible lows of note:
-19 Purdue Airport

North Pole, Alaska: 39 degrees above zero
Typical temp. of meat locker: 36
Avg. Temperature of household freezer: 0

That is right we were 60 degrees colder than
parts of Alaska this morning and about 20 degrees
colder than our freezers. This gives new meaning to
nature putting us in a deep freeze!


The old record low for our area was -20 set back in 1972 at the Purdue Airport. So while officially we did not break the record at that location this morning it is still safe to say that we still shattered dozens of records across the viewing area, including Tippecanoe County. The days of using the airports as the official measuring stick of how extreme the weather actually is are indeed over thanks to extensive weather watcher networks and great bloggers like you. This is why you have to be very careful when looking at so-called official weather data at only airports when trying to determine climate trends. It simply does not work.

Stay warm and get ready for above zero weather coming our way this afternoon and temperatures up to 50 degrees warmer by later Saturday. But there is a catch! There always is with Indiana weather. I will be back to talk more about this and how the Arctic Outbreak 2009 stacked up to our other arctic outbreaks. Meteorologist Stepanie Davis and I again thank you for all your help! This time I really am serious about printing up some T-shirts saying how we survived this cold air outbreak. Send in some ideas and let's all follow through on it! Word out of Illinois is that they did set an all-time record low yesterday in Rochelle at -37! Simply amazing! Here at home we did not get close to our state record low of -36 set in New Whiteland, but it felt every bit as cold! Now back to my kids. They are out of school for their second consecutive day! My hats off to TSC and other schools for putting safety first! Its time to head to the gym!

Coldest Day Since 1994 Gives Way to Coldest Night Since 1999

These numbers are just the tip of the iceberg from last night. That is right it is going to get even colder tonight. It will get worse before it gets better. This will be an arctic outbreak we will all remember! Officially in Lafayette we had a low of -10, Boswell -11, and Frankfort had a low of -13 degrees last night but with no clouds and lighter winds than last night most models are showing the Lafayette area being at least 5 degrees colder than last night.

Here is the latest....stay inside is my best advice. Willie the Chihuahua or Justin New's dog has got it right. In that little sweater he is wearing he would still have frostbite in just a few minutes if he went outside in this. It is painful out there. It is actually colder than a typical household freezer that has an average temperature of zero degrees. This dangerous cold will not be moving out of the area until tomorrow afternoon and believe it or not we could be near 30 by Saturday or about 50 degrees warmer than tonight. The worst of this cold wave hits tonight as the core of the arctic air builds in with high pressure. Here are the latest forecast lows and that is right.....some -20s!!!

Officially the record low for Lafayette is -20 set back in 1972 and even though it looks like we will not be quite that cold here in Tippecanoe County. Areas to the north which had a little more snow yesterday should have no trouble getting into that record territory, especially from Newton and Jasper Counties off the east in northern White, Cass, and Miami Counties.

You see the visible satellite picture from this afternoon and it shows the snowpack clearly in the white. Usually this time of year the white would indicate clouds but it was clear outside and it certainly shows where the snow is and you can make out all the river valleys. Basically the more snow, the lower you go. So while Tippecanoe County averaged about 3.5" yesterday, areas to the north were closer to 5" and this would mean even colder temperatures tonight. Snow is very effective at radiating heat away and with lighter winds moving in with clear skies and high pressure it all adds up to more trouble for us.
Check out the picture from today. You can tell this air mass if from the arctic. It is cold, dry, and very heavy so the air has trouble getting much lift. That is why there was not a cloud in the sky today. In fact on average many areas near the North Pole are like deserts with less than 10 inches of snow due to the fact they have these big high pressure areas that are formed in the very cold air like we are seeing here at home. Here are more cold hard facts that include today's daytime temperatures that stayed sub-zero and it looks like they will not go above zero until Friday afternoon at the earliest.
Gene and Charlotte in Monon actually lost power for about an hour. This is frightening. I am glad the power is restored. Stay safe and make sure to tune in tonight at 11 p.m. for latest on the arctic outbreak from where you live. Keep posting temperatures here on the blog if you can. The more the better. I will keep checking them. Our models have trouble many times dealing with a huge arctic outbreak like this so we had better use all the humans we can. You are my eyes and ears! Stay warm.