Nor'easter Taking its Cues from a Storm That May Be Named Sean!

Sunday, November 6, 2011

Today our nor'easter continues. A small craft advisory continues along with a high surf advisory. Northeast wind gusts on the open seas at 25-35 kts. Surf 8-10 feet with minor beach erosion. Seas a monstrous 10-16 feet. Keep the dingy at the dock if possible today. On land a gusty northeast wind continues at 20-30 mph. We do have a warmer layer of air but it is trapped 5,000 feet above us and it looks like it will have trouble mixing to the surface. This inversion caused by our nor'easter will have three big impacts on our weather. It will keep us cloudy throughout the day. It was stabilize the atmosphere with only a few sprinkles possible. Thirdly, temperatures will struggle into the 60s.

Our sluggish weather and nor'easter is taking its cues from an area of low pressure near the Bahamas spinning in place. You can see it on the satellite picture with the big swirl above. There is a possibility it could become subtropical Sean since it is now moving over 81 degree water. It will sit over this tropical water for at least 48 hours. This system's main impact on us at home would be to keep our nor'easter howling for another couple days. Right now the National Hurricane Center is giving it a 10% chance of being a hybrid storm.

This week will feature a supercell of storms across the deep South and it may impact the Panhandle of Florida with severe weather. By time it moves our way it will weaken but we cannot rule out a thunderstorm by late Thursday. We will turn very warm ahead of this front with highs bouncing back to near 80. Keep your eyes to the sky this week! We have an asteroid that is passing only about 3,000 miles from earth and we should be able to see it on Tuesday night! Our Veterans Day Parade looks sunny and breezy with temperatures in the lower 60s. Have a great week and keep looking up! That is the way to go!

I will see you tonight at 6, 6:30, and 11. Dan Hicken will be in the house and you never know what may happen on the set! I will also post more details of our big week ahead here on the blog this evening. I am actually running an hour behind today unlike most folks because my phone turned the clock back two hours. That is a fun story I will share as well here on the blog...although not so fun for me when I woke up. The main thing is I did get to the station in time for the early bird show! God bless! Have a great day!

Gales of November today, showers move in tonight!

Saturday, November 5, 2011

I had lots of feedback from soccer moms this morning on Good Morning Jacksonville and it can be summed up in three words...COLD, COLD, COLD....Suzanne was kind enough to send me in this picture between games. It also gave her a chance to thaw out her so-called frozen ears. She has some afternoon games to go to and unfortunately it will not feel much better. What a great Mom! The kids will appreciate this eventually even if you have to wait a few years....lol. What made those mid-50s feel so much colder was that north breeze! Cover up those ears for the afternoon games because it will only get worse with gusts at times from 30 to 35 mph.

It is that time of year when we get nor'easters that fire up off in the Atlantic caused by cold north winds meeting our tropical Gulf Stream that is still close to 80 degrees. This temperature gradient helps form a natural area of low pressure in the atmosphere and as we know the wind takes its cues from pressure differences between our ocean low and higher pressure to the north causes the wind to blow with gusto! The northeast wind is force 8 on the Beaufort Wind Scale which means we will have gale force wind gusts near 40 mph. To put it in perspective you only need 39 mph sustained winds around a warm core low pressure to have a named tropical storm. While not a tropical storm, we will can call this storm the Force 8 Nor'easter and it will be a force to be reckoned with throughout the weekend into next week!

The good news is we will not have a raw rain to go with the wind and ominous clouds today. Here is our futurecast pinpoint when and where we can expect the rain. Shower activity should hold off at the beaches until this evening and will not spread inland until late tonight. This means it looks good downtown for the fair tonight as well. The big story again today will be the chilly wind. Take the ear plugs and jackets if you are heading out to the Naval Air Show. Highs will only be in the lower to middle 60s with wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph.

A gale warning (wind gusts of 39 mph or higher) will continue offshore with 10-15 foot seas and wind gusts to 40 mph. A high surf advisory is also in effect for minor beach erosion due to 8 foot breakers today.

Rip currents will remain dangerous even for surfers. This nor'easter will linger through at least Monday with showers becoming more likely Sunday into Monday. But rain coverage should only be 30% tops and it will not be an all day rain! Check out the European accumulated rainfall map above. It shows most of the rain should stay east of highway 301 and many of us will not see one drop of rain this weekend especially in Georgia and interior Florida. So I would not cancel plans but just have your umbrellas handy. Temperatures will remain below normal with the cloud cover and a northeast wind continuing on Sunday. While warmer highs will only be near 70 once again which is a good six degrees below our 30 year average.

Our long-range forecast includes temperatures bouncing back near 80 by Wednesday and Thursday of next week ahead of our new weather system that could bring a severe weather outbreak to portions of the deep South and Midwest. By time it gets here it should be in a weakened state with a few showers returning late Thursday. Have a wonderful weekend! Enjoy your extra hour of sleep and turn those clocks back one hour before going to sleep tonight. It is also a good time to change your smoke detector batteries. Take care. My wife has some scrumptious chilly waiting for me. I will see you tonight at 6, 7, and 11! Thanks for reading and watching!

Resplendent, Riveting Rollercoaster Temperature Ride! Hang on, it is just the beginning!

Saturday, October 22, 2011

What a day it has been! The positive pink energy in the resplendent riveting weather was unmatched anywhere else in the country. This was the scene in downtown Jacksonville this morning and the Race for the Cure was incredible. I did not get to partake in it since I was doing Good Morning Jacksonville but I did go out and shake hands with folks and even paws! Even the dogs were out showing their support so we can finish not just this 5K but breast cancer once and for all.

The bright sunshine and wonderful heart-felt stories warmed us all up in a hurry which was a good thing. We officially tied the record low of 39 in Jacksonville set back in 1976. It was even colder at Cecil Field with reports of frost on some rooftops which is about a month early. You compare that with lows of 50 just 8 miles away on the tropical St. Johns River and that is pretty amazing. The river temperature is still a balmy 77 degrees thanks to it flowing from south to north from Central Florida. I know the manatees were relieved!

Even more riveting was the fact our temperatures rose about 30 degrees from 7 a.m. to 1 p.m. and before all is said and done we should top out at 70! You can thank the polar air mass which is very dry along with our Florida sunshine for the nice comfortable afternoon. The only clouds I could find anywhere close to home were made in our television studio this morning by Atomic Allie! I need to get some of that dry ice so I can become the mad meteorologist for Halloween! LOL. You also see it was nice having Deanna Fene in the house this morning filling in for Lenworth Kiese. She is always great to work with that is for sure.

The second part of the weekend will bring some of nature's clouds but not enough to keep us from enjoying mostly sunny skies and any rain shower activity will likely stay offshore and not impact our weather.  We may not have any rain showers but plenty of meteor showers to enjoy tonight! Make sure to look southeast especially earlier tonight before increasing clouds move in toward morning. There should be 10 to 15 shooting stars per hour or about twice the normal. This debris hitting our atmosphere is from Halley's comet.

But do not get too relaxed in this pattern. We have big weather-makers taking shape. We are watching the southern Caribbean which could spawn a tropical depression or possible named storm and a disturbance that will bring a huge snowstorm to portions of Denver and possibly the Midwest and Northeast this week.These two systems could combine forces to give us one heck of an interesting set-up by later next week and weekend. I see our temperature roller coaster just getting started with possibly a 50 degree range! So let's all enjoy this nice weather while we can. Next week we have everything in your seven day forecast except SNOW!

I look forward to seeing you at 6, 7, and 11 with your seven day forecast and I will tell you why this wild pattern may be something to get used to as we head into the winter! See you soon!

Colder in Sunny Florida than Buffalo, New York and the coldest is yet to come!

Thursday, October 20, 2011

Mostly sunny skies will continue with chilly breezes. Highs will only be in the lower to middle 60s. A small craft advisory will be discontinued after 5 p.m. offshore. A sunset will be at 6:51 p.m. tonight and once it goes down the winds will diminish and the skies will clear. Expect plummeting temperatures into the lower to middle 50s by 8 p.m. to near 60 at the beaches.

Tonight will be even colder than last night with lows near 40 inland to the upper 40s beaches. Keep the jackets handy as temperatures will only slowly moderate into the weekend.

A sneak peek for the Jaguars game: It looks good for tailgating Monday night with comfortable temperatures in the lower to middle 60s.

Strongest Cold front of the season arrives! Get out the Jackets!

Wednesday, October 19, 2011

It is easy to pick out the big changes on the way. Notice the wavy clouds over the Gulf of Mexico. These are cold air stratocumulus clouds caused by rapid, intense cooling of the atmosphere and this polar air mass is being ushered in by a cold front that is now howling through the area with wind gusts of 35 mph and brief heavy downpours.

We may have missed out on the severe weather last night but we are not missing out on one of the strongest surges of cold air this early in the season on record. I am heading to the attic to find the family jackets which will be a necessity by morning. The record for Jacksonville is 40 set back in 1989. I do not think it will get that cold at the airport. We will have too much wind and not totally clear out the clouds until the wee hours of the morning. This will keep lows in Jacksonville closer to the middle 40s with near 50 at the beaches and along the river. But, sure the normally coldest spots from Cecil Field into interior Georgia could see lows easily drop to near 40. The coldest morning will likely be Friday. I will be back to explain why and even show you the beautiful pumpkin moon pictures from this past weekend. So how strong is this front? Five-thousand foot temperatures will be dropping 2 to 3 degrees per hour for the next 12 hours. That tells me COLD AIR ADVECTION means business and this chilly autumn air mass may be here to stay for a few days. Have a great afternoon and stay warm!

Squally Saturday, Dangerous Surf, and the Nor'easter with no Name

Ponte Vedra electrified! Wow! The nor'easter with no name made a name for itself last night even if the National Hurricane Center does not name it Rina. This is not your typical nor'easter, not even close. This nor'easter will combine forces with a very broad unorganized area of low pressure developing in the Florida Straights and southwest Gulf of Mexico. Take a look.

There is so much shear involved and the temperatures aloft are so cold that this if it was named it would be called extratropical Rina. The latest satellite picture shows a burst of thunderstorms that have become a bit more organized. But also notice the tops are being sheared to the northeast. The area of low pressure is so large that it would be tough for it not to be torn apart even more by the Florida Peninsula as it rides to the north. So no we are not talking a hurricane or typical tropical storm. But maybe two systems that form into a formidle storm called Rina. What it means for us is unusually heavy amounts of rain, high surf, flooding, beach erosion, and yes even damaging wind gusts possible outside of thunderstorms. Take a look at the latest rainfall forecasts! Pretty impressive!

Keep in mind this is 8 weeks worth of rain in less than a week! Now timing is everything and based on the latest model data in this early afternoon on Saturday the worst part of this hybrid storm will be Sunday night into Monday. Not good news for the Monday morning commute but better news for your weekend plans. This tropical low pressure to the south will take its time developing due to high wind shear.

We are not talking about a total washout. But points farther south in Central and South Florida on our Saturday into Sunday will see some big problems including rain amounts over 6". Be careful traveling south. The farther south you go the worse the weather. This heavier, more widespread rain is what will likely move our way late Sunday hopefully after the Jags game. You will still need the ponchos but hopefully this weawther model is correct which does show the heaviest widespread rain south of Everbank Field until after everybody gets home safely.

But this will change by Sunday night at 10 p.m. as our two storms team up. I am not only worried about coastal flooding but inland flooding and drainage problems in those normally flood-prone spots in St. Augustine from King Street to near downtown Jacksonville in the San Marco and Riverside areas. Things could get really nasty if we get those heavy downpours occur near times of high tide. High tide is 7:40 p.m. Sunday and 7:58 a.m. on Monday in St. Augustine. Dowtown we have a high tide 3:50 a.m. Monday morning and again at 4:16 p.m. in the afternoon. Mayport has a high tide at 7:51 p.m. on Sunday and 8:12 a.m. on Monday. High surf advisories will continue all the way through Monday with seas building from 12-16 feet. Surf could easily make it over 12 feet. But this is not a storm you want to surf or swim in with those deadly rip currents.

The howling east-northeast wind will continue to bring gusts from 40 to 45 mph with  maybe gusts closer to 50 mph outside of thunderstorms by Monday morning. This is high enough to cause power outages and bring some trees down especially with saturated ground. Make sure to secure all loose objects in your yard. It looks like this nor'easter with no name will not relinquish the worst of its grip on our area until later on Monday. You stay safe and tonight I will talk more about this unusual nor'easter and also have an optimistic Jags forecast that calls for more of a white-out rather than a wash-out before our nor'easter gets really nasty!

Not your typical Nor'easter! Batten Down the Hatches

Good Friday morning! It was quite a wake-up call this morning with some thunder and heavy downpours for some of us. This activity will only increase and become  more widespread as we head through the weekend into next week. We have a local nor'easter that is just starting to crank up.

But this is a nor'easter with an attitude. Instead of only lasting a day or two this one could be a five day event with improving conditions not moving our way until at least Tuesday of next week. We are not only concerned about beach erosion and coastal flooding but inland flooding and drainage problems at the times of high tide this weekend.

It is easy to see why with the latest models showing the heaviest rain forecast I have seen all year long. That is right! Some areas could see in excess of a half-foot of rain. Some areas will see twice our normal amount of monthly rain in less than a week. If there is good news is that this could be a real drought-buster for many. We are still in a 10 inch deficit in many portions of Florida since 2010, while many areas in southeast Georgia need 20 inches of rain to finally break the drought.



This nor'easter will be energized by a tropical low pressure forming along an old stationary front in the Florida Straights. This will move northward by late Sunday into Monday. So believe it or not the worst of this nor'easter may in fact hold off until after the Jags game which would be nice! Now if this subtropical low pressure is named Rina it will not become a hurricane but the bad news is it will enhance our flooding, wind and beach erosion.