Stuck in the Liquid Sunshine in Florida, A Winter Wonderland in the Dakotas

You can see the lingering lousy low that will not go away in southeast Georgia this morning. This low pressure is the culprit for all of the heavy rain across the First Coast and do not expect it to move away anytime soon. We are in a holding pattern as this area of low pressure is stuck between a high pressure in the northern Gulf of Mexico to its southwest and a high pressure over the Carolinas to the Northeast. This is unusual for Florida in that we once again saw several hours of continuous rain yesterday. Usually it rains for less than 40 minutes this time of year and then you can get on with your plans. Not this time around. The rain was relentless and our rain-maker was the product of a trough split. You can say this beast formed due to the unusually stormy and snowy weather in the Plains and Midwest. Dickinson, North Dakota turned into a winter wonderland with its first June snow in 60 years.

Kids usually have the shorts out and swing away. Yesterday they were searching for sleds in their hats and gloves as two to four inches of snow blanketed the area.

The picture above tells it all. The sun pops out for a few minutes but do not let it fool you. It should really be called "liquid sunshine". With plenty of moisture, lift, and heating of the atmosphere this fires up more rain showers and thunderstorms. It's like nature turns up the heat on a stove and our atmosphere is that pot of boiling water. It certainly boiled over yesterday. You can see how the sunshine quickly gave way to a sky that was almost as dark as night. Here is how it looked before I got on Interstate 95 yesterday.

I quickly put away the camera and then went through a torrential downpour. This low pressure if anything will slowly drift south and then southwest over the next couple of days. I do not think we will return to our more typical summer pattern in Jacksonville until Tuesday at the earliest but at this point we will just have to take it a day at a time as this storm has a mind of its own. This weekend here in St. Johns we have totaled almost one inch of rain and look for another one to two inches of rain before this system finally winds down by the middle of next week.

At least I did get to the ballpark with my two oldest daughters on Friday night and watched the Suns beat the Mudcats 5 to 2. It was their first baseball game and they had a great time. We sat near the field near the first baseman and that kept us all on our toes. We did not catch any balls but had a few close calls. We saw a few towering home runs as the wind blew out to left field. It was also Hurricane Preparedness Night and we got our tracking charts. That is what a great night at the old ballgame. Check back on the blog for a tropical update coming your way on Monday which does include a tropical wave in the Caribbean that is trying to get its act together. Nothing is imminent but it may be a sign of a named storm in June over the next couple of weeks. I am heading to a birthday party. Thanks for reading and take care. Do not let the rain wash you away!

Surviving a Trip inside a Whale's Mouth & Nature Will Be More Like Orca This Weekend

The storms came fast and furious today and I survived a trip inside what some meteorologists call the whale's mouth. The bright clearing to the right would be where the whale of a storm was opening its mouth. The sunshine further destabilized the atmosphere which fired up thunderstorms. The teeth of the whale are the wild looking clouds in the center of the picture caused by the cool winds of the gust front pushing up the warm and humid air. Remember the cool air is heavier and the warmer air is lighter. The far left side of the picture is the whale's belly or where the heavy rain shaft is located. Unfortunately we have a few more whales in the forecast this weekend as an area of low pressure stalls out over the First Coast. You need to pick and choose your plans carefully. I do think it looks like a great night to get out to the ballpark tonight. My best advice is to get outside while you can and check out that beautiful moon that will officially be full on Sunday. I will have a weekend update coming your way dealing with all the rain and beware of Orca! Also I will post pictures from a possible tornado that hit Georgia and I want all my Indiana friends to be on guard for severe weather beginning late Sunday night and Monday.

Thunderstorms Coming Sooner Rather than Later

We are going to do this all over again today with more showers and thunderstorms except this time they will be coming at us even earlier and even areas like Baker, Columbia, and Union Counties will see storms erupt by 10 a.m. and this will move into much of the Jacksonville area between 11 a.m. and 11:30 a.m. The beaches will be soaked by noon. Be on the outlook for more heavy downpours and some gusty winds of 40 to 50 mph. There could be isolated gusts near 60 to 70 mph like we saw yesterday near Brunswick that damaged homes and toppled trees. Here is the latest from the Storm Prediction Center as of 8:30 a.m. and even though we are not in a weather watch they agree we need to be on guard.

PROFILES WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST AND ONLY MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE... HOWEVER APPEARS AN ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUST REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

The atmosphere is a bit more unstable than yesterday and we had gusts near 40 mph in the Jacksonville area. Today with CAPES above 1000 and some morning sunshine that has popped up I do think the storms will be a bit stronger so do not be surprised to see a thunderstorm warning or two. We should see two waves of rain. The second wave will arrive again by late afternoon and early evening before we dry out for the Jacksonville Suns game. It is not just any game but it is Hurricane Preparedness Night and I look forward to taking my kids and seeing the fireworks afterwards. I will check back with you today and we will check on how many of nature's fireworks we can expect this weekend. I also have tons of cool pictures to share from yesterday's storms, including rainbows. There will also be a full moon update and a Saharan dust update and what it means for our tropical season 2009. I will also include an Indiana update for my Midwest friends.

Back into Nature's Soup & Watching for Strong T-Storms

As of noon temperatures are in the lower 80s with dewpoints in the lower 70s and thunderstorms are already erupting across the Florida Big Bend area and moving our way. This morning we did have a few showers around as expected in portions of Baker and Ware Counties but this afternoon I think all of us get in on the action. Yesterday you see the thunderstorm that brought blinding rain to Fruit Cove Middle School. Today we will see a repeat of this with the main threats with these storms continuing to be lightning and heavy downpours. Keep in mind there have been two lightning fatalities across the country over the past few days so even if your weather radio does not go off with a thunderstorm warning take all storms seriously. The lightning fact of the day: Convertible rooftops offer you no protection from storms. You need to find a car with a metal roof because that is what protects you from lightning, not your vehicle's tires. We could have up to 100 lightning strikes per minute by late this afternoon.

I am going to go run some errands and cut my lawn before the rain gets here and then I will be back here on the blog with the latest on the storms, how much rain is on the way, and why the weekend looks like it is in jeopardy based on the latest ensemble runs.

What is an ensemble run? Yes, it is a whole lot different than your community 5K Run and Walk. It is a meteorologist's Zoo Run Run so to speak. Basically meteorologists like to get as many opinions as possible on the the weather by looking at more than a dozen weather models. Each model is based on a different mathematical model with its own assumptions. That is why we have a whole slew of low pressures on the map above all in different locations. While it may look confusing to you it really helps meteorologists cover as many bases as possible. I like looking at up to 20 different models a day. Usually by averaging out what the models are telling you it gives you a good guide to help forecast our weather makers, especially more than 60 hours into the future. Notice on the map above nature's boardroom (ensembles) cuts off another low pressure in western Florida this weekend. This will keep us in nature's soup or that southwest flow.

This means we will have to plan for thunderstorms not just for today but throughout the weekend. It will not be as nice as last weekend that is for sure. This does not mean we will have a total washout and I would still plan on going to the Trot for Tots at Jacksonville Municipal Stadium on Saturday morning. We will just have to remember our lightning safety rules and even beware of a higher risk of severe weather beginning this afternoon. Take a look at why below.

We have some stronger winds aloft moving into Florida over the next few days. Even though wind speeds of 25 to 35 mph does not seem too high at 5,000 feet above the ground it is plenty to crank out wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph. What happens is when thunderstorms tower up to 10 miles high into the atmosphere this wind energy spawns stronger updrafts. For every strong updraft there is a strong downdraft and as rain starts falling it pulls this extra wind energy to the ground at much higher speeds. Yes that wind can gain quite a bit of momentum when it starts from 40,000 and 50,000 feet high in the atmosphere. Many times you can get downburst winds or straightline winds that can cause considerable damage. We have already had flood advisories and severe thunderstorm warnings for Glynn and Camden Counties in Georgia. This trend should continue over the next couple days.

As far as rainfall amounts our modeling data usually does a poor job of handling just how much rain we are going to have especially when it comes to thunderstorms. Back in May most of our models were calling for about 3 to 6 inches of rain. That more than double in many areas. This time around we will not be fooled by the map above. You see one to two inches of rain on the way between now and Sunday. I think it is safe to say a much better average will be 2 to 5 inches of rain with a couple spots up near six inches before things try to dry out a bit by Monday but even that is not a guarantee at this point. Checking out satellite and radar maps are key to tropical forecasting this time of year and you see below why I am bullish on the rain.

I will talk more about our June Outllook for rainfall and tell you why we may have to get used to this pattern over the next few weeks. Be careful out there and thanks for reading.

Here Comes a June Monsoon! Downpours and Water Spouts Move Into Florida

May went in the books as one of the stormiest ever and after a quiet start to June get ready for Florida's version of a June monsoon. Already this morning strong storms are hitting the Florida Panhandle with water spouts near Panama City. The picture above was a water spout taken near Miami Beach a couple weeks ago with the last deluge of rain to hit the state of Florida. While I do not expect a repeat of record rainfall like we saw in May, most parts of Florida should end up with another one to three inches of rain over the next five days. This is good news, especially for areas of southern Florida where there is still a moderate drought. Here is the latest drought monitor available.

This map shows a huge turnaround of almost historic proportions. Since May 19th the state of Florida has gone from 80% drought coverage to just under 10%. The severe and extreme drought that covered 37% of the state now stands at 0%. Here closer to home there are no more drought conditions and parts of Flagler County went from a ten inch deficit to a ten to fifteen inch surplus in rainfall. This is truly amazing! Now we do average high evaporation rates this time of year in the hot Florida sun which comes out to close to five inches of water a week. So our plants and trees can dry out quickly even after record-setting rains. The good news is you can keep saving on your irrigation needs and help the Floridan aquifer. We will not need to water thanks to nature sending us a June monsoon, Florida style.

Usually this time of year we are used to a nice refreshing southeast wind off the ocean around a Bermuda high pressure offshore. So even on our hottest days, the nature offers some free air conditioning like we saw yesterday as highs dropped from near 90 to the lower 80s by early evening. It made for some great beach and pool weather and that Chamber of Commerce weather is quite common this time of year. My daughter Lauren shows us just what Chamber of Commerce weather is by enjoying the water slide. This weather pattern has even had one of my other daughters Abbey doing backflips as you see below. She still has no fear, except when it comes to severe weather.

Abbey knows the power of nature and we need to be on guard when the wind switches from the typical southeast direction to the opposite direction! Over the next couple of days our wind flow at all levels of the atmosphere is turning to the south and southwest. My Florida weather saying today is, "When the wind turns southwest, meteorologists have no rest. It usually correlates with some of our stormiest weather this time of year and the next few days will be no exception. So even though this monsoon will not last for a few months like we see out West or on the Arabian Peninsula we will have a mini version of it right here at home over the next few days. Be ready for more rain. You can see the stormy clouds taking over Florida this morning on the latest satellite picture.

We have a frontal boundary to the north moving south and an upper-level disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico moving our way. This is drawing up a lot of moisture and helping to turn our winds to the south and southwest.

As of early afternoon the forecast is on target as thunderstorms are popping along the two sea-breezes as you see above. It will be a day where I pick up my kids at the bus stop. Eventually both of these fronts will converge and work their way back to the east by this evening and as a Gulf disturbance moves our way we could even see a few showers and storms through the First Coast overnight which is not too common for this time of year. We may not see this pattern break until at least Sunday. Check back on the blog tomorrow for more on the June monsoon and your June Outlook to see if this will be a recurring pattern over the next few weeks. Have a great day and stay safe in the thunderstorms.

Revised Hurricane Forecast Calls for Lower Numbers But Caution Remains High

The angry ocean with waves up to 10 feet during the Storm with No Name back in May. We will be watching the ocean for tropical development more carefully since water temperatures are quickly warming up to 80 degrees or above. It will be a season where we can go from sunny to stormy in an instant.

Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray have just come out with their new tropical season forecast for 2009 and it confirms what we have been talking about here on the weather blog. My updated forecast last week was for 10 named storms and 5 hurricanes which is slightly below average. Dr. Gray's team is calling for 11 named storms and 5 hurricanes with 2 hurricanes with wind speeds at 111 mph or greater. The big reasons for an even more optmistic forecast than this team released a few weeks ago which called for up to 14 named storms and 7 hurricanes all has to do with sea-surface temperatures. The Atlantic Ocean is experiencing some of its coolest water temperature readings since 1994 and at the same time the equatorial Pacific Ocean is quickly heating up to above average values which tells us to get ready for another full-fleged El Nino. The El Nino could develop into a fairly strong one by time the peak of our season arrives which would mean more wind shear and less tropical storm development.

But as we saw in 1992 when there were only 7 named storms in an El Nino we had one monster category five hurricane that hit South Florida...that is right HURRICANE ANDREW. This pattern also tells us to be ready for tropical systems to pop quickly in areas near the coastlines since that is where all the shallower, warmer water will be located. This pop-up hurricane pattern has become more prevalent over the past couple of seasons and this year we will have to be ready again. Instead of days to prepare, we may only have hours to get ready for hurricane conditions like we saw with Hurricane Humberto in Texas back in 2007. Be ready. Know your storm surge and evacuation zones by clicking on this link below.

http://www.coj.net/Departments/Fire+and+Rescue/Emergency+Preparedness/Get+Ready/Evac+Zones.htm

If you live in St. Johns County make sure to click these links for critical information.

ftp://ftp.bocc.co.st-johns.fl.us/gis/media/MapMart/evacuation.

http://www.co.st-johns.fl.us/BCC/Emergency_Mgmt_Services/evac.html

You just have to click on the map and it will detail the quickest way to evacuate. Staying alert and being ready to act will be extra important this season.

This afternoon be ready for some changes to the forecast. We have had such beautiful weather around the area with 4 consecutive days of dry weather after 17 days of tracking storms in at least some parts of the area. A few isolated storms will pop up from Interstate 75 into areas near Baker County by mid to late afternoon along the sea breeze front. The dewpoints are high enough now that even areas near the river could see a pop up storm, but for today at least most of the rain should stay from Starke westward. It must be June and after all this is the time of year now when thunderstorm season gets into full swing. At least we have enjoyed some incredible weather as you see above. Notice the pink sunset delight on Sunday evening with the waxing quarter moon adding to the skygazer's delight. Contrast that scene to what we saw last night. Tropical clouds heralding the return of humidity put a ring around that same moon telling us that thunderstorms will be returning to North Florida.

Meteorologists like taking a look at dewpoints or the true measure of humidity in the atmosphere to determine if thunderstorms will pop. The higher the dewpoints, the better chance of thunderstorms. Notice the big changes in the dewpoint charts from yesterday to today and this is one big reason why a few isolated thunderstorms are going to develop over the area this afternoon.

The pink areas show where the sultry humid weather was located yesterday. Notice South Florida and its dewpoints in the lower 70s compared to our dewpoints here at home closer to the lower 60s. This is why we stayed dry and they had some thunderstorms with tops up near 45,000 feet. This nice dry slug of comfortable air will be something we will be wishing for as soon as this afternoon as dewpoints rise back into the lower 70s. The dewpoint map below for this afternoon tells it all.

I think most of our widespread thunderstorms over the First Coast will hold off until Thursday and Friday with a drying trend this weekend. It does look like we will be able to save on those watering bills again. Make sure to check back here on the blog tomorrow for more on this, how much rain you can expect, and which areas of Florida are still in a drought. But without further adieu here are some incredible storm pictures from the Midwest that has been rocked over the past few days and more specifically the Lafayette, Indiana area. Saturday night I received some incredible reports and pictures and felt like I was there. Thanks for keeping me in the loop. Here is a picture sent in by Teri Trent with not one but two pileus caps spotted in the towering cumulus clouds. This was the first sign of severe weather.

These "hats on clouds" are a sign of strong updrafts and plenty of moisture and instability in the atmosphere. This means nature is close to its tipping point and it was as you can see below. Randy Rogers captured these wall clouds just east of Frankfort. These are some of the most impressive pictures of ominous clouds I have ever seen.

Developing....

Hurricane Season is Here and it Should Be Anything But Normal

It's official! Hurricane season is underway. Things are quiet based on the latest satellite picture due to extensive shear in the Gulf, Carribean, and Lesser Antilles depicted by the yellow and white colors above. Unfortunately do not get used to it. I am watching a more active Madden Julian Oscillation developing, a ridge expected to develop over the Gulf, and an intensifying El Nino. By this time next week things will look a lot more interesting and by later next week we may be talking about our first storm of the season developing. All we have been hearing from the experts is how it looks to be a normal year with about 10 named storms and six hurricanes. But the latest look at tropics looks like it is anything but normal. Nature has done a complete flip-flop from what I am used to seeing when it comes to pressure patterns, trade winds, sea surface temperatures, and moisture. This means be ready for anything and everything this season.

Tropical Storm Abby's track that impacted the First Coast on June 7,1968 with sustained winds of 50 mph along with flooding. This year some models are showing a repeat of a wild start to our hurricane season.

There are cooler than average waters over the deep tropics along with a stronger than normal Azores High Pressure system bringing a drier than average atmosphere with Saharan African dust primed to take over the Atlantic. This will lead to higher pressures forming in the Intertropical Covergence Zone and will cause a distinct domino effect that will bring corresponding lower pressures and a higher risk of development closer to the land areas including the coastline of the United States.

What this means for us at home is not the best of news. Tropical systems will have less of a chance to turn out to sea like we see so often when they approach the northeast Florida Coast and we may have less time to prepare when one of these storms form. You remember Humberto that hit Texas back in 2007 when that storm went from a tropical disturbance to a full-fledged hurricane in less than 24 hours. This is a disturbing trend that could be repeated over the next few years. Pop up thunderstorms will not be the only thing in our Florida forecast this summer but more ominously "pop-up hurricanes". So when you hear that it is important to be ready and prepared ahead of time. This is the year to heed that warning.

If this is not enough, I also see an early tropial season like we saw in June, 1968 when we had three named storms. Normally the tropics do not get cranked up until August and September. This year we have similar weather patterns in place that match up eerily with 1968. This is what we call an analog year. By knowing what happened in the past it can help be a guide for you to help you understand what may come together in the atmosphere in the future. It is a great forecast tool and we will see if it works this year.

Hurricane Dora's track above. It was a category two storm that brought an average of 10 inches of rain across Northeast Florida. The May storm of 2009 actually brought a little more rain to the area with an average rainfall of 12 inches!

Consider what happened in May a warning sign for what we can expect in the tropics this year. We were very close to having two named storms in May in the Atlantic basin. The storm with no name brought rain amounts never before seen from a non-named storm according to many locals. Clay and Nassau Counties ended up with 8 to 12 inches. Duval County had 10 to 17 inches of rain, St. Johns and Putnam Counties had 12 to 18 inches of rain, while Flagler County had 24 to 30 inches of rain. This was more rain than Hurricane Dora brought to the area and brought back bad memories of Tropical Storm Fay. The May storm washed away roads and in its wake will have a major impact on how we will view this hurricane season. This year throw out all the percentages. Areas that normally are in the middle of common hurricane tracks like south Florida where chances of hurricanes each year are near 16% may have less of a threat while our backyards have a higher risk. That is right to emphasize this remember that areas that normally are not prone to hurricanes will have a higher risk and this year and it includes the Jacksonville and St. Augustine areas. In a typical year northeast Florida has a 2 percent chance of a hurricane or a 5% chance of a direct hit from a tropical storm. This gives our area the lowest risk of being hit by a hurricane in the state of Florida, but it can and does happen. We all remember Hurricane Dora that hit the First Coast as a category two storm. You see its infamous path above.

Here is a picture of the Castillo de San Marcos in St. Augustine. It may not have been called our country's oldest city if it were not for a hurricane that hit the First Coast in 1565!

We all hear that before Dora no other hurricane had every been recorded. This is not true. It may be true in modern history but according to historical records northeast Florida has been hit by several hurricanes and the city of St. Augustine you see above may not have been founded in 1565 if it were not for a hurricane that hit the area. The hurricane actually helped the Spanish defeat the French forces and this in turn helped it become the first European Settlement in the United States. There are also reports of huge hurricanes that hit our area back in 1765, 1837, and 1848. Now are you ready to put together your family disaster plan. Okay, you can go to this link and get started.

http://www.floridadisaster.org/family/

It should not take you long to fill out all your necessary information. It took my family less than a half-hour. Have a great day and tomorrow we will take a look at why humidity and thunderstorms will make a return to your forecast as early as tomorrow. I will pinpoint when and where those finicky Florida thunderstorms will pop! To all my Indiana friends....batten down the hatches once again today. I will make sure to post some of your incredible pictures of pileus caps and wall clouds taken on Saturday evening. The same stormy set-up will be in place the next couple of days and this front will actually spawn more storms here in Florida by late week.