Continuing to watch Live Doppler Radar, rain and thunder should clear by early afternoon

Sunday, March 6, 2011  7 a.m.

Good Sunday morning. Our weather team is busy tracking two lines of showers and thunderstorms. Here is the latest from our First Coast News weather app. Notice the first line of rain first thing this morning will likely be just in the form of rain. Your live doppler radar is not showing any lightning. This should be enough to stabilize our atmosphere enough so we will not have to worry about any widespread severe weather like we saw yesterday across portions of Louisiana. At the same time the actual upper-level disturbance responsible for yesterday's severe weather is quickly lifting northeastward. The combination of the two should keep our second line of showers and thunderstorms that moves through by late morning and early afternoon on the tamer side. We could still have some wind gusts near 40 mph. We will continue to watch the second line that moves our way closely. But for now the news is good. The Storm Prediction Center does not have our area in a severe risk and I have decreased our chances of having any damaging wind gusts to 5% or less.

The latest severe weather indices have also decreased overnight for us.

Lifted index is now a more stable -0.5......usually for strong storms in Florida we want this number to be at -3 or less

The CAPE value or convection available potential output has also come in at 330 which is less than the 600 we saw yesterday.....usually for strong storms in Florida you want this value in the thousands

The Energy Helicity Index is also coming in near zero. This same index was between 2 and 3 yesterday in Louisiana. Anything at 1 or above can be cause for concern.

Latest convective wind gust potential for us has dropped from 46 mph to 41 mph in last 12 hours.

Remember models are only guides and we will still keep our eye to the sky today for some possible gusty storms by late this morning and early afternoon. But I do not expect scenes like the one you see above in Louisiana yesterday to be repeated today here at home. It does look like we pick up some needed rain while dodging the worst of the strong thunderstorms. We will clear out as expected as we head through the afternoon. If anything changes our weather team will be the first to let you know and make sure to head to firstcoastnews.com to track these two lines of rain. We have at least at 2 minute advantage with your only live doppler radar which comes in huge on days like today. Have a great day!

Keeping our eyes to the sky and focusing on our 2 minute advantage!

March 5, 2011 Saturday 9 p.m.

The radar is still lighting up in western Florida! There have been some wind gusts near 50 mph but so far the good news is I have not received any damage reports in Florida and the tornado watch should be allowed to expire at 11 p.m. as this line continues to weaken as it moves to the north-northeast. This is the same line of storms that brought 4 tornado reports to Louisiana including an EF 2 tornado with estimated wind speeds near 120 mph. The tornado was 3 football fields wide and unfortunately there has been a confirmation of a fatality.

So what is the latest for us! Well I have been watching the models closely all night and I think we are still on track for rain showers and thunderstorms to break out in the morning and quickly exit our area in the early afternoon. The dynamics that brought the tornadoes to Louisiana to our west will also lift well north of our area. So even though we have plenty of wind shear and moisture to work with I do think the lack of instability will keep our wind gusts in the 35 to 45 mph range on Sunday. Here is the very latest on the timing graphically to help you plan your day out on Sunday.

Notice we will have bright reflectivity on the map which means heavy downpours and lightning will accompany our gusty thunderstorms. The line will quickly be moving from west to east. Notice below by early afternoon I am expecting most of the activity to quickly move offshore.

We will still keep our eyes to the sky and watch things closely for you on Sunday. If this line should come later rather than sooner our chances of seeing stronger storms increase dramatically. But for now with guarded optimism I can tell you our chances of seeing any severe thunderstorms on Sunday remains low and we should even be able to get outside during the afternoon and take in the nice warm breezes and sunshine. Have a great rest of your weekend and remember you can go to our web-site for your only Live Doppler radar tomorrow morning to keep you ahead of any storms that do develop. In the meantime we will zoom into some of those storms at 11 p.m. I will catch you on the tube. Thanks for reading.

Quiet start to our weekend could bring a rude awakening Sunday morning

Saturday, March 5, 2011

Saturday, March 5, 2011 4 p.m.

What a great start to our weekend with highs reaching 77 as forecasted and it was nice to see increasing sunshine during the afternoon. Our nice newly  painted satellite truck was gleaming in the parking lot and able to show off its new colors. But it is meteorological Spring and we are used to weather changes fast and furiously. You see that fair weather cloud well they can grow into strong thunderstorms in as little as 20 minutes this time of year! Tonight I think we do not have to worry about that but we will have balmy breezes with lows in the lower 60s with thickening clouds. Early Sunday morning a line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to race our way. There could be an isolated strong storm with the main threat being damaging wind gusts.
Even though the Storm Prediction Center has not put us in a severe weather risk area we will have to watch it closely. We have high wind shear values over our area. The actual severe weather risk is close to 10%. This is the potential for isolated damaging wind gusts of 58 mph or greater impacting your back yard. The main inhibiting factor keeping our severe chances low at this time will be the instability that fuels Spring storms. Since the line of storms is coming sooner rather than later the atmosphere will be more conducive to producing wind gusts near 40 to 45 mph. But watch out if the line of storms holds off until the afternoon. Our severe chances would go way up. Keep checking back with us with your one and only Live Doppler radar on-line and on the tube. It is a valuable tool on days with developing thunderstorms.

The good news is it will not be an all day rain on Sunday and we should clear out in the afternoon in time for the 5K Colon Awareness run and walk at Jacksonville Beach. This great event starts at 3 p.m. Highs will be in the middle 70s with a west wind at 10-15 mph.

I will check back with you this evening and post some cool weather graphics and have the latest. See you soon on the tube and back here on the web!

Mardi Gras Weekend for St. Marys and nature is cranking up the volume too!

Friday, March 4, 2011

Our Spring theme continues here on the weather blog today. We have talked about the Spring breezes, blooming plants, trees, outrageous pollen counts and even a few light Spring showers. But nature is cranking up the volume on our Spring party based on the latest weather models. That is right we are talking forte tempetes which is French for strong storms! We are concerned about Spring tides now and maybe even a few stronger Spring thunderstorms threatening Florida. While some areas have had 2 tornado outbreaks in Tennessee over the past week we have been unscathed here in the Sunshine State but things will be a little more interesting for us this weekend. We really do need more significant rain. You see the 29.5 raindrops that fell on my car this morning. This was barely enough to keep wet the sidewalks. This did not provide any real relief for allergy sufferers. It is bad enough we have one of the highest pollen counts in the country but it certainly is made much worse on these windy days like we have been experiencing. This is also compounded by many areas seeing only trace amounts of rain over the past 3 weeks here at home. The good news in this forecast is that we have more significant rain back in the forecast this weekend but we will also have plenty of dry hours for all your plans this weekend which includes the big Mardi Gras celebration in St.Marys on Saturday.

Our Friday will start with a few light showers but we should dry out and it will turn brighter just in time for your TGIF afternoon. Here is the latest sky condition as of 11:30 a.m. It looks like the blue skies are winning out as our weak low pressure offshore starts to move away. Highs will be in the upper 60s beaches to lower 70s inland. The bigger story will be unusually high tides created by the sun, moon, and earth all being aligned. These are called Spring tides. These unusually higher tides can be made worse by a persistently strong onshore wind. Today as a result of an east wind at 20 to 30 mph we will have minor beach erosion at the times of high tide. Our next Mayport high tide is at 8:35 p.m. tonight. Even though the wind will let up on Saturday more beach erosion is possible again Saturday morning with a high tide at 8:54 a.m. The wind will shift to the southwest on Sunday which will help ease any flooding concerns.

Those Spring breezes will eventually bring us a cold front by Sunday afternoon. The latest guidance does show some instability and higher winds aloft near this front which could mix down to the surface if a line of thunderstorms holds together. Already the Storm Prediction Center has put the Panhandle of Florida in a slight risk for strong storms on Saturday. So we will have to watch it closely here at home. Right now the main threats with these storms for us on Sunday will be gusty winds of 40 to 45 mph mph and maybe some pea size hail with cold air aloft. The main line of showers and thunderstorms should move through in the afternoon. The best news is most models are showing a quarter to a half-inch of rain on the way! I do want to make sure you know we are not talking about a significant severe weather outbreak like we saw across the country earlier this week, but we do need to keep our eyes to the sky especially on Sunday. Would I cancel any plans or tee times. Not just yet, we need to see how this system evolves and it certainly will not be an all day rain on Sunday.

One thing that may help hold these thunderstorms together would be the much warmer Gulf of Mexico waters that are now above normal. Remember the weather rules....when thunder roars head indoors and cool water kills storms while warm water intensifies storms! The Storm Prediction Center which always does a great job and I have a couple friends and former interns that work there seem to be in agreement. Check out their latest severe weather discussion this morning for Saturday and Saturday night: ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOWER MS VLY/DEEP SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO THRIVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AMIDST A MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND INCREASING LARGE-SCALE UVV..AMPLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY/CNTRL GULF COAST STATES FOR AT LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SIXTY PLUS DEG SFC DEW POINTS COMBINED WITH THE MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN ERN LA...SERN MS...AND SRN AL MAY YIELD EMBEDDED STRONGER STORMS WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO...DAMAGING WIND GUST OR HAIL. MUCH LOWER SVR PROBABILITIES WILL EXIST FARTHER INLAND WITHIN A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL DEVELOP SSEWD OFFSHORE IN SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY.

This brings us to our blog weather question of the day. When was the last time Jacksonville had a severe thunderstorm watch? Okay time is up...here is your answer and it has been way too long as you can see. Sunday we do have a chance for a weather watch and we will keep you updated!

Have a great day! Tune in tonight at 5, 5:30, 6, and 11. I will have the latest on rain amounts and our severe weather chances. You also will not want to miss your Mardi Gras of weather forecasts. I think Patty is bringing in some props for me to use!! I am heading to the library to prepare for next week's Space Night at Durbin Creek Elementary. I cannot wait.

Brisk Spring breezes, Spring tides, and Spring showers

Thursday, March 3, 2011

Spring has certainly Sprung across the area. You can feel it, smell it and even feel it! I was out in the yard for several hours the last couple hours trimming those bushes down, the dead palm fronds, and picking gargantuan weeds. Yes, it was like a jungle in parts of my yard but it is looking better. I am a little sore but hey it was all well worth it! In this forecast we will be feeling the pollen too as Jacksonville continues to have one of the highest pollen counts in the country. You see my Dad's tulip tree in Mandarin. Yes, what a beautiful sight and he certainly has the gift of the green thumb. He lives at the house with all the blooming flowers. But it is bittersweet. What makes the pollen count even higher this time of year is when the wind picks up. Nature is right on cue with all this wind. This is our windiest month on average followed by February, April, and January. It was more like the windy city of  Chicago today with gusts of 33 mph.




Now these brisk Spring breezes will be with us at least through Friday. You can see why. The tight pressure gradient continues over our area due to that monstrous high pressure system over New England that brought them toe-numbing cold. One thing I am concerned about are the Spring tides that could work with all that wind bringing some beach erosion problems. Tomorrow morning we have a high tide at St. Augustine at 7:39 a.m. and Mayport at 8:21 a.m. What happens with these Spring tides are the moon, earth, and sun are aligned. The gravitational pull of the sun is also added to the much bigger pull of the moon creating higher tides. This gravitational force that causes the earth's tides is called the traction force. Spring tides are not named for the season but the tides that are 20% higher during the new and full moons. We are certainly at the new moon with the moon at only .003% illuminated. Since we are at a new moon and we have had a strong fetch over the ocean for the last couple days it all adds up to beach erosion troubles. The good news is I am only expecting it to be minor. But our weather team will keep a close eye on it for you. The good news is the high pressure you see above which is our big wind-maker will move away by Saturday helping the wind to ease up.

What causes the wind? That is our blog question today. Well think of the wind being caused by pressure differences and temperature differences which in fact are influenced by the earth's tilt. This tilt which causes our seasons does not allow the sun to heat the earth's surface equally and as a result it is always out of balance when it comes to both temperatures and pressures. Since air flows from areas of higher to lower pressure you get plenty of wind here on earth. We also have a huge temperature range today from north to south across the United States ranging from the single digits in Maine to the lower 80s in Florida. This has caused a strong zonal jet stream to develop and when you add in some March sunshine it does not have much trouble mixing down so some of those higher winds aloft. Today we had hurricane force winds at 36,000 feet!

Check out the impressive cirrus clouds above showing the strong west winds over our area. This same jet stream will have to be watched closely by Sunday. If it combines forces just right with a weather system moving our way it may mix down some of those higher winds aloft bringing us damaging gusty thunderstorms. I will have more on this here on the blog for your Friday. In the short term we will just have a few coastal showers develop tonight primarily east of Interstate 95. While there may be a few wet roads in the morning I do not see the rain as being much of a weather factor with most of us once again missing out on some pollen relief. We certainly need the rain with many parts of our area especially in Southeast Georgia not seeing a drop of rain for over three weeks now. At my house we had just enough to wash the pollen off my car but my new plants could use a real watering from nature and my car is ready for a free car wash. Right now it does look like Saturday will be the drier and nicer day this weekend with rain and even thunderstorms coming in Sunday and I do think most of us should see some rain. Make sure to check back on the blog. In the meantime I am heading into work and it will be nice to get some rest and relaxation after all that crazy yard work! See you soon.

March comes in more like a schnoodle! No snow repeat of 1986!

March 1, 2011

There is Gitty and she is loving the cooler breezes and drier weather moving in this Tuesday afternoon. She was a special visitor at First Coast News and was really getting into all the exciting stories. She even jumped up on one of the editing desks to get a better look. Yes, she is Justin Patterson's pride and joy and you can see why. Yes, you can say March came in more like a friendly schnoodle than a lion. In 1986 March came in like an angry lion when we were covered with a half-inch of snow. That is right! Do you remember? I can confirm that Chief Meteorologist Tim Deegan called for snow. He told me everybody was laughing at him because nobody thought it could snow in March. Well Tim and nature got the last laugh. Great job Tim and the weather in March here in Jacksonville is no laughing matter. It has been as cold as 23 back in 1980 and as hot as 91 in 1974. We have been drenched with over 7 inches of rain in just one day back in 1970. In 1993 I will never forget the Super Storm that brought severe storms with 76 mph winds. I was doing weather observations for Tim as an intern and I almost blew off the  roof with my glasses! Not only were the power outages and downed trees but we also saw snow flurries all in a stormy unforgettable span of only 12 hours! So remember if the forecast sounds a bit strange, remember the lion is always lurking when it comes to our weather in March. If Tim and I see snow we will let you know. But for now I think we are safe from snow.

Now this morning some of us were wishing for a bit more rain. Most areas as expected had less than a quarter of an inch with most of us hovering around a tenth of an inch. There were a few spots that did really well in areas that needed it most. This was across areas of Clay, Putnam, St. Johns, and Flagler Counties. There was a nice stripe of .25" to .50" of rain from near Middleburg and Palatka and it crossed into the World Golf Village and St. Augustine and points south. This rain could not come soon enough for these areas after yesterday's raging 100 acre wildfire near the Flagler-St. Johns County border.

Here was the aerial view of the fire we showed on First Coast News and you can see the gridlock. The warm, dry southwest winds whipped the fire into a frenzy and reduced visibilities so much that Interstate 95 had to be shut down in both directions. The good news is the fire is under control thanks to the wonderful job by the firefighters. Today we will have a lighter wind and the wind will shift off the ocean bringing in higher humidity which will continue to aid in snuffing out the fire for good. Today fire season officially begins and scenes like this unfortunately could be repeated over the next several weeks. But at least I do see an onshore flow the rest of this week which will help settle things down. The first two weeks of March favor precipitation at least closer to normal with temperatures still remaining above average, but not as warm as we have seen. There will also be a couple cool spells thrown in there and I do think most of us today and tomorrow afternoon will hold in the 60s.

 I expect a very active pattern across much of the United States for at least the first two weeks of March which will actually have more of a bearing on our weather here at home since we have lost the blocking ridge here in the Southeast. We have a blog link of the day that really sums of the pattern. This link does a great job of updating all the storm reports around the country and notice there is plenty going on!

 http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/sgx/kml/lsr.php?cwa=nws&lsr=All&start=201102270000&end=201102281348

The San Diego National Weather Service did an outstanding job of putting this together and this map will continue to light up with our next big weather-maker moving into California by tomorrow. This could bring another swarm of storms across the country by late week and impact us with heavier rain and maybe even some thunderstorms to watch closely on Sunday! Stay tuned.

Now with a meridonal flow continuing around the country this could have an impact on the Gate River Run which is on March 12th. Here is me and my ravishing wife after the run last year. What a rush running over that bridge. Notice it did get pretty toasty out there last year. This year I am favoring more clouds and cooler weather. Instead of 70s I am favoring temperatures starting in the 50s and maybe topping out near 60 by the end of the race. The latest models are showing a front moving through but there is no way I am putting rain in the forecast just yet. I will continue to fine-tune this forecast here on the blog as we get closer. But, the big thing is temperatures and I am confident of a much cooler Gate River Run this year with more of a northwest wind at 10 to 15 mph. Look for faster times and lots of fun! I look forward to training in today's cooler weather. You take care and make it a great day. Do not let the clouds get you down. Remember the sun is always shining and you can do anything you set your mind to no matter what the weather. Have a good run!

We say goodbye to meteorological Winter feeling like Summer!

Monday, February 28, 2011

What a finish to February and yes I do think we have a good shot of at least tying if not breaking the record high of 87 at Jacksonville International Airport set back in 1962. St. Augustine will also have no trouble reaching well into the 80s and you may want to go to the top of the lighthouse to take in some of those refreshing southwest breezes. We have all the ingredients in place to have the warmest February 28th in modern recorded history! The 5,000 foot temperatures are now up to 58 degrees and with plenty of sunshine this time of year and tons of warm air advection you can add about 30 degrees to come up with your surface temperature highs!  You go nature! Even at the beaches temperatures will reach their highest levels of the year in the middle 80s.Yes, it is all roses and sandcastles as we say goodbye to a winter we will never forget that included our first trace of snow in many spots since 1989! Meteorological Spring officially begins on March 1st and many really would like to have some Spring weather. Here on the blog yesterday I did say that the pattern did favor going right into summer with warmer than average temperatures expected for March based on prior years that have behaved like this one, but in the short term though we do have some cooler Spring temperatures in the forecast so we will have to enjoy them while we can.

This cooler weather will be ushered in by the strongest cold front in weeks and it will sweep through first thing Tuesday morning. Now that it is March and the heart of our severe weather season we watch these fronts very closely. The good news is that it is coming through late tonight and first thing Tuesday which means our atmosphere will be much more stable. We may have a rumble of thunder up near Waycross and Alma late tonight, otherwise I do not think this line of rain will bring much in the way of lightning and will continue to weaken as it moves south. This is the same front that has caused over 50 damage storm reports across the country including an EF-2 tornado in Dubois County, Indiana with wind speeds near 120 mph. Two homes had collapsed walls and lost their rooftops. An RV was tossed across the road like a toy. Luckily, everybody is okay. We can count are blessings that we will not have to worry about any severe weather here at home. But we really could use the rain and unfortunately the latest models show the rain drying up as it moves south. I think most of us will see amounts of less than a quarter-inch.

This is not good news for our drought but at least I do see better chances of rain for us over the next 2 weeks. I do not think we will see another stretch of almost 3 weeks without a drop of rain. You can see those familiar green rings around our retention ponds showing the dropping water levels.  After starting the year with a rainfall surplus we have had a rain deficit of 2 to 2.5 inches of rain over the past bone-dry 18 days. The good news is the southeast ridge that has been blocking all our rain is not expected to be a permanent fixture like we saw for much of 2010. But the overall pattern does still favor drier and warmer than normal this Spring and wildfires will continue to increase across the area. Now to our weather blog question of the day. Will we get to see the Discovery Space Shuttle fly-by at night over Jacksonville?

Here is a shot of the Discovery taken from the International Space Station before it docked up. There are really no words to describe this incredible image.( Goosebumps!)Now here is the good news. The latest from NASA is the shuttle will be staying in orbit a little longer than originally planned. This is exactly what we needed to hear to see the shuttle here at home, because it is in the earth's shadow over our part of the globe at night through at least March 8th. Without sunlight illuminating our space ship at night we cannot see it.

Now if it is still in orbit on March 9th which now looks more likely we will be able to see it in our night sky. Look north-northwest at an elevation of about 17 degrees beginning at 7:50 p.m. The magnificent light will cross our skies in 2 minutes and exit to the north-northeast at 7:52 p.m. at a higher elevation of 52 degrees. Now keep in mind it will be preceded by the International Space Station at 7:49 p.m. Even better, we should be able to see both separately in the sky at the same time without binoculars. A lot also depends on our weather. It looks like we do have a lot of clouds in the forecast this week beginning on Tuesday, but next week favors us clearing out once again for good viewing. I will keep you updated here on the blog as we get closer. Exciting stuff!

Well I better get back to some Spring cleaning and maybe work on some dance moves. You see anchor Len Kiese working with me on a dance called the Len Bounce during commercials on Good Morning Jacksonville. Len was trying to be patient with me. That guy is not only one of the most professional anchors I have ever worked with but an awesome dancer and teacher. My goal is to take my wife dancing. I was having problems coordinating my shoulder shrugs with a little swagger in the hips and legs. He was trying to get me to loosen up like I was in front of the weather wall pointing at a storm. It did work. Practice makes perfect. I am not ready for any you tube videos just yet but just wait! My garage also needs some work. I will also make sure not to pack away the jackets in the attic just yet with cooler 60s returning to our forecast tomorrow and even some lows in the 40s by the middle of the week. You have a great day and keep those great questions coming and thanks for reading. We are less than 2 weeks away from the Gate River Run and tomorrow here on the blog we will have a sneak peek forecast. I know its brave this far out but we hit the Donna Marathon forecast right on the head several weeks out. Today's running mantra: A new season is here and it is time to run with no fear! Do not be afraid to sweat! Your a running machine without a regret!