Nature Lets Out the Dogs, Dewpoints, and Downdrafts

This is vintage dog day weather. Notice Tiger on the right is licking his chops and BJ on the left looks like he is ready to pounce on the treats I was holding up. Who let the dogs out? Nature! You can walk to your mailbox out there this morning and get a good workout in. What happened to our comfortable weekend? The dewpoints are what happened. This is the true measure of humidity. When your dewpoints jump from the 50s to the 70s the atmosphere can hold twice as much water vapor. Notice the dewpoints above will be an unbearable 72 today after only being close to 56 on Saturday. The more water vapor in the air, the more uncomfortable it is, especially as temperatures climb into the 80s. Anytime your dewpoint reaches near 70 or above that is considered oppressive.

Why does it feel more like Florida, Mississippi, or Lousiana out there? You can blame this Bermuda high pressure off the East Coast you see below. When you walk outside it does feel like you are wrestling an alligator down in Bayou country.The clock-wise flow around this high pressure brings plenty of moisture or maritime tropical air our way. It is our heat pump this time of year and we really feel it as it expands and grows stronger in July and August. So remember to blame the Bermuda high and not me.

I am an avid runner and I do tell runners to run mainly before 9 a.m. in this weather and after 8 p.m. at night. The heat really takes a toll on your body and it really is not worth taking a chance in that steambath outside. Your body simply cannot effectively cool itself down and if you push yourself too hard it can be really serious. You have to be weatherwise this time of year. Remember the most weather-related fatalities every year comes from not flooding or tornadoes, but hot weather.

Here is what you need to know.When you combine the heat and humidity there is what is called the heat index. When the heat index temperature is 94 or above like we will see today that when you have to exercise caution. Keep in mind this is a shade temperature. To find your runner's or workout temperature this time of year, take the actual temperature and add at least 15 degrees. Now if it becomes humid or If the dewpoints are 70 or above add 25 degrees. If it is a cloudy day in the summer with lower humidity you still add 10 degrees. So for instance today's forecast high is 87.When you use my formula and add 25 degrees with 70+ dewpoints it comes out to 112 degrees. This is your runner's temperature today at 4 p.m. Even this morning by 10 a.m. with temperatures near 80 the runner's temperature would still be 100 to 105. So remember the early bird gets the worm. Overdoing it in this weather is just not smart, even if you are Hercules. I do practice what I preach and over the weekend even with the comfortable humidity I did my 11.1 mile long run on the treadmill inside at the gym. The runner's temperature on Sunday afternoon when I was ready to conquer the 231 hill was in the middle to upper 90s so I took my workout inside. It was tougher than running outside, but well worth it.

Now you are not totally covered just yet in being weatherwise today. When you combine this heat and humidity with a cold front this time of year it can get even more interesting. Your typical late day storms will have a little more lift thanks to the cold front and you can get some pretty vicious wind gusts in a hurry. Today the Storm Prediction Center has us in a slight risk for severe weather. You can see our area outlined in yellow above. Last night there were several reports of 60 to 70 mph wind gusts in Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. This same set-up is in place here at home today and tonight. Even though we have light lower level and upper level winds you can still get some severe weather because some of these thunderstorms can build up to over 10 miles high in the sky. Here is a picture below for you to visualize this.

For every updraft that builds into a thunderstorm in as little as 20 minutes, you have a downdraft that develops when raindrops become heavy enough to fall to the ground. This downdraft can pick up quite a bit of momentum when it starts several miles high in the sky. Some cloud tops grow to well over 50,000 feet or more than 10 miles high in the sky. What a drop! Imagine what happens when a thunderstorm collapses. You can get what is called a microburst or straightline winds that can cause damage in a hurry. So today we will keep our guard up for not only lightning and heavy rain like we saw on Monday morning but some possible damaging wind gusts with those towering cumulonimbus clouds.

I will check back with you during the day as things get more interesting. For now though our weather blog song of the day none other than....I will let you guess before you click on it below. Bermuda high....Baha.....

Coolest July 4th in 11 Years Gives Way to A Steambath & Deluge!

We had one of our nicest July 4th weekends in several years. It is known as one of our stormiest holidays of the entire year when manmade fireworks are usually outdone by nature's fireworks. But not this year. A cool, stabilizing air mass arrived from Canada on the 4th helping to push all of the heat and humidity away. Now interestingly enough we did have a few light sprinkles reported just south of Frankfort just after 9 p.m. but they quickly dissipated. Nature ALWAYS makes things interesting. One interesting note is that we had our coolest July 4th since 1997 with a high temperature of only 76 degrees. If you thought that was impressive, northern Quebec had its first July snowflakes in more than ten years.

As we discussed on the blog on Friday, it takes a lot of things to go just right to keep thunderstorms away on the 4th here in the Lafayette viewing area and in this case if it was snow in Quebec that helped give the cooler air mass a little more push southward so be it! Everything is related in the world of weather that is for sure. I know I had a great weekend with my family. One of the many highlights included bowling. My daughters absolutely loved bowling. They take after their Mom and Dad. The very first date I went on with Julie was at the bowling alley so it is in their blood. We bowled and bowled and bowled, count them 6 games. The great part is that you are guaranteed a few strikes when you bowl that much. Even Lauren, our 3 year old had a strike. I didn't get a turkey, but came close a couple times. The great part was just spending good time together.

Now this morning nature had a few of its on strikes. Lightning strikes that is. We didn't have any weather warnings but did have some very impressive rainfall totals. Delphi averages 4 inches of rain the entire month of July. But Wendy had over 3 inches of rain or about 3 weeks worth of rain in about 3 hours. Kandy in Chalmers wasn't far behind with about 2.4 inches. The gully washer also hit Mary Anne in Remington with 2.3 inches. The farther south and east you went the less rain. Notice here at WLFI in West Lafayette we had .85". Here are more totals for you below.

Unfortunately some areas like Monon and Kokomo had less than .20" of an inch. In fact Gene and Charlotte Austin in Monon were out watering their plants again today. They were also missed with last week's rain. This is certainly the time of year where some areas could have flooding while other areas need to water their plants and this was a good example.

We have no major fronts or storm systems this time of year as our jet stream lifts to the north and what happens is we have thunderstorms that pop up due to heat and humidity. These convective storms sometimes are less than a couple miles in diameter playing havoc with rainfall forecasts.

Last night we actually had a complex of thunderstorms form. The problem this time of year is that even if you get a big area of several thunderstorms they tend to die out toward morning as you lose the heating and areas that are farther downstream miss out on the rain. In this case it would be Kokomo and area farther north near Monon. But I do think all of us will have a good chance of seeing more heavy rain and maybe even some stronger storms. Make sure to tune in to find out why and I will keep you updated as always here on the blog.

It's Party Time! No Lightning Expected and Rain Threat Continues to Diminish

It now looks like the most danger out there today will not be any lightning on Live Doppler 18 for the rest of today and tonight, but grocery store parking lots. I just got a cell phone call from Julie and she is still looking for a place to park!

Now here is your special holiday update...the latest short range model runs do have some sunshine returning this afternoon and this daytime heating could pop an isolated rain shower between 6 p.m. and 8 p.m. The areas that may see a lone rain shower will be Fountain, Montgomery, and Clinton Counties. I do not expect these showers to build into thunderstorms and even the counties I listed above should be mainly rain-free. Areas to the north including Tippecanoe County are looking great as well. There is only a 10% chance of a rain shower! By late tonight an area of high pressure will build in and take over our holiday weekend forecast with our next chance of any pop up storms holding off until Monday.

I will be in the office tonight to track anything nature tries to throw at us. After all it has rained 9 of the past 11 4th of Julys. But remember anything I do track I expect to be brief at best and minor. You will likely see me grilling outside on the weather deck. So with all this good news my wife has this great 4th of July jello recipe to share with you. She credits Tammy Blackburn for sending it her way. Got a pen ready!

White Cake Mix
"Cool it"
"Poke it with the back of a wooden spoon"
2 packages of jello (strawberry and blueberry)
1 cup of boiling water
1 cup of cold water
Mix 1/2 cup of boling water and cold water with each package of jello
Pour in poked holes
Top with cool whip
Put strawberries and blueberries on top

Now your weather blog song of the day is really a patriotic song in honor of Independence Day! You've guessed it. Born in the USA by Bruce Springsteen. You cannot go wrong with the Boss! Happy 4th!

Happy 4th of July! Our "Staycations" Look Mainly Rain-Free

Contrail clouds over Lafayettte as nature paints the sky with some red, white, and blue!

Happy Birthday America! The big day is here and it is also a big day for all meteorologists. It is like our Super Bowl. Sometimes it feels like you are calling the "Hail Mary" play when you forecast a mainly dry 4th of July weekend. That is because it is one of the toughest times of the year to forecast. You think my three daughters give me gray hairs. Try forecasting in Indiana during the big 4th of July weekend forecast. It is a good thing I love challenges. This year is an even bigger challenge because most folks are staying close to home with the high energy prices. How do you think I run marathons? Nature toughens me up that is for sure and through lots of preparation and I will keep a close eye on Live Doppler 18 and all the new model runs throughout the weekend. So why is it anything but a holiday for meteorologists?

There are many reasons. Here are the top two. It is the time of year when we have cold fronts that stall out over the Midwest. This happens because those cool pushes of air from Canada are usually not strong enough to push the warm and humid air too far south. The sun angle is too strong and it helps to build these stagnant tropical domes of air. To move these hot domes totally out of our weather picture is like trying to push a bowling ball with a feather. Be skeptical and worried about all cold fronts trying to pass through our area this time of year. We all remember the 10 inches plus of rain that hit our area during the 4th of July holiday back in 2003! The second big challenge is that we have pop up thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening with all of the heating taking place. These thunderstorms are sometimes less than 2 miles wide in diameter but if they are in the wrong place at the wrong time your nice fireworks forecast can become a forecast farce in a hurry.

At least Justin New sent in a picture of nature getting this big weekend off on the right foot. It is a good sign for us. I do think we will see more contrail clouds from planes than nature's nimbostratus or cumulonimbus clouds that bring gushes of rain this time of year. I think our best chance of rain over the weekend will be this morning and once again by late Monday as more heat and humidity build into the region. I will be brave and call for good fireworks weather tonight at 10 p.m. throughout the entire area. It will be comfortable with temperatures in the middle to upper 60s and only a slight chance of a shower.

The news gets even better! I see brilliant sunsets and sunrises this weekend due to our upper atmospheric flow coming from the northwest and pushing smoke particles our way. As the sunlight passes through a thicker layer of the atmosphere near the horizon it scatters out the longer wavelengths of orange and red. Nature's beautiful display can turn dazzling if you have particles like smoke, dust, or ash in the atmosphere which are bigger than the air molecules. This will cause the sunlight to be scattered even more and it turns the red colors into crimsons and orange colors into a fiery sky. You will be amazed at how much smoke is in the atmosphere. I shaded a lot of gray on the national map to depict this. The raging fires out West are bad, but the worst of the fires believe it or not are up in Canada and this upper-level smoke is expected to move our way.

Now this upper-level smoke should not spoil our "staycations" which is the term we are giving to all those that have canceled their plans to travel long distances this year and stay closer to home due to those high gas prices. Looking for ideas? Well, yesterday I had the pleasure to meet The Atiso family who were our wlfi.com contest winners. We rewarded them with plenty of great food catered by DNR and Parretts, greased watermelon races, and even carriage rides out at Historic Prophetstown. I took a snap shot of the carriage ride. Those Belgian horses are certainly beautiful.

The Threshing Show will be going on out at Prophetstown this weekend with plenty of great things for the kids to do including camping.

Today make sure to tune in for the latest. Brian has you covered this morning and I will be babysitting Live Doppler 18 this evening. I leave with a picture of Tropical Storm Bertha. This is the big dog storm that will probably just maintain its intensity close to 45 mph winds over the next few days. But we will have to watch it closely by later next week and weekend as some maps have it curving toward the Carolinas. This is a definite sign of a busy season. I will have more on this here on the blog in the future. With parents in Jacksonville, Florida you better believe I will. Have a safe and wonderful weekend.

Dodging the Worst of the Storms & Getting Ready for Brilliant Sunsets

Hey Mike, I took these pictures earlier this evening, I have NO idea of how much rain we got because the wind blew my rain gauge off of its platform. These pics show the rain coming, it was awesome.

Have a Good evening and a Happy and safe 4th....

Dena Flanagan (Newcastle & Wyandotte Rd)

Here comes the clouds and there goes the sun

It is always good to hear from Dena. She always captures the weather mood of Lafayette. You can see the impressive rain shafts in the second picture. It was one of those days on Wednesday when some folks got no rain and others had a quick inch of rain near Logansport. We all missed out on seeing the worst of what nature had to offer. Notice the storm reports were mainly north of us. The two reports you see in our viewing area were just east of Bennettsville with quarter size hail and wind gusts near 60 mph.

The timing was on our side after all. It did not arrive until the wee hours of the morning so it lost of a lot of its punch. The front also ran into some drier air as it moved our way last night so that kept us from seeing any additional severe weather. This dry air was likely mixed down out ahead of the main cold front. We did have plenty of really amazing lightning around the area last night. Now the the big 4th of July weekend is almost here and the only light show folks want to see is a fireworks show. Now across our entire country there is only one big front on the map and guess where it is located. Of course it is here in Indiana. The question is where will it stall out. Drum roll please.....okay here is the answer!


Thanks to high pressure building in to our north the front should stall close to northern Kentucky and not by the Tippecanoe County Courthouse! This front will be the focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms over our holiday weekend. Here in Lafayette we will have a nice dry north to northeast flow and while we may have a good deal of clouds around on Friday, I think any rain chances should remain small! Here is the weather for Friday night at 10:00 p.m. You may even need a sweatshirt for the fireworks.


These are the kind of fireworks we all hoped for. Right now it looks like temperatures will be in the middle to upper 60s with a mix of clouds and starts. A cool northeast wind will be near 10 mph. It simply does not get any better. Just in case those clouds try to pop a rain shower or thundershower I will be at work Friday evening babysitting Live Doppler 18 just in case. It never fails to have a lone shower or thunderstorm pop up and I remember one year we had this strange funnel form in the sky even though it was sunny outside. I still have that picture in my weather room to prove it. So there are never any guarantees, but this year it is looking pretty good! Now we all know nature does not like to be outdone this time of year. Check out this display in the sky that has been repeated for the past week!

You have heard of a blue moon right? Well how about this lavendar sunshine. This is caused by smoke particles. This picture was taken in Arcata, California by Mike Kelly. These same smoke particles may also do something special to our sunrises and sunsets over the holiday weekend. I will be back to tell you all about. In the meantime, have a great day! Great job once again blogging last night.

Dry Air Pocket in Illinois will Keep Thunderstorms from Going Severe

None of the models showed it! We have a dry pocket that has formed in Illinois. It may be from thunderstorms to the north that helped mix down some drier air from earlier in the day. This will help stabilize the main line of thunderstorms expected to move our way after midnight. This should keep us from seeing a severe thunderstorm watch box issued. I still think it is doubtful we will see much in the way of severe weather. We not only have timing issues, but a lot of dry air for our storms to overcome. Thirdly, a complex of thunderstorms out in Missouri is sagging to the south and east of us and will also tend to zap some energy from the storms moving our way from the North. So all in all it is nice to be missing out on severe weather for once.

Although, not totally! We had an isolated report of quarter size hail and an isolated damaging wind report just east of Burnettsville. We had a low-level jet stream that collided with our warm and muggy air mass. This was enough to build a couple isolated thunderstorms even though the main front was hundreds of miles away. Tonight this same low-level jet stream or higher wind speed concentrated near the ground will collide with a cold front moving our way so we will keep thunderstorms in the forecast. But this time around it will be the kind of thunderstorms you can probably sleep to. Well, unless your a parent. I will probably have a bed full of kids and pets. It is a good thing I will be watching Live Doppler 18 until late tonight. Have a great night and I will check back with you soon!

Thunderstorms With Gusty Winds & Large Hail Moving Our Way

Latest Live Doppler 18 image continues to show more thunderstorms popping in Illinois.


A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS STILL IN EFFECT FOR CASS COUNTY UNTIL 7:45 P.M. A THUNDERSTORM MOVING OVER LOGANSPORT STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING DEADLY LIGHTNING, ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH, AND LARGE HAIL. A NEW WARNING MAY BE ISSUED FOR MIAMI COUNTY SHORTLY. STRONG STORMS ARE ALSO FORMING IN ILLINOIS AND MOVING INTO WARREN AND FOUNTAIN COUNTIES. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO TIPPECANOE COUNTY AFTER 8:30 P.M. WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN THREATS.