Alligators not growling yet but tropics are making plenty of noise

Saturday, August 20, 2011
It was another fun start to our weekend on Good Morning Jacksonville! Now that is my scared smile you see there because for the first time ever I held a live alligator. The good news was he was only 2 months old. What I learned is they are strong and that their tails are powerful. I was tail-whipped a couple times. The nice folks from the Jacksonville Zoo came in this morning and I talked about Gators and weather. In one of my bazillion almanacs at home I read that gators growl before the approach of a hurricane. The experts gave this fact a thumbs up because gators can sense a change in air pressure which in turn can make them growl. Well this little guy was not growling but the tropics certainly are making a lot of noise! Chief Meteorologist Tim Deegan was talking about us heading into our busiest six weeks of the year and it looks like nature is right on cue.

I would not be surprised if we average at least one to two new named storms per week from now through the end of September. The conditions are ripe with near record warm Atlantic Ocean temperatures and a La Nina pattern which favors busy tropical seasons in the Atlantic basin. So we know about Harvey moving into Belize in Mexico today, but all eyes are on the tropics for Irene and yes Jose to form this week and at least one of those two will pose a threat to the United States. You can see why. We are in the cone of concern! I think Irene will be named before Jose and that is the one to watch. Jose which is just coming off the coast of Africa will likely remain out at sea. Now here is the latest on Irene. Let's look at the upper-air patterns to get a good handle.

Here is why we need to watch it closely. There is a lot of high pressure to the north of our developing tropical wave still located in the Central Atlantic. The invisible shield in the form of a deep trough of low pressure off the US East Coast that has been protecting us for a good portion of this season and last year is no longer there to protect us. You can see that clearly.

Also, the key to this storm is this storm is not getting its act together until later rather than sooner so with high pressure to its north it is essentially running out of time to curve out to sea. Here are the latest spaghetti models showing the tropical trouble. We are not quite sure of the intensity of this system or how its interaction with land may impact it but all the models have been consistent throughout the week of showing a formidable storm near South Florida by late week. Here is a good look at that below.

Notice we have a storm located near the Bahamas and Cuba by Thursday. It looks like it will be steered north-northeast around a high pressure in the western Atlantic and and a trough of low pressure to the north. This will turn the upper wind flow to the south-southwest and it would likely cause what could be Irene to impact Florida and possibly have a secondary landfall in the Carolinas. We do have to keep this in perspective though. This storm has yet to even form and we have a long way to go. But right now this system could pose the biggest threat we have seen to the United States since Ike in 2008 and the East Coast since Jeanne in 2004! It has been 2,520 days since we have had a hurricane strike Florida. This is too good to be true. This has been one of the quietest stretches in US history without a hurricane and unfortunately this streak of good luck seems to be running out. No matter where this storm ends up is a good wake-up call to double-check your disaster supply kit.

Last but not least a big thank you to Dodie Cantrell-Bickley our general manager who took this shot of the storm that rolled through the World Golf Village on this Saturday afternoon. Yes! It really is a team effort here at First Coast News. Thanks for the great shot Dodie! She did say the raindrops were unusually large and that is telling me there are a lot of ice crystals in the clouds which stuck together before melting. This tends to really electrify these storms. So while I am only calling for 20% coverage of storms today make sure you remember your lightning safety rules and be careful on the roads in those brief heavy downpours. I still think most of us miss out on the rain and by late day the majority of the shower and storm activity will be focused along Interstate 75. Have a wonderful weekend. Now back to burning the mid-day oil. It is way too busy to go home! I look forward to seeing you tonight at 6, 6:30 and 11!

Full Red Moon in the morning, Sailors take warning!

Sunday, August 14, 2011

The full red moon as the Native Americans called it is living up to its name. The full moon in the month of August was called the red moon because the sultry haze this time of year tends to give it a reddish hue especially near the horizon as the moonlight is forced to travel through our pea thick atmosphere. In fact the moon not only looked red last night as it rose but it had a nice rosy color this morning before it set. Our weather intern extraordinaire Athena Masson captured this nice shot of the colorful rising moon last night just about over Everbank Field.

What is the red moon telling us for today's weather? Well, I had fun with the forecast and switched around the old weather proverb that says Red sky in the morning, Sailor's take warning. Red sky at night Sailor's delight. I had to since this saying usually only works in areas north of 35 degrees latitude. The red sky at night is caused by the sun shining on clouds to the east usually indicating a frontal passage and better weather ahead. Red sky in the morning is caused by the sun rising in the east and shining on clouds that could indicate an approaching storm or front on the way.

Here in the sub-tropics, a full red moon this time of year usually means it is hazy and humid. This humidity helps fuel thunderstorms this time of year. Another couple ingredients coming together is we have a strong southern cold front to work with along with plenty of instability. Notice I outlooked our area in a high wind risk where you see the yellow shading. This means I do expect at least a couple storms to produce wind gusts of 58 mph or higher which would prompt a severe thunderstorm warning. These warnings could include mariners or sailors since I expect these storms to reach the beach and even head offshore with a stronger west wind today taking hold of the area.

The red shaded areas is where more widespread severe weather will occur which is closer to the actual cold front that helped end the heat wave over much of the country. This would be primarily from McIntosh and Pierce Counties northward. We will keep our eyes to the sky and look west today. That is where the storms are moving from and like yesterday we could see a few trees down like we saw in Marion and Flagler Counties where gusts were near 60 mph. We will also be on the outlook for flooding rain and frequent lightning.

Jacksonville International Airport had an incredible 2.23 inches of rain yesterday! This brings the year total up to 32.79 inches which is about 2 inches above normal and is about 12" more than we received by this time last year. This is great  news. We are still in a drought but heading in the right direction! We only receive more than 2 inches of rain in 24 hours only about a couple times a year on average. Last year we only accomplished this once right before we went rainless in October!

So it has been like a once in a blue moon type of thing! Speaking of which....another moon fact...which was answered on the 11 p.m. news segment called the PRANG FACT of the night. Our next blue moon will be in August, 2012. A blue moon in this case is not defined by its color but by being the second full moon in the same month. This only happens about once every two and a half years. You could make the case our moon had a bluish tinge to it during our busy fire season but I think I like the traditional definition much more.

Last but not least the tropics are firing on all cylinders now but the good news is the main track is around a huge area of high pressure which is directing these named storms out to sea. Franklin is no more but look for Gert to form today and it could brush Bermuda with tropical storm force winds by tonight. It will quickly weaken and head out to see. Now we may not be so lucky with Harvey and Irene that form this week. We will keep a closer eye on those two that could have a track farther south and west. This is a reminder that we are heading into the heart of hurricane season and we need to stay prepared. Today is the anniversary of Hurricane Charley that slammed  Florida with 150 mph sustained winds. This was actually the second land-falling tropical cyclone that hit Florida in the same 24 hour period which had never been done before. Tropical Storm Bonnie made landfall in St. Vincent Island, Florida just 22 hours prior

 
You see the incredible picture of Charley that was actually a small hurricane but very powerful. It hit southwest Florida but still caused plenty of damage on the East Coast of Florida including 80% of Volusia County being without power. Flagler County had hundreds of homes damaged by 60-65 mph sustained winds with gusts to 77 mph. Pretty amazing and it goes to show you the power of nature. Tonight we will take a closer look at Charley's track and maybe even find some cool file video. Also, we will be tracking several systems in the tropics. See you soon! Have a great day!

Stormy to Sulty! Our hottest weather of the year on the way except for the ocean!

Tuesday, August 9, 2011

For the remainder of our Tuesday afternoon and early evening, showers and thunderstorms continue across the area. There could be a severe thunderstorm or two with damaging wind gusts especially for areas north of Interstate 10 and southeast Georgia where there is more instability and upper support.

Wednesday we start to transition into the hottest weather of the year as high pressure takes over in the atmosphere. Any storms will be few and far between mainly from St. Augustine southward. Highs will be well into the 90s. On Thursday and Friday many areas could hit 100 degrees in the shade and this does not include the humidity.

The tropics are quiet. But it will have to be watched closely as another named storm will be likely in the next 7 to 10 days.


Usually the beach is the place to go this time of year but not this week. We have a west wind taking over the pattern due to strong high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico. This means it will even be scorching on the sand with highs well into the 90s to near 100! The good news is this high pressure will weaken by the weekend with nice sea breezes returning, but until then make sure to slow it down and drink plenty of water. Surf will remain at a foot or less through at least Friday.


Our water temperatures are now in the upper 70s at the beach, but we could have some upwelling helping to decrease ocean temperatures. So swimming in the ocean would definitely provide some relief! Enjoy.

More heat and lightning than rain increases wildfire threat

Air mass storms continue to fire up in all the heat and humidity and they should taper off in most of Florida by 8 p.m. But if you are in Georgia there is a weak ripple moving through nature's attic that could keep the scattered storms going through 10 p.m. One last round of thundershowers may move through Florida around midnight.




The main threats will be lightning and heavy downpours. Drought conditions continue and the wildfire threat will remain higher than normal throughout the week. We still need 10 to 15 inches of rain to totally rid ourselves of drought conditions and with more scorching heat and lightning than rain we could have a few new fires pop up like we saw on Sunday.



The tropics are quiet. But it will have to be watched closely as another named storm will be likely in the next 7 to 10 days. The Atlantic ocean temperatures have near record warm temperatures and wind shear will start to relax in the next 10 days.

Emily back on CPR! The heat wave and the never-ending drought remain our big concerns!

Sunday, August 7, 2011

The big meteorological I am having with some colleagues is why Emily was once again resuscitated by the National Hurricane Center and called a depression once again. Yes, the hurricane hunters flew into it yesterday but even if it had some wind gusts near 35 mph there really was no threat to humans to begin with due to a front and shear to its north. We knew it was going out to sea and we should have let Emily rest in peace. But it is what it is.

Emily is officially a tropical depression this morning and you can see what was left of it. It became more organized after moving over water temperatures in the Bahamas near 88 degrees (deep red ocean colors) the last couple of days. At the same time wind shear relaxed just long enough for it to produce sustained winds of 35 mph. But that only lasted about 8 hours and by late last night it was obvious it was being sheared apart again and that drier air to its north along with wind shear would cause it to weaken once again before heading out to sea. So I think once and for all we can let Emily rest in peace. This will not be the never-ending storm like we saw in 1899 that spun around in the Atlantic for nearly 28 days! This record for the longest lived tropical cyclone at least in the Atlantic basin still stands today! The bigger story is what is steering this fragmented, shredded depression away from Jacksonville.

You've guessed it! It is our heat wave. Check this out! The high pressure ridge to our east with a clock-wise circulation along with a trough to the North is guiding Emily out to sea! This is the same high pressure that is bringing Jacksonville its hottest weather of the year this week. Over the next six days I do not see much change in this pattern so unfortunately the heat goes on and highs will remain well into the 90s and it will feel well over 100 each day. The longer the heat wave goes on the more of a toll it takes on your body. Heat has a cumulative effect so make sure to pay even more attention to the young, elderly, and yes the pets.

Today can be considered the tenth straight day of this heat wave. The Florida definition of a heat wave would be highs of 90 or above with officially above average temperatures. We have had 20 straight days of 90 or above. Now I do not expect us to reach 50 like last year but do expect this scorching pattern to hold through a good portion of August. Notice the latest CPC maps showing the hot stuff over us here at home!

This hot pattern is not just uncomfortable but bad news for our drought. I do think we will see more heat than rain over the next couple of weeks as well which could once again stoke a few wildfires. Officially we are still in a moderate drought in St. Johns County to an extreme drought from the Georgia-Florida border northward. For the year we are actually about .50" of rain above normal at Jacksonville.

But my favorite saying is nobody lives at the airport! I have estimated that many areas on the First Coast from the river east are still running a deficit for the year of at least 2 to 4 inches and maybe more. Don in Switzerland, Florida who has kept tabs on rain since the early 70s thinks this rainfall pattern really went haywire back in 1997 and we really have not recovered from that drought. He may have a point. Time will tell. We have certainly been in a more extreme weather pattern not only in Florida but all across the globe with increased droughts and wild temperature swings. I think folks in Camden County may agree with this assessment along with areas just north of Interstate 10 in Florida into extreme south Georgia where they had a rain deficit of at least 3 inches this year as well on top of last year's devastating rain deficit.

Jacksonville International has officially received over 30" of rain. But the soil moisture has not recovered from last year's monster 18" deficit. This explains why many folks tell me they are wishing for a tropical storm and they do have a point. We do need one to help us really get out of this drought. Of course tropical systems rarely behave and it is tough catch up on rain without having to pay for it in another way with either wind damage and flooding, even if we have been so dry! It is a tropical catch-22! So let it rain, let it rain, let it rain. When it is this hot most of the rain we do receive is evaporated quickly. The good news is that more of a normal precipitation pattern for us is expected this coming winter. Hopefully we can really start to effectively re-charge the soil moisture by then.

Speaking of rain you can see only 30% the lucky ones will see it today! But we do have one change and that is the storm tracks will be from the west instead of the east due to a stronger Gulf Coast sea breeze. So if you are at the beaches you could even see an isolated storm or two primarily after 4 p.m. but at this time I think the heat index of 105-115 will have much more of an impact on you. The biggest threats today will once again be heavy rain and lightning with slow-moving storms. The pattern may bring us an increase in storms briefly on Tuesday otherwise do not count on the rain for your plants.

The tropics do remain active with tropical waves lined up all the way to Africa, but I do think our big surge in named storms will hold off until after August 15th. Things will get very interesting after August 20th with a  pattern would support multiple named storms. Stay tuned and as things get busier you will be able to count on this blog! For now it is off to church I go to see the family and the One that really has all the answers! God bless! Have a wonderful Sunday. Tonight at 6, 6:30 and 11 I will have more on this heat wave and why the average number of 90 degree days in Jacksonville went way up! Yes, it is tougher to get over the proverbial summer hump and it is made worse when you are in a heat wave!

Beat the heat by helping to Stuff the Bus! The heat wave is here to stay

Saturday, August 6, 2011

BE A HERO –HELP GIVE KIDS THE TOOLS THEY NEED –HELP US “STUFF THE BUS”

• Hero Central Stuff the Bus is our drive to collect school supplies for needy kids – in partnership with Publix, Community First Credit Union, The Salvation Army and United Way of NE Florida.

• Why should you donate? In these tough times, the need is greater than ever. Thousands of kids start the school year off each year without the tools they need. Last year the Salvation Army served over 2,000 kids…and this year we expect to serve many more.

• What should you donate? Anything you would purchase for your own child: pencils, pens, crayons, markers, highlighters, erasers, loose-leaf paper, spiral notebooks, folders, 3-ring binders, calculators, rulers, compasses, backpacks, lunch boxes, dividers, pencil boxes, tissues, hand sanitizer, plastic zip lock bags, glue sticks, index cards, graph paper, etc.

There is a special need for backpacks, highlighters, scientific calculators index cards, 3-ring binders.

• Would like to help, but you are pressed for time? Publix shoppers can purchase a “pre-stuffed bag available at all Publix locations – there are different priced bags to choose from.

• Where can you donate? Donation bins are at all area Publix Super Markets and Community First Credit Union locations. You can drop off your school supplies donations any time during normal business hours through this weekend.

I could not think of a better way to beat the heat! You can shop in the air conditioning and help those in need. You have until 10 p.m. tonight so hurry up! I wanted to thank everybody for all their contributions and this morning on Good Morning Jacksonville it was great seeing hundreds of folks show up to help make a difference. It goes to show you how giving of a community we live in!

I wish we could thank nature for showing some mercy with this heat but there is no end in sight! Heat indices continue to rocket upward. Here is a picture from a car thermometer from Doug Lockwood. Now usually I would say that this is much warmer than how it really feels outside because the thermometer is not six feet high and in a sheltered, grassy location facing northwest. Well this thermometer is too cold!!! Yes! We have Waycross now with a heat index of 115 at noon and it feels like 111 in Keystone Heights. This is dangerous heat and another reason we will not treat this just like any other typical hot day in Florida. Keep in mind if you take a temperature reading in the sun and combine the temperature and humidity it will feel even warmer.

Now the highest heat index of the year in Jacksonville is 108 set yesterday and today I think we will could hit 110! This is the same heat wave that has caused hundreds of deaths across the country this summer. We have been very lucky up to this point so make sure to be careful out there. An inner tube in the pool or ocean is the place to be.

Any cooling storms should pop mainly west of I-95, and slowly drift erratically. The main threats should be heavy rain like we saw yesterday with 2 to 3 inches east of Ratliff, lightning, and wind gusts near 50 mph. But it is so warm at all levels of the atmosphere many of us will miss out on the rain. This high pressure bringing us the heat wave will keep a pretty good cap on the atmosphere through at least Monday. Tuesday and Wednesday I think will be better days when most of us can count on the rain. As far as the heat wave goes thte new is not so good and it looks like it will be with us for much of the next week with highs in the middle to upper 90s!

Speaking of the ocean how about this great picture sent in by Kathryn from Jacksonville. She is not sure who the little boy is but this picture is priceless! We have had surf reports of 2-3 feet so far this Saturday and we need to enjoy it before a west wind moves in on Sunday taking most of our surf down from 1 to 2 feet. A wave period will also fall to about 7 seconds. So have fun and be safe! I do think the beaches will miss out on our widely scattered storms to day but tomorrow there could be a storm or two that reaches the beach.

Emily was a wake-up call for all of us this week and even though it is quiet in the tropics again we need to keep our guard up! The latest NOAA forecast has increased the number of named storms from 12-18 to 14-19. Our average per season in the Atlantic basin is close to 11. The reason is even though the La Nina has become almost neutral or what is called a La Nada the atmosphere and ocean will still feel the effects of the La Nina for at least the next couple of months through the peak of the hurricane season. Already I am worried about the African Wave Train coming to life. Check out the impressive convection and thunderstorm activity coming off Africa!

This is the area to watch with Franklin possibly developing by next weekend in the open Atlantic. There is impressive convection and thunderstorm activity coming off the coast of Africa and building high pressure along with low shear. This is not a good combination and it is a La Nina signature which supports the updated NOAA forecast. I still think we have a quiet week but watch out in the 7-10 day period. Once the tropics come to life again they will likely stay active for the duration of the season with at least one named storm to track per week. Prepare now and if you missed our hurricane special you have another opportunity to watch it tonight on ABC.

Remember to stuff the bus to stay cool and celebrate National Root Beer Float Day. Today would be a great day for a scoop of vanilla ice creamy and a frothy refreshing drink! A heat advisory continues all the way through 9 p.m. so you can pick up the root beer and ice cream after donating the supplies. That way everybody wins and stays cool! Take care and thanks for reading!

Dangerous heat wave hits Jacksonville

Saturday, August 6, 2011

Heat advisory in effect until 9 p.m. for the entire viewing area. Dangerous heat and humidity will continue today with highs in the middle 90s beaches to near 100 inland. Heat indices will range from 110 to 120 which will make it feel like the hottest day of the year. A front that was trying to bring us relief is stalling well to our north as you can see! The two headed high pressure monster with big claws and teeth will dominate our weather.


This is the same heat wave that has caused dozens of deaths across the country. Make sure to slow it down and take the heat seriously. Limit outdoor exposure and make sure to find a cool spot for your pets. Only 30% of us will see a cooling shower or storm by mid to late afternoon.

Emily is no more in the tropics but we are still feeling the effects in the form of 2 to 2.5 foot surf on our Saturday. Thank you Linda for sending in this great picture of Franklyn surfing at Neptune Beach yesterday! The good news is Emily weakened so rapidly strong run outs are no longer expected! So we will have plenty of more good swimming and surfing today. Make sure to get out and surf while you can because by Sunday afternoon it will fall to only 1.5 feet. If you are boating seas should remain between 2 to 4 feet with only a light inland chop.

I will be back with much more including an update on the tropics. Now back to Good Morning Jacksonville! Have a wonderful day!