Stormy to Sulty! Our hottest weather of the year on the way except for the ocean!

Tuesday, August 9, 2011

For the remainder of our Tuesday afternoon and early evening, showers and thunderstorms continue across the area. There could be a severe thunderstorm or two with damaging wind gusts especially for areas north of Interstate 10 and southeast Georgia where there is more instability and upper support.

Wednesday we start to transition into the hottest weather of the year as high pressure takes over in the atmosphere. Any storms will be few and far between mainly from St. Augustine southward. Highs will be well into the 90s. On Thursday and Friday many areas could hit 100 degrees in the shade and this does not include the humidity.

The tropics are quiet. But it will have to be watched closely as another named storm will be likely in the next 7 to 10 days.


Usually the beach is the place to go this time of year but not this week. We have a west wind taking over the pattern due to strong high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico. This means it will even be scorching on the sand with highs well into the 90s to near 100! The good news is this high pressure will weaken by the weekend with nice sea breezes returning, but until then make sure to slow it down and drink plenty of water. Surf will remain at a foot or less through at least Friday.


Our water temperatures are now in the upper 70s at the beach, but we could have some upwelling helping to decrease ocean temperatures. So swimming in the ocean would definitely provide some relief! Enjoy.

More heat and lightning than rain increases wildfire threat

Air mass storms continue to fire up in all the heat and humidity and they should taper off in most of Florida by 8 p.m. But if you are in Georgia there is a weak ripple moving through nature's attic that could keep the scattered storms going through 10 p.m. One last round of thundershowers may move through Florida around midnight.




The main threats will be lightning and heavy downpours. Drought conditions continue and the wildfire threat will remain higher than normal throughout the week. We still need 10 to 15 inches of rain to totally rid ourselves of drought conditions and with more scorching heat and lightning than rain we could have a few new fires pop up like we saw on Sunday.



The tropics are quiet. But it will have to be watched closely as another named storm will be likely in the next 7 to 10 days. The Atlantic ocean temperatures have near record warm temperatures and wind shear will start to relax in the next 10 days.

Emily back on CPR! The heat wave and the never-ending drought remain our big concerns!

Sunday, August 7, 2011

The big meteorological I am having with some colleagues is why Emily was once again resuscitated by the National Hurricane Center and called a depression once again. Yes, the hurricane hunters flew into it yesterday but even if it had some wind gusts near 35 mph there really was no threat to humans to begin with due to a front and shear to its north. We knew it was going out to sea and we should have let Emily rest in peace. But it is what it is.

Emily is officially a tropical depression this morning and you can see what was left of it. It became more organized after moving over water temperatures in the Bahamas near 88 degrees (deep red ocean colors) the last couple of days. At the same time wind shear relaxed just long enough for it to produce sustained winds of 35 mph. But that only lasted about 8 hours and by late last night it was obvious it was being sheared apart again and that drier air to its north along with wind shear would cause it to weaken once again before heading out to sea. So I think once and for all we can let Emily rest in peace. This will not be the never-ending storm like we saw in 1899 that spun around in the Atlantic for nearly 28 days! This record for the longest lived tropical cyclone at least in the Atlantic basin still stands today! The bigger story is what is steering this fragmented, shredded depression away from Jacksonville.

You've guessed it! It is our heat wave. Check this out! The high pressure ridge to our east with a clock-wise circulation along with a trough to the North is guiding Emily out to sea! This is the same high pressure that is bringing Jacksonville its hottest weather of the year this week. Over the next six days I do not see much change in this pattern so unfortunately the heat goes on and highs will remain well into the 90s and it will feel well over 100 each day. The longer the heat wave goes on the more of a toll it takes on your body. Heat has a cumulative effect so make sure to pay even more attention to the young, elderly, and yes the pets.

Today can be considered the tenth straight day of this heat wave. The Florida definition of a heat wave would be highs of 90 or above with officially above average temperatures. We have had 20 straight days of 90 or above. Now I do not expect us to reach 50 like last year but do expect this scorching pattern to hold through a good portion of August. Notice the latest CPC maps showing the hot stuff over us here at home!

This hot pattern is not just uncomfortable but bad news for our drought. I do think we will see more heat than rain over the next couple of weeks as well which could once again stoke a few wildfires. Officially we are still in a moderate drought in St. Johns County to an extreme drought from the Georgia-Florida border northward. For the year we are actually about .50" of rain above normal at Jacksonville.

But my favorite saying is nobody lives at the airport! I have estimated that many areas on the First Coast from the river east are still running a deficit for the year of at least 2 to 4 inches and maybe more. Don in Switzerland, Florida who has kept tabs on rain since the early 70s thinks this rainfall pattern really went haywire back in 1997 and we really have not recovered from that drought. He may have a point. Time will tell. We have certainly been in a more extreme weather pattern not only in Florida but all across the globe with increased droughts and wild temperature swings. I think folks in Camden County may agree with this assessment along with areas just north of Interstate 10 in Florida into extreme south Georgia where they had a rain deficit of at least 3 inches this year as well on top of last year's devastating rain deficit.

Jacksonville International has officially received over 30" of rain. But the soil moisture has not recovered from last year's monster 18" deficit. This explains why many folks tell me they are wishing for a tropical storm and they do have a point. We do need one to help us really get out of this drought. Of course tropical systems rarely behave and it is tough catch up on rain without having to pay for it in another way with either wind damage and flooding, even if we have been so dry! It is a tropical catch-22! So let it rain, let it rain, let it rain. When it is this hot most of the rain we do receive is evaporated quickly. The good news is that more of a normal precipitation pattern for us is expected this coming winter. Hopefully we can really start to effectively re-charge the soil moisture by then.

Speaking of rain you can see only 30% the lucky ones will see it today! But we do have one change and that is the storm tracks will be from the west instead of the east due to a stronger Gulf Coast sea breeze. So if you are at the beaches you could even see an isolated storm or two primarily after 4 p.m. but at this time I think the heat index of 105-115 will have much more of an impact on you. The biggest threats today will once again be heavy rain and lightning with slow-moving storms. The pattern may bring us an increase in storms briefly on Tuesday otherwise do not count on the rain for your plants.

The tropics do remain active with tropical waves lined up all the way to Africa, but I do think our big surge in named storms will hold off until after August 15th. Things will get very interesting after August 20th with a  pattern would support multiple named storms. Stay tuned and as things get busier you will be able to count on this blog! For now it is off to church I go to see the family and the One that really has all the answers! God bless! Have a wonderful Sunday. Tonight at 6, 6:30 and 11 I will have more on this heat wave and why the average number of 90 degree days in Jacksonville went way up! Yes, it is tougher to get over the proverbial summer hump and it is made worse when you are in a heat wave!

Beat the heat by helping to Stuff the Bus! The heat wave is here to stay

Saturday, August 6, 2011

BE A HERO –HELP GIVE KIDS THE TOOLS THEY NEED –HELP US “STUFF THE BUS”

• Hero Central Stuff the Bus is our drive to collect school supplies for needy kids – in partnership with Publix, Community First Credit Union, The Salvation Army and United Way of NE Florida.

• Why should you donate? In these tough times, the need is greater than ever. Thousands of kids start the school year off each year without the tools they need. Last year the Salvation Army served over 2,000 kids…and this year we expect to serve many more.

• What should you donate? Anything you would purchase for your own child: pencils, pens, crayons, markers, highlighters, erasers, loose-leaf paper, spiral notebooks, folders, 3-ring binders, calculators, rulers, compasses, backpacks, lunch boxes, dividers, pencil boxes, tissues, hand sanitizer, plastic zip lock bags, glue sticks, index cards, graph paper, etc.

There is a special need for backpacks, highlighters, scientific calculators index cards, 3-ring binders.

• Would like to help, but you are pressed for time? Publix shoppers can purchase a “pre-stuffed bag available at all Publix locations – there are different priced bags to choose from.

• Where can you donate? Donation bins are at all area Publix Super Markets and Community First Credit Union locations. You can drop off your school supplies donations any time during normal business hours through this weekend.

I could not think of a better way to beat the heat! You can shop in the air conditioning and help those in need. You have until 10 p.m. tonight so hurry up! I wanted to thank everybody for all their contributions and this morning on Good Morning Jacksonville it was great seeing hundreds of folks show up to help make a difference. It goes to show you how giving of a community we live in!

I wish we could thank nature for showing some mercy with this heat but there is no end in sight! Heat indices continue to rocket upward. Here is a picture from a car thermometer from Doug Lockwood. Now usually I would say that this is much warmer than how it really feels outside because the thermometer is not six feet high and in a sheltered, grassy location facing northwest. Well this thermometer is too cold!!! Yes! We have Waycross now with a heat index of 115 at noon and it feels like 111 in Keystone Heights. This is dangerous heat and another reason we will not treat this just like any other typical hot day in Florida. Keep in mind if you take a temperature reading in the sun and combine the temperature and humidity it will feel even warmer.

Now the highest heat index of the year in Jacksonville is 108 set yesterday and today I think we will could hit 110! This is the same heat wave that has caused hundreds of deaths across the country this summer. We have been very lucky up to this point so make sure to be careful out there. An inner tube in the pool or ocean is the place to be.

Any cooling storms should pop mainly west of I-95, and slowly drift erratically. The main threats should be heavy rain like we saw yesterday with 2 to 3 inches east of Ratliff, lightning, and wind gusts near 50 mph. But it is so warm at all levels of the atmosphere many of us will miss out on the rain. This high pressure bringing us the heat wave will keep a pretty good cap on the atmosphere through at least Monday. Tuesday and Wednesday I think will be better days when most of us can count on the rain. As far as the heat wave goes thte new is not so good and it looks like it will be with us for much of the next week with highs in the middle to upper 90s!

Speaking of the ocean how about this great picture sent in by Kathryn from Jacksonville. She is not sure who the little boy is but this picture is priceless! We have had surf reports of 2-3 feet so far this Saturday and we need to enjoy it before a west wind moves in on Sunday taking most of our surf down from 1 to 2 feet. A wave period will also fall to about 7 seconds. So have fun and be safe! I do think the beaches will miss out on our widely scattered storms to day but tomorrow there could be a storm or two that reaches the beach.

Emily was a wake-up call for all of us this week and even though it is quiet in the tropics again we need to keep our guard up! The latest NOAA forecast has increased the number of named storms from 12-18 to 14-19. Our average per season in the Atlantic basin is close to 11. The reason is even though the La Nina has become almost neutral or what is called a La Nada the atmosphere and ocean will still feel the effects of the La Nina for at least the next couple of months through the peak of the hurricane season. Already I am worried about the African Wave Train coming to life. Check out the impressive convection and thunderstorm activity coming off Africa!

This is the area to watch with Franklin possibly developing by next weekend in the open Atlantic. There is impressive convection and thunderstorm activity coming off the coast of Africa and building high pressure along with low shear. This is not a good combination and it is a La Nina signature which supports the updated NOAA forecast. I still think we have a quiet week but watch out in the 7-10 day period. Once the tropics come to life again they will likely stay active for the duration of the season with at least one named storm to track per week. Prepare now and if you missed our hurricane special you have another opportunity to watch it tonight on ABC.

Remember to stuff the bus to stay cool and celebrate National Root Beer Float Day. Today would be a great day for a scoop of vanilla ice creamy and a frothy refreshing drink! A heat advisory continues all the way through 9 p.m. so you can pick up the root beer and ice cream after donating the supplies. That way everybody wins and stays cool! Take care and thanks for reading!

Dangerous heat wave hits Jacksonville

Saturday, August 6, 2011

Heat advisory in effect until 9 p.m. for the entire viewing area. Dangerous heat and humidity will continue today with highs in the middle 90s beaches to near 100 inland. Heat indices will range from 110 to 120 which will make it feel like the hottest day of the year. A front that was trying to bring us relief is stalling well to our north as you can see! The two headed high pressure monster with big claws and teeth will dominate our weather.


This is the same heat wave that has caused dozens of deaths across the country. Make sure to slow it down and take the heat seriously. Limit outdoor exposure and make sure to find a cool spot for your pets. Only 30% of us will see a cooling shower or storm by mid to late afternoon.

Emily is no more in the tropics but we are still feeling the effects in the form of 2 to 2.5 foot surf on our Saturday. Thank you Linda for sending in this great picture of Franklyn surfing at Neptune Beach yesterday! The good news is Emily weakened so rapidly strong run outs are no longer expected! So we will have plenty of more good swimming and surfing today. Make sure to get out and surf while you can because by Sunday afternoon it will fall to only 1.5 feet. If you are boating seas should remain between 2 to 4 feet with only a light inland chop.

I will be back with much more including an update on the tropics. Now back to Good Morning Jacksonville! Have a wonderful day!

July Goes out with a Bang & Keeping a Keen Eye on Emily

Sunday, July 31, 2011

I was shocked last night that our disturbance in the Atlantic was not named Emily. The thunderstorms have become better organized and with low wind shear explosive development is likely. Well I can stop worrying about it today because the hurricane hunters are on the way to confirm that we do have a tropical storm. This system should not take long to become the season's first hurricane. Puerto Rico will likely see hurricane conditions by the middle of the week before this storm swings farther west and northwest toward the Bahamas. Notice it is still over 2,000 miles away from Jacksonville as of early Sunday morning.

I have a feeling we will be talking about Emily not only this week but well into next week. This will be a long-lived tropical cyclone and the big question everybody is asking me at the grocery store is where this thing is heading. I of course always preface my answer with things can change especially with Emily so far from home and the upper-level patterns not set in stone. But here is the way it looks to play out right now. Let's start with my tropical graphic for next Saturday, August 6th.

Notice the latest model runs have a hurricane bearing down on not only on San Juan but Hispaniola and even the far southwestern Bahamas. We will have to see how it holds together after interacting with the land masses. I am thinking it will hold its own. How about the US? Well for a land-falling hurricane we look at the upper-levels and the wind along the East Coast the next 1-2 weeks looks like it will be primarily out of the southwest due to a mean trough of low pressure setting up. Hurricanes tend to follow the upper winds like hot air balloons.

This would mean we are home free right? Well not so fast. There is an indication of some ridging or high pressure briefly building in the East next weekend while the higher southwest winds lift away. This could actually cause Emily to stall out along the southeast coast as a weak pressure pattern takes hold. Another cold front reinforcing the mean trough is expected to swing to do the East Coast Swing by Monday the 8th of August and this could finally help send Emily out to sea for good. But again this is a long ways out and a lot can still change.

The good news is the two huge high pressures that have controlled our summer weather so far are not centered along the East Coast and connecting very well. There is a definite weakness and this should help us out! But until our weather team gives the all clear please monitor it closely with us. We know how fickle these storms can be. I still do think we will see plenty of good surf by late week with beach erosion becoming a concern. This is a good wake-up call that our real hurricane season is now here. Make sure you pick up your First Coast News tracking charts and supplies! Now is the time. In fact we have a hurricane special airing on Thursday night at 8 p.m. on NBC you will certainly not want to miss!

The tropics are not the only thing firing up on our Sunday. We will have the summer thunderstorms that were conspicuously absent on Saturday make a return today. Yes! What a great month it has been for rain with over 7 inches at Jacksonville International.  The average is 5.97". Some spots have had over 10" and this has gone a long way to helping put a dent in the drought. July is not done bringing us rain just yet.

Today we will have thunderstorms covering 50% of the area this afternoon. These storms will be slow-movers and move from the north to the south and southwest. Brief flooding is possible. There could be an isolated strong storm as an area of low pressure interacts with sea breeze, river breeze, and thunderstorm boundaries across the area. Make sure to tune in for the latest on Live Doppler radar.

If  you are going to the beach today I would not cancel plans. Most of the rain should stay to the West of A1A and this includes the St. Augustine Amphitheater where Selena Gomez plays tonight at 7 p.m. I know my daughters are excited! Get out and enjoy a nice evening!

Before the rain arrives we will once again have plenty of heat and humidity with highs near 90 beaches to the middle 90s inland with a heat index near 105-110! But I do have some good news! Congratulations, you have officially made it through the hottest part of the summer at least climatologically. I know my car air-conditioner has not keeping up very well with this heat even when it is on high blast!

But it will be okay because today's average high temperature in Jacksonville falls to 90 degrees and by the end of September we will fall to 83 but the humidity will still be a bear! I think you will really notice the difference by Mid-October when the first strong fronts from the North actually hold together and make it through the area. But we are now heading in the right direction so enjoy the hot weather while you can. Have a great day! Take care and I will see you soon.

Heat advisories issued! Beat the heat with cheesecake!

Saturday, July 30, 2011

Happy National Cheesecake Day! You are looking at my number one way to beat the heat today! Drink plenty of water and find your cool spots but you enjoy a nice big slice or two of an Olympian delicacy. That is right cheesecake was fed to the very first Olympic athletes in Greece and today you can go for the gold while staying cool! I had the pleasure of tasting the Hershey's Chocolate Bar cheesecake on Good Morning Jacksonville with anchor Len Kiese. It was silky smooth with layers of moist chocolate cake and creamy chocolate frosting with chocolate chips. There was also the white chocolate cheesecake that I am hiding in the back refrigerator. Hopefully nobody at First Coast News is reading this! Shhhhhhh! I want to thank the Cheesecake Factory and remember any slice of their cheesecake is half-price. So show some love and take your date out for dessert and I bet you will forget about the heat in a hurry. You will need to. The latest heat indices at noon are a whopping 107 in Waycross to 102 in downtown Jacksonville.

This afternoon some spots could feel like 115 especially in southeast Georgia. As a result the National Weather Service has put most of our area in a heat advisory. Last year we set a record of 102 on this date and even though I think we will fall short with highs in the middle to upper 90s. It will feel like a record that is for sure. The Jaguars played it smart this morning with a short practice as you see below. It was really only a walk-through but just walking out in all that heat and humidity is tough even by Florida standards!

I really enjoyed watching the first practice on Thursday with my three daughters. They actually sat in the stands with me for over 30 minutes. Now that is love and I am so proud of all of them and so lucky! They are turning into true Jags fans that is for sure. We had plenty of sunscreen and bottles of water but it was hot in the stands on Thursday. The great part is there are cool zone fans that can cool you down if you decide you want to go cheer the teal on this evening. Just keep in mind it will still feel close the 90s to near 100 even at 7 p.m. You always have the cheesecake as Plan B or can go cool down afterwards!

Do not expect much help from nature today in the way of cooling thunderstorms. We have too much sinking air keeping the cross-wind collisions to a minimum. There may be a lone storm or two west of the river but I think our best chance of seeing rain this weekend will be on Sunday. Some of the latest models show storms igniting for about half the area if not more on Sunday thanks to low pressure moving in and high pressure moving out.

Now with plenty of moisture and heat to work with we cannot rule out a strong storm or two. I will keep monitoring it carefully throughout the weekend for you and have the latest on your only Live Doppler Radar.
These rainfall numbers are only averages and can be much higher if you get under a storm. It could certainly rain cats and dogs....speaking of cats...remember you can pick out a cat today and give it a loving home by going to the Jacksonville Humane Society for as little as 15 dollars with all their shots taken care of already.

In the tropics, Don is no more! Unfortunately it fizzled out so badly before bringing needed rain to Texas. But the latest tropical wave will be anything but a fizzler. I am predicting Emily to form by late this weekend at a tropical storm. Emily will not only be the season's first hurricane but likely a major hurricane with wind speeds over 110 miles per hour. If you look at the forecast tropical tracks this morning notice more than half of our best models are indicating that it will likely curve out into the open Atlantic by late next week and weekend but since it has yet to form it really is too early to speculate. One thing is for certain and that is we should have some big surf here in Florida by Friday! Just be careful of the rip currents. I do expect an active hurricane season and we are way ahead of schedule already on named storms. Take a look!

We are already about 3 named storms above average and keep in mind 90% of all tropical cyclone activity occurs after August 1st. This is not a good sign and is another reason to make sure you prepare now. First Coast News will be airing a hurricane special this coming up Thursday at 8 p.m. I think you will enjoy it. It is not your typical run of the mill hurricane special and includes a home....well I cannot give it away. You will just have to watch! Have a great day and make sure to send in some pictures of how you are staying cool...cheesecake eating and all!