Back into Nature's Soup & Watching for Strong T-Storms

As of noon temperatures are in the lower 80s with dewpoints in the lower 70s and thunderstorms are already erupting across the Florida Big Bend area and moving our way. This morning we did have a few showers around as expected in portions of Baker and Ware Counties but this afternoon I think all of us get in on the action. Yesterday you see the thunderstorm that brought blinding rain to Fruit Cove Middle School. Today we will see a repeat of this with the main threats with these storms continuing to be lightning and heavy downpours. Keep in mind there have been two lightning fatalities across the country over the past few days so even if your weather radio does not go off with a thunderstorm warning take all storms seriously. The lightning fact of the day: Convertible rooftops offer you no protection from storms. You need to find a car with a metal roof because that is what protects you from lightning, not your vehicle's tires. We could have up to 100 lightning strikes per minute by late this afternoon.

I am going to go run some errands and cut my lawn before the rain gets here and then I will be back here on the blog with the latest on the storms, how much rain is on the way, and why the weekend looks like it is in jeopardy based on the latest ensemble runs.

What is an ensemble run? Yes, it is a whole lot different than your community 5K Run and Walk. It is a meteorologist's Zoo Run Run so to speak. Basically meteorologists like to get as many opinions as possible on the the weather by looking at more than a dozen weather models. Each model is based on a different mathematical model with its own assumptions. That is why we have a whole slew of low pressures on the map above all in different locations. While it may look confusing to you it really helps meteorologists cover as many bases as possible. I like looking at up to 20 different models a day. Usually by averaging out what the models are telling you it gives you a good guide to help forecast our weather makers, especially more than 60 hours into the future. Notice on the map above nature's boardroom (ensembles) cuts off another low pressure in western Florida this weekend. This will keep us in nature's soup or that southwest flow.

This means we will have to plan for thunderstorms not just for today but throughout the weekend. It will not be as nice as last weekend that is for sure. This does not mean we will have a total washout and I would still plan on going to the Trot for Tots at Jacksonville Municipal Stadium on Saturday morning. We will just have to remember our lightning safety rules and even beware of a higher risk of severe weather beginning this afternoon. Take a look at why below.

We have some stronger winds aloft moving into Florida over the next few days. Even though wind speeds of 25 to 35 mph does not seem too high at 5,000 feet above the ground it is plenty to crank out wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph. What happens is when thunderstorms tower up to 10 miles high into the atmosphere this wind energy spawns stronger updrafts. For every strong updraft there is a strong downdraft and as rain starts falling it pulls this extra wind energy to the ground at much higher speeds. Yes that wind can gain quite a bit of momentum when it starts from 40,000 and 50,000 feet high in the atmosphere. Many times you can get downburst winds or straightline winds that can cause considerable damage. We have already had flood advisories and severe thunderstorm warnings for Glynn and Camden Counties in Georgia. This trend should continue over the next couple days.

As far as rainfall amounts our modeling data usually does a poor job of handling just how much rain we are going to have especially when it comes to thunderstorms. Back in May most of our models were calling for about 3 to 6 inches of rain. That more than double in many areas. This time around we will not be fooled by the map above. You see one to two inches of rain on the way between now and Sunday. I think it is safe to say a much better average will be 2 to 5 inches of rain with a couple spots up near six inches before things try to dry out a bit by Monday but even that is not a guarantee at this point. Checking out satellite and radar maps are key to tropical forecasting this time of year and you see below why I am bullish on the rain.

I will talk more about our June Outllook for rainfall and tell you why we may have to get used to this pattern over the next few weeks. Be careful out there and thanks for reading.

Here Comes a June Monsoon! Downpours and Water Spouts Move Into Florida

May went in the books as one of the stormiest ever and after a quiet start to June get ready for Florida's version of a June monsoon. Already this morning strong storms are hitting the Florida Panhandle with water spouts near Panama City. The picture above was a water spout taken near Miami Beach a couple weeks ago with the last deluge of rain to hit the state of Florida. While I do not expect a repeat of record rainfall like we saw in May, most parts of Florida should end up with another one to three inches of rain over the next five days. This is good news, especially for areas of southern Florida where there is still a moderate drought. Here is the latest drought monitor available.

This map shows a huge turnaround of almost historic proportions. Since May 19th the state of Florida has gone from 80% drought coverage to just under 10%. The severe and extreme drought that covered 37% of the state now stands at 0%. Here closer to home there are no more drought conditions and parts of Flagler County went from a ten inch deficit to a ten to fifteen inch surplus in rainfall. This is truly amazing! Now we do average high evaporation rates this time of year in the hot Florida sun which comes out to close to five inches of water a week. So our plants and trees can dry out quickly even after record-setting rains. The good news is you can keep saving on your irrigation needs and help the Floridan aquifer. We will not need to water thanks to nature sending us a June monsoon, Florida style.

Usually this time of year we are used to a nice refreshing southeast wind off the ocean around a Bermuda high pressure offshore. So even on our hottest days, the nature offers some free air conditioning like we saw yesterday as highs dropped from near 90 to the lower 80s by early evening. It made for some great beach and pool weather and that Chamber of Commerce weather is quite common this time of year. My daughter Lauren shows us just what Chamber of Commerce weather is by enjoying the water slide. This weather pattern has even had one of my other daughters Abbey doing backflips as you see below. She still has no fear, except when it comes to severe weather.

Abbey knows the power of nature and we need to be on guard when the wind switches from the typical southeast direction to the opposite direction! Over the next couple of days our wind flow at all levels of the atmosphere is turning to the south and southwest. My Florida weather saying today is, "When the wind turns southwest, meteorologists have no rest. It usually correlates with some of our stormiest weather this time of year and the next few days will be no exception. So even though this monsoon will not last for a few months like we see out West or on the Arabian Peninsula we will have a mini version of it right here at home over the next few days. Be ready for more rain. You can see the stormy clouds taking over Florida this morning on the latest satellite picture.

We have a frontal boundary to the north moving south and an upper-level disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico moving our way. This is drawing up a lot of moisture and helping to turn our winds to the south and southwest.

As of early afternoon the forecast is on target as thunderstorms are popping along the two sea-breezes as you see above. It will be a day where I pick up my kids at the bus stop. Eventually both of these fronts will converge and work their way back to the east by this evening and as a Gulf disturbance moves our way we could even see a few showers and storms through the First Coast overnight which is not too common for this time of year. We may not see this pattern break until at least Sunday. Check back on the blog tomorrow for more on the June monsoon and your June Outlook to see if this will be a recurring pattern over the next few weeks. Have a great day and stay safe in the thunderstorms.

Revised Hurricane Forecast Calls for Lower Numbers But Caution Remains High

The angry ocean with waves up to 10 feet during the Storm with No Name back in May. We will be watching the ocean for tropical development more carefully since water temperatures are quickly warming up to 80 degrees or above. It will be a season where we can go from sunny to stormy in an instant.

Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray have just come out with their new tropical season forecast for 2009 and it confirms what we have been talking about here on the weather blog. My updated forecast last week was for 10 named storms and 5 hurricanes which is slightly below average. Dr. Gray's team is calling for 11 named storms and 5 hurricanes with 2 hurricanes with wind speeds at 111 mph or greater. The big reasons for an even more optmistic forecast than this team released a few weeks ago which called for up to 14 named storms and 7 hurricanes all has to do with sea-surface temperatures. The Atlantic Ocean is experiencing some of its coolest water temperature readings since 1994 and at the same time the equatorial Pacific Ocean is quickly heating up to above average values which tells us to get ready for another full-fleged El Nino. The El Nino could develop into a fairly strong one by time the peak of our season arrives which would mean more wind shear and less tropical storm development.

But as we saw in 1992 when there were only 7 named storms in an El Nino we had one monster category five hurricane that hit South Florida...that is right HURRICANE ANDREW. This pattern also tells us to be ready for tropical systems to pop quickly in areas near the coastlines since that is where all the shallower, warmer water will be located. This pop-up hurricane pattern has become more prevalent over the past couple of seasons and this year we will have to be ready again. Instead of days to prepare, we may only have hours to get ready for hurricane conditions like we saw with Hurricane Humberto in Texas back in 2007. Be ready. Know your storm surge and evacuation zones by clicking on this link below.

http://www.coj.net/Departments/Fire+and+Rescue/Emergency+Preparedness/Get+Ready/Evac+Zones.htm

If you live in St. Johns County make sure to click these links for critical information.

ftp://ftp.bocc.co.st-johns.fl.us/gis/media/MapMart/evacuation.

http://www.co.st-johns.fl.us/BCC/Emergency_Mgmt_Services/evac.html

You just have to click on the map and it will detail the quickest way to evacuate. Staying alert and being ready to act will be extra important this season.

This afternoon be ready for some changes to the forecast. We have had such beautiful weather around the area with 4 consecutive days of dry weather after 17 days of tracking storms in at least some parts of the area. A few isolated storms will pop up from Interstate 75 into areas near Baker County by mid to late afternoon along the sea breeze front. The dewpoints are high enough now that even areas near the river could see a pop up storm, but for today at least most of the rain should stay from Starke westward. It must be June and after all this is the time of year now when thunderstorm season gets into full swing. At least we have enjoyed some incredible weather as you see above. Notice the pink sunset delight on Sunday evening with the waxing quarter moon adding to the skygazer's delight. Contrast that scene to what we saw last night. Tropical clouds heralding the return of humidity put a ring around that same moon telling us that thunderstorms will be returning to North Florida.

Meteorologists like taking a look at dewpoints or the true measure of humidity in the atmosphere to determine if thunderstorms will pop. The higher the dewpoints, the better chance of thunderstorms. Notice the big changes in the dewpoint charts from yesterday to today and this is one big reason why a few isolated thunderstorms are going to develop over the area this afternoon.

The pink areas show where the sultry humid weather was located yesterday. Notice South Florida and its dewpoints in the lower 70s compared to our dewpoints here at home closer to the lower 60s. This is why we stayed dry and they had some thunderstorms with tops up near 45,000 feet. This nice dry slug of comfortable air will be something we will be wishing for as soon as this afternoon as dewpoints rise back into the lower 70s. The dewpoint map below for this afternoon tells it all.

I think most of our widespread thunderstorms over the First Coast will hold off until Thursday and Friday with a drying trend this weekend. It does look like we will be able to save on those watering bills again. Make sure to check back here on the blog tomorrow for more on this, how much rain you can expect, and which areas of Florida are still in a drought. But without further adieu here are some incredible storm pictures from the Midwest that has been rocked over the past few days and more specifically the Lafayette, Indiana area. Saturday night I received some incredible reports and pictures and felt like I was there. Thanks for keeping me in the loop. Here is a picture sent in by Teri Trent with not one but two pileus caps spotted in the towering cumulus clouds. This was the first sign of severe weather.

These "hats on clouds" are a sign of strong updrafts and plenty of moisture and instability in the atmosphere. This means nature is close to its tipping point and it was as you can see below. Randy Rogers captured these wall clouds just east of Frankfort. These are some of the most impressive pictures of ominous clouds I have ever seen.

Developing....

Hurricane Season is Here and it Should Be Anything But Normal

It's official! Hurricane season is underway. Things are quiet based on the latest satellite picture due to extensive shear in the Gulf, Carribean, and Lesser Antilles depicted by the yellow and white colors above. Unfortunately do not get used to it. I am watching a more active Madden Julian Oscillation developing, a ridge expected to develop over the Gulf, and an intensifying El Nino. By this time next week things will look a lot more interesting and by later next week we may be talking about our first storm of the season developing. All we have been hearing from the experts is how it looks to be a normal year with about 10 named storms and six hurricanes. But the latest look at tropics looks like it is anything but normal. Nature has done a complete flip-flop from what I am used to seeing when it comes to pressure patterns, trade winds, sea surface temperatures, and moisture. This means be ready for anything and everything this season.

Tropical Storm Abby's track that impacted the First Coast on June 7,1968 with sustained winds of 50 mph along with flooding. This year some models are showing a repeat of a wild start to our hurricane season.

There are cooler than average waters over the deep tropics along with a stronger than normal Azores High Pressure system bringing a drier than average atmosphere with Saharan African dust primed to take over the Atlantic. This will lead to higher pressures forming in the Intertropical Covergence Zone and will cause a distinct domino effect that will bring corresponding lower pressures and a higher risk of development closer to the land areas including the coastline of the United States.

What this means for us at home is not the best of news. Tropical systems will have less of a chance to turn out to sea like we see so often when they approach the northeast Florida Coast and we may have less time to prepare when one of these storms form. You remember Humberto that hit Texas back in 2007 when that storm went from a tropical disturbance to a full-fledged hurricane in less than 24 hours. This is a disturbing trend that could be repeated over the next few years. Pop up thunderstorms will not be the only thing in our Florida forecast this summer but more ominously "pop-up hurricanes". So when you hear that it is important to be ready and prepared ahead of time. This is the year to heed that warning.

If this is not enough, I also see an early tropial season like we saw in June, 1968 when we had three named storms. Normally the tropics do not get cranked up until August and September. This year we have similar weather patterns in place that match up eerily with 1968. This is what we call an analog year. By knowing what happened in the past it can help be a guide for you to help you understand what may come together in the atmosphere in the future. It is a great forecast tool and we will see if it works this year.

Hurricane Dora's track above. It was a category two storm that brought an average of 10 inches of rain across Northeast Florida. The May storm of 2009 actually brought a little more rain to the area with an average rainfall of 12 inches!

Consider what happened in May a warning sign for what we can expect in the tropics this year. We were very close to having two named storms in May in the Atlantic basin. The storm with no name brought rain amounts never before seen from a non-named storm according to many locals. Clay and Nassau Counties ended up with 8 to 12 inches. Duval County had 10 to 17 inches of rain, St. Johns and Putnam Counties had 12 to 18 inches of rain, while Flagler County had 24 to 30 inches of rain. This was more rain than Hurricane Dora brought to the area and brought back bad memories of Tropical Storm Fay. The May storm washed away roads and in its wake will have a major impact on how we will view this hurricane season. This year throw out all the percentages. Areas that normally are in the middle of common hurricane tracks like south Florida where chances of hurricanes each year are near 16% may have less of a threat while our backyards have a higher risk. That is right to emphasize this remember that areas that normally are not prone to hurricanes will have a higher risk and this year and it includes the Jacksonville and St. Augustine areas. In a typical year northeast Florida has a 2 percent chance of a hurricane or a 5% chance of a direct hit from a tropical storm. This gives our area the lowest risk of being hit by a hurricane in the state of Florida, but it can and does happen. We all remember Hurricane Dora that hit the First Coast as a category two storm. You see its infamous path above.

Here is a picture of the Castillo de San Marcos in St. Augustine. It may not have been called our country's oldest city if it were not for a hurricane that hit the First Coast in 1565!

We all hear that before Dora no other hurricane had every been recorded. This is not true. It may be true in modern history but according to historical records northeast Florida has been hit by several hurricanes and the city of St. Augustine you see above may not have been founded in 1565 if it were not for a hurricane that hit the area. The hurricane actually helped the Spanish defeat the French forces and this in turn helped it become the first European Settlement in the United States. There are also reports of huge hurricanes that hit our area back in 1765, 1837, and 1848. Now are you ready to put together your family disaster plan. Okay, you can go to this link and get started.

http://www.floridadisaster.org/family/

It should not take you long to fill out all your necessary information. It took my family less than a half-hour. Have a great day and tomorrow we will take a look at why humidity and thunderstorms will make a return to your forecast as early as tomorrow. I will pinpoint when and where those finicky Florida thunderstorms will pop! To all my Indiana friends....batten down the hatches once again today. I will make sure to post some of your incredible pictures of pileus caps and wall clouds taken on Saturday evening. The same stormy set-up will be in place the next couple of days and this front will actually spawn more storms here in Florida by late week.

Gators Seek Higher Ground & We May Need to Get to Our Safe Spots Late Today & Tonight

It has been quite a run when it comes to all the wild and rainy weather and when I say "run" it is not just because today will be our 17th consecutive day with rain in the area. A lot of folks have been running from alligators that have infested many areas that have been swamped with flood waters. The picture above shows one of the many gators spotted around the area over the last couple weeks in places they usually are not found. This was a seven foot alligator spotted just a few feet from a West Side business last week on its new waterfront property. Some areas have had close to 20 inches of rain so far this month, especially to the south of Jacksonville and I could not find a wetter month in the record books since records have been kept. Even though the airport has had 13.51" and it looks like it will fall short of the all-time monthly rainfall record of 14.81 inches it does not matter. Nobody lives at the airport. The real weather story is this is the wettest month ever for most of us here in the Jacksonville and St. Augustine areas. It has been like a monsoon out there that you would normally find in India. The rising waters have forced not just alligators but many snakes them from their normal habitats. Some gators showed up in some of the flood waters at Clark's Fish Camp in Mandarin this week and they were in no mood to order gator tail. The huge Town Center shopping area near UNF had its power knocked out for about an hour yesterday due to some unruly snakes that have had enough of this weather.

Be on the outlook for more gators, snakes, and thunderstorms today! We are not done yet believe it or not. The Storm Prediction Center has areas from downtown Jacksonville northward in a slight risk for severe weather and the outline above may not cover the entire area but I think we will all have to keep a close eye to the sky by late today and even overnight. So expect the storms to come a little later today and the storms that due develop could bring some damaging winds and more dangerous lightning across the area like we saw yesterday that exploded a tree near Green Cove Springs. We average about 90 thunderstorm days per year here in Jacksonville so it is easy to let your guard down as they come through the area. Remember all storms are dangerous and today you need to pay extra close attention to the thunderstorms that fire up because these storms will be working with a few extra ingredients that lead to stronger storms here in Florida. Notice the latest CAPE values (convective available potential energy). The higher these values and the more reds and whites you see on the map below the more likely you will see severe thunderstorm warnings.

If you have walked and outside you can cut the air with a knife due to dewpoints in the 70s. This sauna-like atmosphere can give way to updrafts that build thunderstorms by carrying up to 10,000 tons of water laloft. Adding to the instability is our strongest front in weeks on the way along with a slug of dry air in the mid-levels. This drier air will cause the atmosphere to overturn and allow our updrafts to really rocket upward. I can easily see 50,000 foot plus tops developing on these thunderstorms today. The good news is that better days are ahead and we will see our driest pattern setting up in three weeks along with our first 90 degree days since May 9th on the way for the weekend. Just rememer the sunscreen with a sunburn possible this weekend in as little as 15 minutes as we dry out and the Sunshine State of Florida finally lives up to its name.

This is a good reminder that the sun angle is so strong and high in the sky it gave way to a rare phenomenon the Jacksonville sky off Baymeadows Way on Wednesday called a fire rainbow. Now my camera did not capture this amazing sight. It only lasted a brief minute after I first spotted it. By time I pulled off the Interstate it was gone. But at least I did capture a picture of the group of clouds that helped briefly light up the sky like I have never seen before. The cirrus clouds making that "C" shape is where I saw a the bright glow of orange, red, and blue. I checked all of the requirements to see a fire rainbow and the conditions matched up perfectly. You need a high sun angle which I had in the early afternoon. You have to have cirrus clouds....check! The cirrus clouds seemed to be debris clouds from developing thunderstorms to our south and west. These were not the typical wispy cirrus clouds I am used to seeing. The third thing you need are for ice crystals to be aligned at a perfect 90 degree angle along with the sunlight entering and exiting the ice crystals at just the right angle. It is like what you would need for a perfect storm to form but in this case it was the perfect rainbow that formed. I did go through several fire rainbow pictures and this one below looks most like what I saw.

This picture does not really tell the whole story and I know it was the first time I have ever seen one of these rainbows and I hope you get a chance to someday as well. The silver lining is finally here in our Jacksonville sky as I think we totally dry out over the weekend and our next chance of any significant rain after today and tonight would not be until next week. The same front bringing us the big change has made it through Atlanta with beautiful results. Get used to seeing fair weather clouds like you see below over our backyards.

Bring it on! We are all ready for the sunshine. Now for my Midwest friends the same northwest flow helping to dry us out here in Florida will bring a couple weak disturbances your way. The first one will arrive late today and this evening with a pop up shower or thunderstorm. Watch for some small hail with the cooler air aloft. On Saturday the second disturbance moves through in the morning and early afternoon but I think most of the rain will stay south of Interstate 74. So all in all a great weekend from Florida to Indiana is on the way. I know I am looking forward to the Sail Jacksonville festivities and the fireworks on Saturday night at 9:45 p.m. The good news is we are talking man-made fireworks for once.

Have a great weeknd and I am working on adding forecast video to go on this blog that will fill in all the important forecast details. This is still a work in progress and I am looking forward to this blog going national in the next couple of weeks and reaching a whole lot more folks. I appreciate all my Midwest friends keeping in touch and I love reading your posts every day and of course the pictures. Here is a nice bright picture sent in by Justin New that tells our weather story this weekend very nicely. It may not be a fire rainbow but it is quite impressive! Developing....

Rainbows, Fire Rainbows, & Now Tropical Depression One Forms Oh My!

The big news this morning is tropical depression one has formed and it could briefly become tropical storm Ana before it moves into cooler waters and becomes extratropical. You can see the bright white swirl in the Atlantic which is showing better organization. That bright white color is being caused by thunderstorms reaching up near 60,000 feet and they are now wrapping around its low pressure center giving us a good indication this is not only a tropical depression but it will briefly become tropical storm Ana. The good news is this is a "fish storm" and it poses no threat to land. The NOAA storm track which I agree with takes it quickly out to see as you see below.

I do think it is a sign of a busy start to our hurricane season which officially does not begin until Monday. A few long-range maps just in this morning show more trouble in the tropics by the middle of June. So as of now I still think our tropical season this year peaks in July and August before quickly diminishing in September due to increased wind shear and El Nino conditions. I am forecasting 10 named storms with 4 hurricanes this year which compared to average is slightly below average. But again numbers do not matter, it is all about preparation and mitigation as I learned from Craig Fugate back when I was a meteorologist in Gainesville, Florida. It takes only one storm to ruin your life and Craig helped me do a story on a mock storm we named Zack and what people should be doing as it grew from an area of thunderstorms to a hurricane. It was an education for me to say the least. Craig Fugate is a Florida native from Alachua County and he actually helped develop that county's emergency management back in the late 1980s. Craig became the Florida Emergency Management Director in 2001 and in 2004 he managed the largest federal disaster in our country's history as hurricanes Charlie, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne turned the land of paradise upside down. I am excited to say that Craig is our new FEMA director and I can tell you based on meeting, talking, and working with him in the past I know he will do a great job. Here are a few tips from Craig of what you can do BEFORE hurricane season begins.

1) Develop a family emergency plan.

2) Take a first aid emergency class and learn a skill.

3) In the event of a disaster be prepared to secure the family first and then go and check on a neighbor.

I know these tips work well for everybody in our country whether you live in hurricane country or not. I will have more details on these tips and much more here on the blog over the next few days and weeks including hurricane evacuation routes. This will be a must-see and another reason to check back and also become a blogger. My best advice is for all my friends back in the Midwest is to also follow these tips because as you know tornadoes and severe weather also ravage your area and the meat and potatoes of your tornado season is on the way over the next 4 to 6 weeks.

Now today if you are going to be running some errands and making me proud by stocking up on disaster supplies be ready for another round of storms. By 10 a.m. you can see a new batch of storms already forming on the Gulf side of Florida and they will quickly move our way by early and mid-afternoon. I do think like yesterday most of the rain should be done by 6 p.m. thanks to a nice southwest to west breeze at 25 to 35 mph up at 10,000 feet. This is where you look to see what direction storms are moving from and how fast they will move. Many times in Florida the upper-levels of the atmosphere are stagnant with no strong fronts nearby and thunderstorms hold off until later in the day. But we are in a much faster flow as you see below.

Now since last week when the system with no name came through the area (many are now thinking it should have been named in the meteorological community) I have had nearly 14 inches of rain so we are not done yet. Look for another .25" to .50" of rain today with locally heavier downpours. We will wash, rinse, and repeat one more time tomorrow before our most significant front brining drier air for the weekend moves our way. I will have more on this front here on the blog as it draws closer and I DO THINK PARTS OF FLORIDA WILL SEE SEVERE WEATHER WITH IT TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. I cannot leave you on a bad note so here is something to make your day.

Look for more beautiful rainbows to form around the area today. Here is what it looked like yesterday near Creekside High School. I of course quickly pulled off to the side of the road and captured it for you. I also saw my first fire rainbow yesterday! This almost caused an accident on Interstate 95 but luckily I had enough sense to keep on moving and got a better look at it off the Baymeadows exit! What is a fire rainbow and what causes it? Your answer is on the way. I did at least get a picture of the batch of clouds that caused it before it dissipated.

Also I have an INDIANA UPDATE ON THE WAY WHICH INCLUDES A STORMY PATTERN SETTING UP BY NEXT WEEK...INCREDIBLE SUNSET PICTURES FROM LAFAYETTE'S OWN JUSTIN NEW....FLORIDA DROUGHT UPDATE.....GATOR AND MOSQUITO UPDATES ALSO ON THE WAY.....

Make it a great day!!!

A Case of Deja-Vu But This Weekend Tracking Something New!

Here we go again. Well this is the lighting capital of the world. Today will be our 15th straight day with rain in the Jacksonville and St. Augustine, Florida area. I am not superstitious but am really starting to believe in deja-vu! Yesterday, you see the cumulonimbus clouds building in all of the heat and humidity and as expected we tracked the dominant Gulf Sea Breeze that helped to fire up late day and evening storms. Today look for this scene to be repeated. We do have a deja-vu pattern continuing with another round of thunderstorms on the way mainly between 3 p.m. and 7 p.m. You see why below. Notice the high PW values!

What is PW? It stands for Precipitable Water values which is the average amount of water vapor that is evaporated in a column of air from the ground to 36,000 feet. What happens is the higher these values in Florida, the better chances of thunderstorms forming especially when you involve sea breezes this time of year. Notice all of the values throughout the peninsula are in the 1.5" to 2.0" range. This warm and humid air mass is what helps fire up and feeds our thunderstorms. These thunderstorms actually compress all of this moisture and can even entrain more moisture in this tropical air mass in our air column of concern. This means it is possible to have some areas under a slow-moving localized thunderstorm to see even more than 2" of rain. Today I think a good average will be another .50" to 1" of rain as our thunderstorms squeeze out plenty of water in our sponge-like atmosphere. Look for thunderstorms to move northeast at 15 to 20 mph. We cannot rule out a few wind gusts near 45 mph. Even if we are not expecting widespread severe weather you always want to remember your lightning safety rules. Here I am wearing this big reminder on this sunny morning. I want to thank my daughter Megan for taking this picture.

Yes, get to your safe spot when you hear thunder or see lightning. Yes, your safe spot in this case would be to get away from this magnolia tree and get inside toward the lower interior of your home and away from windows. Do not touch anything that is plugged in and stay away from all plumbing. When you hear nature rumble this means you are in danger and are close enough to be struck by lightning. Most people get struck by lightning well ahead and after the main part of the storm has passed. Remember the weather saying. If you hear it clear it! If you see it flee it! This is not just a saying it can save your life. Most people are in fact struck by lightning when it is not raining outside and there are many jet skiiers in Florida that can attest to this. I do not want you to also learn this lesson the hard way. Yesterday we went from sunny to stormy in a hurry and you can see the gust front that whipped through St. Johns or just south of the Mandarin area.

There were a few low-hanging scud clouds but no rotation as the thunderstorms moved through. The main threat was some vivid lightning and it was a good tune up for what is on the way today. If there is good news I do see an end in this never-ending thunderstorm pattern. Check out the strongest front in about 3 weeks ready to move our way this weekend.

The picture above is small but this front is a big deal. I circled it in blue for good reason. Rain chances could actually be less than 10% by Sunday into early next week after today's 16th straight day of rain in the area. Even Saturday looks drier with only an lone shower or storm possible impacting less than 30% of us.

We can look forward to great pool weather like we saw on Memorial Day as you see above. Check out my daughter's hair standing on end due to the extreme friction created by one of the fastest water slides I have ever been on. My wife tried to take the picture of my big wipe-out but it was a big blur of water and my legs up in the air. So I thought this picture above would be a little easier to see. This weekend it looks like you will not have to worry about your hair standing on end due to lightning about to strike for once. This front will also be strong enough to keep a dry pattern going for us and much of the Midwest including Indiana and Ohio. That is right Wea, Wainright, and Southwestern Middle Schools it still looks like it will be a great weekend to go to Kings Island and you will have some nice relief from the humidity. I cannot let the cat out of the bag but be ready for a special visitor from Florida coming your way. She is super excited! How about some more good news since I am on a roll? Here is the latest in the tropics.

Even though you see a pretty good spin-up of clouds off the coast of the Carolinas thunderstorm activity is not organizing around a common center and this tropical low is not only poorly organized but will be moving over cooler waters. Here is the latest from the National Hurricane Center as of 8 a.m. on Wednesday morning.

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS IS LOCATEDABOUT 120 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. WHILECONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...THESYSTEM HAS A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFOREREACHING THE COLDER OCEAN TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE CAROLINAS. ASTHE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH AT 10-15 MPH...THESYSTEM COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS TO COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA LATERTODAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THISSYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ANAIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THISAFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY...AND AN ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICALWEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 2 PM EDT.

I could not agree more. This is a reminder that our hurricane season is only 5 days away and begins on Monday. Stay tuned for more on this here on the blog as to why I think an early start and finish to the season is likely this year and how you can keep your family ahead of the storm. Have a great day!