We Remember the Great Flood of 2008 & Watch for More Trouble in 2009

These were the doppler radar rainfall estimates we woke up with one year ago today. The red and deep red shaded areas had 3 to 6 inches of rain. Total rainfall amounts ended up in the 5 to 8 inch range with an isolated report of 10 inches in Buffalo. This comes out to a season's worth of precipitation that fell in only 10 hours. Water rescues started taking place across the area for both people and animals. You can see the stranded horses in Monon below.

The horrible images we all remember from hurricane Katrina in Louisiana were being repeated right here in our own backyards from White, Carroll, and Cass Counties up into Newton and Jasper Counties. Mary Anne in Remington shows us how homes were engulfed with water. Some folks even told me their living rooms had strong currents running through them. It is amazing we did not have more fatalities.

We were not talking about 100 year floods but water levels never before recorded or seen in areas to the north of Tippecanoe County. Here are some amazing excerpts from our newscast on January 8th.

Sue: NIPSCO recorded record flow at the Norway and Oakdale Dams.

About 100 people have been evacuated from towns in White County.

State Police say those evacuees have been taken to Red Cross Shelters at the Monon Civic Center, the White County Farm, and the Buffalo Fire Station.

Jeff Smith reports State Police helped the White and Carroll County Sheriff's Departments and crews from the DNR in helping to rescue people.

>> Mark Houser: We've lost everything, it's the worse I've ever seen it.

>> Mark and Sherry Houser have lived on the Tippecanoe River for six years.

They left home with everything they own in a plastic bag.

The Housers are among the boat-load

s evacuated from homes along the Tippy.

Donald Smith and his wife evacuated...reluctantly.

Smith rescued his dog, and put a neighbor's dogs in his garage before leaving.

>> NIPSCO spokesman Jim Fitzer says the Oakdale and Norway Dams are operating normally but they've never seen as much water.

Flow at the Oakdale Dam peaked at 26-thousand Cubic Feet per Second.

The previous record was 22,500, set in 1959.

Residents, like Gladie Van Voorst, could only watch the water rise.

>> Gladie Van Voorst: There are

26 steps to the river.

It's never been higher than today, there are only 12 showing.

Gladie Van Voorst: Thirteen showing out of 26.

Jeff: NIPSCO called a "Flood Emergency" at seven o'clock this morning.

The high water has prompted multiple eva

cuations in areas in White County including Diamond Point, Blue Wate

r, Maple Bend near Buffalo, and in the Monticello. State Police, conservation officers, and other emergency personnel are assisting in the evacuations.

White County Emergency Management Director Gordy Cochran says shelters have been set up in Monon, Buffalo, Wolcott, and Monticello. He says the northern part of the county is one of the worst hit areas.

Gordy Cochran: We are up in Buf

falo. We had to wait until daylight due to several roads up there washed out completely. We wanted to wait until daylight to get people in. We've got State Police, Fire Department, Emergency Management, Sheriff's Department up there right now going house to house to see who needs to be out and who needs help to get out.

White County's Emergency Management

Department estimates at least 200 homes have some kind of flood damage. Director Gordan Cochran says his office has been swamped with people wanting to know what to do with their damaged items. Cochran says

until President Bush declares this area a natural disaster site, he does not know what financial relief people can expect.

It was almost surreal. Entire cars were just about covered. We saw this with snow the previous year in February with the blizzard. Many folks were certainly wishing it would have been a blizzard instead of a great flood. The damage was far greater and lives changed forever. The day before the floods hit daffodils were reported in Lafayette with record highs of 69. This caused a heavy snowpack of up to 20 inches in the northern Wabash River watershed to quickly melt and with the deluge of rain on an already saturated ground it was the set-up for a historic flood that will never be forgotten.

Compare and contrast that to today and it will feel like a slice of heaven. Yes! We may be waking up with wind chills near zero but we could actually see some rare sunshine this afternoon with a lighter wind and most of all the rivers are in their banks.

We are okay for now but a big concern will continue to be flooding on area rivers for the remainder of this winter into the Spring. A La Nina pattern that brought this devastation last winter is once again gaining strength and even though it is not forecasted to be as strong I think we all need to watch things closely. This usually brings wild weather here in the Midwest with everything from big snowstorms to se vere thunderstorms. It can bring record lows followed by record warm surges like we saw last year.

I can see us going into a dangerous cycle once again. We will have periods of warmth, followed by extreme cold, then snow, another warm-up with heavy rain, then back to another shot of cold and snow. Mark your calendars down for next week when the first part of the cycle kicks in...that will be the cold...then we will watch for a bigger snow, followed by warmth and stormy weather. We will continue to fine-tune things as we get closer and I will give you plenty of advance notice here on the blog. This will be about a 3 to 4 week cycle that will try to play out over and over. Sound familiar? I am not calling for another 500 year flood, but significant flooding cannot be ruled out.

In the short-term we will watch record cold coming our way from Siberia. Check out this thermometer reading sent in by Levi from Tok, Alaska. This is southeast of Fairbanks and it actually shows the temperature at - 60 degrees! This is cold enough to explode trees and freeze mercury. A chunk of this cold air will move into Lafayette the middle of next week with lows below zero likely. I went with a conservative 8 below zero on my seven day forecast. It does depend on how much snow cover we actually have. If we have some snow to work with on the ground we could be even colder.

Now on a more positive note, I am trying to give a late Christmas gift to all the snow-lovers out there. I am heading to Florida for the next few days to run in the Disney World Marathon. It should be a blast with great running weather. Temperatures will start near 50 and I should cross the finish with low 60s! This means here at home we will be on the outlook for a bigger snow event. Even though nothing is sh owing up on the maps right now, keep your guard up. Something big always happens when I head out of town. It is the called the meteorologist jinx. So that little snow on Saturday could easily be much bigger and watch early next week closely. That is when I fly back. This is when the atmosphere usually likes to give me a thrill ride on my plane ride home. I saw severe storms lash the ear th and bounce my plane up and down last time I flew home. One other year Buffalo had like 6 inches of rain in 3 hours during big thunderstorms. Another year I flew to Maryland and Lafayette had more than 6 inches of snow. So there you have it! I am doing all I can to bring you some snow. We will see how it works out. I will only be a keyboard away in Florida and will check in with you.


We are due for snow as you see we are running about 3 to 4 inches below average. We will get our snow as we go into that active cycle. Let's just keep the floods away and on a day like today remember the lessons of the past and certainly count all of our blessings. Now I had better get to the airport. I need a laptop! I would have written you from 36,000 feet describing all those beautiful clouds as I saw them. Take care and I will talk to you soon from the land of sunshine and yes, GO GATORS!! Here is the Florida forecast put together. Just think, this will be Lafayette by late March. I do think we still see an early Spring!!

Icy Pattern About to Be Crushed with Cold

The Riehle Plaza is somewhere down there. You can see our Renaissance Camera iced over last night and our weather window really tells the story. This is the first thing I look at when I get to work everyday. Yes, I look out the window. Our weather quickly changes in Indiana and our sophisticated models are many times left in the dust. I like moving this camera from east to west and check out the clouds with the latest conditions. All too often this year it has been full of ice. I know of at least 6 people that fell walking to their cars yesterday and I am very happy to report they are all okay. It is dangerous out there and enough is enough. You can see the snizzle as I like to call it added up in Remington above. This mixture of snow and freezing drizzle created another mess yesterday especially to sidewalks, driveways, and secondary roads.

Mary Anne Best was nice enough to send this in quickly during the newscast. We need to set her up with a live weather cam for our newscast so we can check in instantly as to what is happening. This will surely help travelers heading North. She said it was a slick as a greased goose and that was my weather quote of the day, hands down! The big thing we have to remember is to stay patient and I know it is tough with COUNT THEM four ice events in the last 3 weeks. Now I do love winter weather, but I have not enjoyed this winter so far, not one bit. You can blame the ice. The good news is that our chances of ice over the next couple of weeks will be much lower with an increased chance of snow. We are expecting a flip-flop in our weather pattern which will build a ridge out West. This will dislodge all that cold weather that has been sitting in Canada. Here is a brief glimpse of what is on the way.


Fort Yukon has had high temperatures without wind chills from -40 to -50 this week. So not only will we have to watch for snow but for sub-zero temperatures between now and January 21st. I do think we will see at least one snowstorm of 6 inches or more along with two major arctic outbreaks, and NO ICE! Well, I guess we should be careful what we ask for but we are due for some snow. We very well could have had a record-breaking December for snowfall but our snow was a wintry mix as we all know. The big weather blog question of the day is how much snow would we have had if all four of our sloppy storms that produced ice, rain, and snow were in fact all snow. I can tell you we would still be digging out. I will have your answer here later today along with where we compare to average. I will check back with you soon.


This is astounding! Now this can be quite depressing for those that love snow like Randy in Frankfort but our turn is coming. I will talk more about better chances of snow in the long-range here on the blog tomorrow.

Black Ice & Cold Road Temperatures Main Concern Tonight

Winter Weather Update With Meteorologist Mike Prangley

Tonight: Patchy freezing drizzle and fog with lows of 28. The main concerns will be patchy black ice, especially on secondary roads, bridges, and overpasses. Improving conditions after 4 a.m. as the wind picks up helping to dry the atmosphere out. A southwest wind will be at 5 to 12 mph by morning.

Wednesday: Turning blustery and cold with flurries. Temperatures hold steady in the upper 20s and lower 30s. A west wind will be at 15 to 25 mph and gusty.

I will be back with those all-important road temperatures. The good news is the wind will pick up late tonight helping to dry things out on the roadways and helping to clear the fog out that will continue to freeze on cold surfaces like bridges and overpasses. This will be slow process and things may not improve until after 4 a.m. Be very careful when traveling as our winter weather advisory continues until midnight. Conditions will continue to be ripe for black ice.

Perihelion Storm More of A Miss than A Mess

Here in the wee hours of the morning I am checking in to make sure you know everything is on track for a minor weather event today. The big thing that will be our saving grace will be the extremely dry air in place. Mark in Monticello called in 19 degrees at 11 p.m. and this really tells the story. Not only do we have a cold air and dry air mass in place but the main storm track is well south of our area. Notice the stationary front above. This front will be the main train tracks of activity and it will also intercept most of the moisture from reaching us. Latest QPF estimates or the amount of precipitation expected for us will be .10" or less. I do think most of us will remain under an inch of snow and some areas especially north of Lafayette will only see flurries with little or no accumulation. Heading south be especially careful, I do not want you to let your guard down. There is a winter weather advisory from Montgomery County southward for slick travel. Here is your Crawfordsville timeline. Make sure to add extra time.


The light snow may mix with a little freezing rain and sleet mainly south of Lafayette and even though amounts of ice and snow should be light we all know that a little ice can cause big problems. So do not be fooled heading south. It can go from nothing to something bad in a hurry this morning. If you noticed I was very unimpressed by this storm and did not even give it a real name. I called it the Perihelion storm because the earth officially reached perihelion in the last few hours or its closest point to the sun in its orbit. We are only 91.3 million miles from the sun while in July we are at Aphelion or the farthest point from the sun in our orbit which comes out to about 95 million miles away. The big mistake folks make is they think that our seasons are based on the distance from the earth and the sun but in reality it is the earth's tilt. We are certainly tilted away from the sun in our orbit this time of year and we know this because of our short days and the sun staying much closer to the horizon. We have gone from 15 hours and 4 minutes of daylight at the summer solstice to just 9 hours and 31 minutes of daylight today. We are about 3 percent closer to the sun today than during July, but it certainly will not be helping our temperatures. The saying this time of year is that as the days grow longer the cold grows stronger and we will certainly feel this over the weekend here in Lafayette. The picure below is from Lake Freeman in Monticello when the sun was about 4 million miles farther away in the middle of the summer. The big difference again are the more direct rays we receive and those longer daylight hours created by the tilt of the earth on its orbit around the sun! Man, I am ready to go water skiiing now!


There is some good news and that is our darkest days of the year are officially over literally and climatologically and we will be gaining about 2 to 4 minutes of daylight the rest of January. Also we will continue to see increasing sunshine on average. We have made it through our cloudiest month of December with only 38% of possible sunshine and by February we will see 50% of our possible sunshine. This makes a huge difference. It has been proven humans and even animals are much happier and even healthier (as long as you avoid sunburns) thanks to some natural vitamin D the sun's ultraviolet rays provide. We have already been dazzled by spectacular sunsets around the area over the last couple of weeks. Here is another beautiful sunset sent in by Kierstie Phillips from Christmas Eve. Yes! We can get used to more of this!

Here is another of many beautiful pictures sent in yesterday evening. Russ Thomas who is also known as the Boudin Man or the Clark Griswold of Buckingham shows us he has some talent taking pictures. Check this scene out!

It looks like the hand of God was cradling Lafayette. Meteorologically, this dramatic scene was caused by our extremely dry atmosphere forcing any moisture from the big storm staying to our south being forced to move in at more than 30,000 feet high. These cirrus clouds were certainly beautiful. The cold, dense air was certainly holding its ground last night and it was another reason I have downplayed today's Perihelion storm. Richard Beedle called in last night and made a great observation. He said that the sky almost looked like the aurora borealis with the way those clouds re-directed the setting sun's rays. The only thing missing was the "shimmey"or curtain effect of the aurora and of course the colors are usually a brighter green or darker red that light up the night sky. We usually only see the aurora in Lafayette about once every two years on average so I made sure to dig up this picture for you for those that have never seen what a real aurora looks like. Here is what it looked like over Lafayette on November 20, 2003. I remember it looked like a volcanic eruption when I was walking the dog. It did not take long to realize it was in fact the aurora borealis!

The Weather Question of the Day: When can Lafayette expect the next aurora borealis?

I will work on this for you today and of course have an update on the winter storm. Meteorologist Stefanie Davis has you covered today and even if it is winter she will tell you all about going green this morning. It should be interesting. Have a great day and remember smiling is contagious and can make an ordinary day become a great one!

The answer to our question is an easy one....not any time soon. We are at a solar minimum which means with fewer magnetic storms or sunspots the viewing in the mid-latitudes will remain almost non-existant. You can still take a trip up to the Arctic Circle and enjoy this beautiful spectacle almost every single night this time of year.

Storm Comes at Us in Pieces Keeping Accumulations Light

We knew another rough period of wintry weather was on the way. The good news is the latest models are showing most of the heavier precipitation staying well south of Lafayette. This means the amount of snow and ice should remain on the lighter side. Todd Weber of Lafayette sent in this picture on his way home and no it was not caused by all the carpoolers. :) Our atmosphere is very dry and with highs only reaching near 30 degrees today this tells me that this will in fact keep most of the ice and snow away. This storm's moisture is having a hard time moving our way and we got this incredible paint brush effect across the sky as a result. The sky holds many clues to what is heading our way and this is another good example.


One other big obstacle this storm will not overcome is the lack of phasing between the northern and southern branch. Last week we talked about this having to happen for us to have a big storm. But instead this phasing will not take place until Wednesday or after this activity is past Indiana. Timing is everything and for snow lover's it is not on our side. We should have plenty of more opportunities coming our way in January and February and when you here me say "phasing is taking place" you can get your shovels out. But this time around I do not see it. I circled the two pieces of energy I am watching that stay distinctly separate. We will get a few snow flurries on Wednesday from that second piece of energy. So this system is coming at us in pieces which will keep the main system farther south and spare us from a major storm. No matter what you hear or have been reading I still see Lafayette ending up with a good 25 inches snow this winter and we will talk more about this on the weather blog this week.


Right now I have Lafayette in the one inch or less category with areas of White County and the far north in the one to two inch range BUT THIS COULD BE PUSHING IT with not much moisture at all to work with. I think an inch or less will do for most areas just be careful heading south toward Indianapolis where they will have a little more moisture and periods of light snow and freezing rain that could cause problems on the roadways. There is a winter weather advisory from Montgomery County southward so allow extra time in the morning on Tuesday. Take a look at all the advisories.


The purple areas show the huge areas of winter weather advisories and the green areas show all the flood warnings and watches. The great news out of all this is our area rivers will not be impacted by this storm with less than .20" over most areas. You can certainly make out the main storm track which stays south of Lafayette. I will not give this storm an official name as a result but may make some sort of compromise. Check back on the blog to see what that may be and of course tune in tonight for more on this storm.

Ready for Another Gorgeous Sunset Before Real January Weather Closes In!

Hello! It is a good thing I am covering all shifts. These maps are going crazy! I did have to add in a chance of patchy freezing drizzle tomorrow morning. Better safe than sorry. Ice amounts will be less than .05", but all ice is bad ice. Things are moving very quickly on the weather map with not one but two powerful jet streams!

Update on Tuesday and Wednesday of next week: Latest storm track trends farther south and east which means our mix of snow and rain may in fact be more snow than rain.

Next WEEKEND: An arctic outbreak which may be preceded by a snowstorm! Highs stuggle into the teens and 20s with lows near zero.

January 11-20: Well below average temperatures with good chances of snow!

January 20-31st: THE BIG THAW HITS AS PACIFIC JET TAKES OVER

Chow for now....but make sure to check out that sunset tonight and the moon and Venus will put on another show. We have moonset at 11:47 p.m. Pictures and more fun stuff on the way. Thanks for your patience AND E-MAILING ME PICTURES and just checking in with me. It gives me tons of energy and you have kept me going non-stop since Wednesday. I feel great thanks to you!!

Happy New Year! We Remember the Blizzard of 1999!

Greg Brown sends us our first weather picture of 2009 and it is a very nice one! We did start out with sunshine before the high cirrus clouds took over. These high-level clouds are telling us we have a very dry atmosphere and with the main storm track remaining well to our north it means we can get ready for some more mild weather and it will stay calm at least for the next couple of days! I took a shot at our altocumuls clouds that signify that a weak front is on the way.


It is great to check in with you. I am doing all the weather shifts through Friday so I will have to make this quick. Don't worry about me, I love this stuff, just like I do blogging with the greatest bloggers on earth! I wanted to make sure our morning meteorologist Stefanie Davis could go cheer her brother on in the Orange Bowl today. He plays for the University of Cincinnati football team. I am very happy for her and her family. Go Bearcats! Stefanie should be enjoying those 70s that is for sure and she will be back on Monday and says hi to everybody.

I am amazed at our weather pattern. This is January, our snowiest and coldest month of the year and our first weathermaker of the new year will likely be in the form of rain. This speaks volumes. It looks like mainly light rain Saturday night into Sunday with less than a quarter inch expected which is great news for the rivers!

Next week this all changes as our zonal jet stream amplifies. We have a doozy of a storm that could bring snow to start and then plenty of rain but I can tell you the models are not agreeing on the storm track. If it stays all snow I can tell you we will have 6 or more inches but the European is bringing its track right up close to Tippecanoe County which tells me we could have a changeover to rain. I think the big concern is that it will be a significant storm which could cause flooding once again on the Wabash by later next week. I will start posting the different storm tracks here on the blog so you have an appreciation of what meteorologists look at to try to determine if it is going to be rain or snow. Right now based on what I am seeing this week, I am more in favor of a change-over to mainly rain with our chances of real winter and snow holding off until next weekend. I am working on your January outlook that looks bizarre! Different year and same wild Indiana weather. You can always count on it!

Lafayette's Biggest Snowstorms:

1) December 19, 1929 20.5"

2) February 13, 2007 17.0"

3) December 20, 1973 17.0"

4) January 1-2, 1999 16.0"


Now speaking of wild it is New Year's of course which is a reminder of the big blizzard that basically shut the Lafayette area down for about 3 days back in 1999. Here is where it ranked on the all-time list. I will find you some more tidbits and post them here for you this evening and tomorrow we will look at that January outlook and the big battle about to take place this month! Happy New Year! I want to thank my wife and Niccole Caan for the great brunch they put together today! The food was outstanding. I will try to share a picture and recipe!

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