Sunday, September 11, 2011

Flying the Red, White, Blue in plenty of sunshine

Sunday, September 11, 2011

We can fly the red, white and blue with pride today in plenty of sunshine. There will still be a few isolated showers and thunderstorms on your only live doppler radar but the big story will be the hot weather once again and it will be more humid with highs back up to near 90 for inland areas and the middle 80s beaches. The question is will the added humidity pop any storms. Let's look at the meteorological X's and O's.

Notice the O's represent two weather systems or nature's pass rush that is trying to get to us during the big game. But the X is our offensive line which looks like it should hold up well since we still have enough dry air in place in the middle and upper-levels and both systems do not have much moisture to bully our guards over. But we have to be careful of a turnover in the atmosphere that can happen in a hurry when a seabreeze moves onshore like we will see during the afternoon. This is the only reason I am keeping in a low chance of rain during the game. So let's check it out!

I am going for more of a roar from the Jags and crowd than nature! Highs will reach 90 during the game. But in the stands with the humidity and in the sunshine it will feel like over 100 degrees. Take advantage of reduced prices on water at the stadium since the forecast does call for 90 or above which meets the threshold. I wish I could give us a 100% of no rain but for now I am just holding the football with two hands and guarding against the turnover so I kept in a low 20% chance of a pop up shower or thunderstorm.

If something does pop I do not see a repeat of last year's two hour lightning storm. In fact, make sure you bring the hats and sunscreen. If I was going to the game I would not be taking the poncho, although my Mom always takes one for good luck since we know how Florida weather can be.

We had a glorious sunrise over the stadium this morning that bodes well for the forecast today. Now what do the models have on timing if anything does pop. Well here is the latest.

You see a few isolated showers that will try to move in with a seabreeze by early afternoon combining forces with an old dying frontal boundary with that slim chance of rain over the stadium after 2 p.m. The deeper moisture needed in the atmosphere that fuels thunderstorms looks to stay well southeast of Everbank Field.  You can see that below.

The bottom line is the main player to watch on the weather field that will bring us our best chance of rain is the trough of low pressure moving in from the west but it will not arrive until later this evening and Monday. But again coverage does not look all that great. I would say 30% or less of us see rain. 

Most of the deeper moisture has in essence been gobbled up by a tropical parade of storms over the past couple weeks. It is ashame we have had very little of this rain and it does concern me about a worsening drought and smoky conditions returning once again this week. Annual rainfall from the tropics is huge for us.

Where is the rain? Here is the answer to last night's PRANG FACT I used at 11 p.m. last night which really sums it up. Lee and its remnants have dropped enough rain to fill up Everbank Stadium 70,000 times. That is right! The United States has seen 45 trillion gallons of water unleashed by nature just by Lee. I feel like it has been a forgotten storm I think folks in the Northeast will never forget it and Lee and Irene I think will both have their names retired with the likes of Dora and Andrew. Here at home we will be lucky to see more than a few drops over the next couple days and if you do get some rain you are one of the lucky ones. God bless you and America! Have a wonderful day!

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