Hottest weekend since September with record-breaking weather!

Record-breaking hot weather is on the way and not just for today. We could at least tie or break all-time record highs through Monday. A strong high pressure in all levels of the atmosphere will be slow to move. The large-scale sinking of the air will heat us up to 90 today and lower 90s by Monday. Humidity will also be on the increase. Make sure to hydrate and wear plenty of sunscreen as the UV index will be extreme. If you are looking for cooler relief head to the beaches where a seabreeze should work in by early this afternoon keeping highs closer to the lower 80s.

There will be a slight chance of a thunderstorm this afternoon mainly for southeast Georgia near Waycross and Brunswick and northward. If a storm does pop it could be strong with wind and hail as the main threats. This is a ring of fire pattern and I will check back with you here on the blog later this morning to talk more about it and why most of us will not see rain until Tuesday.

This nice weather weekend could not come at a  better time...check out the tons of events going on around the area! Get out and enjoy but remember the sunscreen!

Northeast Florida Ride for Kids


Florida State College- North Campus

8 a.m.
Ride for Kids benefits Pediatric Brain Tumor Foundation and includes a motorcycle ride, light lunch, Celebraton of Life program and prize drawings.
http://pbtfus.org/rideforkids/events/2011/northeastflorida.html




2nd Annual Don's FRIENDS 5K Run/Walk
St. Augustine Beach Pier
Run/walk at 8:30 a.m., paddleboard race at 1 p.m.
Includes a new event-Stand UP Paddleboard Race, as well as vendors and live entertainment. See website for details.
http://www.donsfriend.com/dons_run.html


Soldier Ride Jacksonville
Wounded Warrior Project Headquarters, 4899 Belfort Rd
7 a.m. registration, 8 a.m. ride begins
Cycling event for the Wounded Warrior Project. Ends with community picnic.
http://www.kintera.org/faf/home/default.asp?ievent=447720




2nd Annual Setting the Pace for Peace Domestic Violence Awareness Walk
Ed Austin Regional Park, 11751 McCormick Rd.
9-11:30 a.m.
Hosted by Hubbard House. Will include family fun zone, music and more.
http://hubbardhouse.org/




Walk for MS: Orange Park
Orange Park Kennel Club
Festivities begin at 9 a.m., walk at 10 a.m.
Benefit for the National Multiple Sclerosis Society, North Florida Chapter
http://events.jacksonville.com/orange-park-fl/events/show/170786725-walk-ms-orange-park
http://www.nationalmssociety.org/walkMapRegion.aspx



Walk to Cure Diabetes
Jacksonville Fairgrounds
Registration 8 a.m., Walk 9 a.m.
Benefit for Juvenile Diabetes Research Foundation International
http://www.jdrfnorthflorida.org/walk.php


Team Hope Walk for Huntington's Disease
Jacksonville Landing
Registration 1 p.m., Walk 2 p.m.
http://facebook.com/HDSANorthFL




Pawfessionals Pet-Friendly Social
Confederate Dog Park
1-3 p.m.
http://www.facebook.com/event.php?eid=199649250069676




Friends of James Beard Foundation Benefit Dinner
One Ocean Resort Hotel and Spa
6 p.m.
Hosted by Chefs Ted Peters and Nancy Slatsky. Includes chef participant from Bistro Aix, Matthew's and Orsay.
http://www.jamesbeard.org/index.php?q=events_fojbb_atlanticbeach_040911



David Nail with Walker Hayes
Mavericks Rock N' Honky Tonk Concert Hall
Doors open at 6 p.m., concerts usually start around 8 p.m.
http://www.mavericksatthelanding.com/



5th Annual Comedy for Critters Show
Hotel Indigo, 9840 Tapestry Park Cir.
Jacksonville Improv Troupe Hosts Comedy Show to Benefit ASPCA and JHS
Includes silent auction at 7 p.m. Improv show starts at 8 p.m.
http://media.causes.com/1039461

LIVE WEATHER BLOG

Picture of gust front as it moved through St. Johns, Florida. Wind speeds reach 40 mph in this area but many folks saw 60 mph wind gusts or higher with hundreds of trees down across the First Coast. Here was the scene in Keystone Heights below. This is a good example of why straight-line wind damage can be just as dangerous and do as much damage as a tornado. Everybody is safe and sound so that is the great news!

8:02 a.m. No more warnings across the First Coast, but we do have numerous problems on area roadways with trees reported down on Baymeadows road and a few reports of power lines down.

7:59 a.m. Significant Weather Advisory issued for Flagler County for 45-55 mph wind gusts

7:52 a.m. Tornado warning has been cancelled for St. Johns County...strongest storm with damaging wind now located over Crescent Beach....

7:48 a.m. Worst storm near St. Augustine still showing rotation but no confirmation that it has reached the ground as a tornado. Tornado warning continues until 8:15 a.m. for Central St. Johns County...get to your safe spots immediately

7:46 a.m. Worst part of the storm now at St. Augustine, just south of Bridge of Lions

7:44 a.m. Severe thunderstorm warning continues for Flagler and Putnam Counties with a strong storm near Hastings

7:42 a.m. Tornado warning continues for Central St. Johns County until 8:15 a.m. with worst part of the storm heading for St. Augustine and St. Augustine Beach by 8:00 a.m. No tornado confirmation but wind gusts near 60 mph likely.

7:39 a.m. Southern St. Johns County near 206 another rotating storm is now showing up on Live Doppler Radar....these areas could also see damaging wind gusts.

7:38 a.m. Most dangerous part of storm that prompted tornado warning now southeast of World Golf Village moving east at 50 mph.

7:35 a.m. No confirmation of Tornado as of yet but dangerous storm capable of producing tornado...it is radar indicated at this time which means circulation is at cloud level and can reach the ground in an instant...please get to your safe spot....Highway 16 and Interstate 95 are the areas of most concern right now and this will reach Anastasia shores and St. Augustine by 7:55 a.m.

7:33 a.m. Live Doppler radar continues to show rotating storm just east of Molasses Junction to the Outlet Mall in St. Johns County

7:30 a.m. There is a bow echo near the World Golf Village...this will likely produce 60 mph wind gusts...sometimes bow echoes can put down brief isolated tornadoes...no tornadoes have been reported as of yet but in this situation you have to  issue a tornado warning due to some rotation in cell that can reach the ground as a tornado

7:29 a.m. Live Doppler radar 2 minute advantage has possible tornado that will arrive in St. Augustine by 7:45 a.m. Seek shelter immediately

7:27 a.m. TORNADO WARNING issued for St. Johns County 15 miles west of St. Augustine for a thunderstorm showing some rotation and it is moving east at 55 mph

(Make sure to hit refresh or F5 on your browser to get the minute by  minute updates on the storms moving through here on the Live Weather Blog)

7:24 a.m. Half-inch hail and ponding of water on many roads...40 mph wind gusts reported in Mandarin and Orange Park

7:23 a.m. Wind gusts of 40 mph reported in St. Johns with heavy rain and lightning....Live Doppler radar continues to stay ahead of radar

7:22 a.m. 60 mph wind gust verified in Arlington...8,000 plus power outages near airport and northside

7:19 a.m. Powerlines down near Commonwealth Avenue as some isolated wind gusts of 60 mph are taking place across the area...

7:17 a.m. Power outages in Dinsmore

7:15 a.m. Thunderstorms have produced pea size hail and 40 mph wind gusts in Middleburg and Arlington

7:10 a.m. Severe thunderstorm warning for Clay, Putnam, Duval and St. Johns County until 8 a.m. Since there is a tornado watch with storms moving through this makes sense but this line moving through so far has had a history of producing wind gusts of 40 mph with lightning and heavy downpours. No local damage reports have been received in around the Jacksonville area so far.

7:10 a.m. Live Doppler radar shows heaviest storms now moving across St. Johns River. Storm track has these storms arriving at the beach by 7:40 a.m. Main threat 40 mph gusts and lightning.

7:06 a.m. Live Doppler radar continues to show weakening line of storms moving through
7:04 a.m. Wind damage has been confirmed in Waycross, Georgia....powerlines and trees down with quarter size hail but this was from two hours ago....the storms moving through our area are weakening....the main threats at this time will be 40 mph wind gusts, lightning, and heavy downpours.

7:02 a.m. Severe thunderstorm warning for Alachua, Bradford, Clay, Marion and Putnam counties until 7:30 p.m.

7:00 a.m. All severe weather warnings have been allowed to expire on First Coast but significant weather advisories likely to be issued with 40-50 mph wind gusts, lightning, and heavy rain moving through.

6:59 a.m. Pea size haill reported in Waldo...

6:33 a.m....A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM EDT
FOR DUVAL...EXTREME NORTHERN ST. JOHNS...SOUTHERN NASSAU...SOUTHERN
CHARLTON AND EASTERN BAKER COUNTIES...AT 633 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS AND FIRST COAST NEWS WEATHER TEAM CONTINUED TO TRACK A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM OCEANWAY TO JACKSONVILLE HEIGHTS...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF JACKSONVILLE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT TO 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF LAKESIDE...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
RIVERSIDE...ORTEGA...DOWNTOWN JACKSONVILLE...TALLYRAND...SAN MARCO...ARLINGTON...FORT CAROLINE...TALBOT ISLAND...LITTLE TALBOT ISLAND...
UNF...MAYPORT...SAN PABLO...NEPTUNE BEACH...JACKSONVILLE BEACH AND
PONTE VEDRA BEACH.
6:12 a.m. We continue watching a line of showers and thunderstorms moving at 55 mph to the east. Right now the main threat continues to be hail and damaging wind. These storms will be in downtown Jacksonville by 7 a.m.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM EDT TUESDAY MORNING
FOR NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

5:07 a.m. Line of showers and thunderstorms with wind and hail quickly moving in. Georgia will be the first to be impacted.

Severe threat continues but tornado threat decreasing for First Coast

Monday evening April 4, 2011

We have had an amazing 781 storm reports in the last 2 days. The good news is only 14 tornadoes thus far although the straight line wind damage can be in some cases worse than tornadoes. So even though the headline tonight is optimistic we all still need to be on guard for damaging wind gusts on Tuesday morning. Most of the tornadoes today occurred with daytime heating and tonight tornado chances have gone down to less than 2% based on the latest from the Storm Prediction Center. This number is likely to stay low as a line of storms moves our way. Now if this line was coming through tomorrow afternoon I would be more concerned but as of now it is moving too fast and most of the good dynamics with this system are lifting. Areas from North Georgia into the Carolinas have the most instability on Tuesday morning and then Central and Southern Florida during the afternoon. Yes, here comes the famous split that we often see here in North Florida and South Georiga. But, let's not get complacent. There is about a 15% chance of wind damage within 25 miles of a point from Lake City to Folkston to Saint Simons Island. Then I would lower it to 10% south of that line for the rest of the First Coast viewing area. Here is the timing based on the latest RPM model run.

This model is not doing a great job showing the strongest storms tonight lifting into North Georgia and the Carolinas. The timing looks a bit slow as well. Here is a look at when most of us can see the welcome rain and thunderstorms.

Here we are at 11 a.m. Tuesday and what we will watch for is some bowing segment along our squall line and these areas could bring us our damaging wind gusts. Right now I see most of us in the 40 to 50 mph range on wind gusts with only isolated areas near 60 mph. One thing is for sure we will all have our eyes glued to our only Live Doppler radar. Our team is ready. So recapping everything here are the main threat levels one more time.

The hail threat may need to be increased a bit but for now this should do. Let's keep it this way and get some nice heavy downpours. The latest models are still showing a good .50" to 1" of rain and when I see you tomorrow evening I look forward to bringing you the nice beneficial rain totals with hopefully very few severe weather reports. God bless and be safe! Remember some of these storms will move at over 50 mph and may come sooner than later.

Back to school in summer weather! Stormy late tonight

Monday, April 4, 2011

What a Spring break it was this past week. You see Lauren and I getting ready to go see the fireworks at the Magic Kingdom. She truly is a princess! My family and I enjoyed a wonderful trip to Disney World and we got in all the rides despite record amounts of rain in Central Florida. It felt like we were in a tropical rain forest at times. But the weather cleared just long enough so we could get in all the rides! I would not let it rain on our biggest day that is for sure! I enjoyed the Pirates of the Caribbean ride especially when we went through the outflow boundary out ahead of the thunderstorm before we dropped. What I noticed is there in fact is a lot of weather intertwined in many of the Disney rides if you look close enough. This is the way it should be. Weather plays a big role in all of our lives. The worst ride was the Mission Space ride at Epcot where they have you in a simulator and you blast off from earth and go to Mars. I was rudely introduced to G forces that took my breath and almost my lunch away. It looks like my plan of being a space meteorologist for private missions to space is put on hold for now....lol. I have even more respect for astronauts after that ride. The landscaping also caught my attention at Epcot. When I was younger I never paid attention to such things. But now that I am older I could not get enough of learning about the different plants that actually told a story about the culture of each country we visited. I cannot wait to get back. I hope you had a great spring break and while it was not the best of weather weeks here at home I think you can agree that our parched lawns and gardens are much happier.

Check out the trees all tassled on this sunny side up back to school morning! These tassles will be blowing in a summer wind today with some gusts making it over 30 mph. I made sure the girls had the shorts out for school. Temperatures could rocket up to near record levels in the upper 80s out ahead of the season's strongest Spring storm. Our record high for today is 90 set back in 1974 and we will be close. Let's take a look at where this morning's convection is taking place by using our free weather app that now uses your only live doppler radar data.

Yes, it is a stormy morning in Texas and Arkansas. This is the front that has now brought over 300 damaging storm reports across the country including baseball size hail near Dubuque and damaging wind gusts of 80 mph in Kansas. The Rockies which played baseball in the 80s on Saturday had a game postponed due to snow yesterday! Wind damage scooted all the way across Indiana with damage reported in Williamsport but no tornadoes! There was no surface low pressure to back the winds and this helped keep the wind blowing in the same direction through much of the atmosphere keeping us from having an outbreak of tornadoes. Now a low pressure is expected to develop later today here in the deep south so the tornado threat will start to increase significantly. I expect a QLCS to develop which is a quasi linear convective system or squall line of storms known to produce mainly straight line wind damage but it can also produce isolated tornadoes in its meso-vortices or areas of spin that naturally occur as the cooler outflow boundaries are impacted by the surface friction of the earth. Our main threat remains wind damage here at home but a brief isolated tornado cannot be ruled out since we are going to be located in the front right entrance region of a powerful jet stream.

Timing will be tricky. We could see this QLCS race out ahead of the main front late tonight and reach portions of our viewing area between 3 a.m. and 7 a.m. The Storm Prediction Center has placed us in a slight risk for severe weather. Most of my wind parameters have wind gusts of 50-60 mph with the main line that comes through. Once the storms clear by early afternoon on Tuesday temperatures will only be in the 60s. I will keep watching this for you but the latest for now is that strong storms are still in the forecast late tonight and Tuesday morning. The rest of the week looks terrific including the Sun's home opener. I will head into work to grab a few updated model runs for you here on my day off. Check back this evening for another update.

Last but not least a big thank you to the Presbyterian Riverside Scouts. They had a lot of fun on yesterday's station tour and were so happy with the weather they brought all of us Thank you Berry Munch Girl Scout cookies. I had never had them before and can tell you they are a must try! Dan, Deanna, and I went through a whole box in a blink of an eye and I had to hide the rest from Dan...lol. We went over severe weather safety and these scouts will always remember when the thunder roars outdoors head indoors! We will need to remember this by later tonight. This was the first tour I can remember that had so much fun they stayed for both of our evening shows! They were awesome and to be able to inspire these young smart kids is what makes my job all worth it. Just watch, one of these girls in the picture above will be on television some day, as a meteorologist. I better run, literally! I am going to run 6 miles, then head to First Coast News to get everything ready  for Live Doppler Day on Tuesday. Take care, stay safe and stay tuned. Blog update coming your way tonight! Talk to you soon.

Blue Skies for the Blues Fest but keep your eyes to the sky by early Tuesday!

Sunday, April 3, 2011

Good Sunday morning! The Sunday morning show was a blast at 7 a.m. I think they should stream the whole show live including what happens during commercials.  I got in another dance lesson from anchor Len Kease. We had a little Snoop Dogg playing and yes I am finally learning to loosen up the shoulders. Today we will be dancing in the streets out at the Blues Fest with plenty of blue skies. You see the breakdown on temperatures at Jacksonville Beach. A sea breeze will move in this afternoon so the warmest part of the day will be early afternoon with highs in the middle 70s. Inland locations will still have no problem making it into the lower 80s. You can also fire up the boat with outstanding conditions. A tame east wind will be at 10 to 15 knots and seas only 2-3 ft. The surf will build from 1-2 feet. What most folks do not realize is that April is actually our sunniest month of the year here in Jacksonville so nature is coming through for us right on cue. We receive 73% of our possible sunshine this time of year. May is in second place with 70% of possible sunshine. Our cloudiest months are December and January. But it is not just our sunny season, April is also a month we have to keep our guard up because it is still technically the peak of our tornado season at least for the beginning of the month. Then our numbers go way down. Here is a graph showing numbers.

By mid-April we transition into waterspout season that can turn into tornadoes as they come ashore and they tornadoes that do form over our warmer summer months are usually short-lived and weak. So let's all get through this first week of April so we can enjoy the rest of the month which does look like it will bring plenty of vintage sunshine.

Here is when we will be in the storm zone. It still looks like late Monday night into Tuesday morning. This RPM model from 5 a.m. Sunday morning holds the main line off from moving through downtown Jacksonville by noon. I think it may be slow especially with the fast flow across the country. Our main threat here at home will be damaging wind gusts. You will have most of your tornadoes with this weather system here in the South taking place in northern portions of Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee and Georgia. To my friends in Indiana, go Butler, but please make sure to have your weather radios turned on before falling asleep tonight. This is the anniversary of the Super Outbreak that hit back on April 3-4, 1974. So you know what can happen. Here is a picture from the Monticello courthouse that was destroyed.

Am I expecting a repeat. Absolutely not. But I am not ruling out isolated tornadoes moving in from Illinois and wailing sirens by late tonight. Be careful. Know where your safe spot is and have a plan of action. Yes, I still watch out for you and tell Matt Painter he made a smart decision on staying at Purdue. Now it is your turn to be smart. These are areas that will be much closer to the main lift and jet stream causing this severe weather outbreak. What is scary is that many of the tornadoes will likely occur at night. So I hope and pray folks in those areas have weather radios so they can stay up to date with the latest. Here at home we could even see this line race through in the wee hours of Tuesday but it would likely be a gusty line with 60 mph wind gusts. Even though the highest areas of shear and instability remain north of the First Coast this system is so strong we will have to watch it carefully. The good news is the bulls eye this time around is not on us here in Florida. But with that said some areas of Florida could still see damaging storms and we will continue to keep you updated with your only Live Doppler Radar. So today's lesson is we will all keep our guard up.

Our blog question of the day is about the drought. Despite all the rain are we still in a drought? The short answer is yes. We did go down one level of drought from extreme to severe but it is still a big issue as we head through the Spring. Notice we had a solid 1-2 inches of rain to finish March with even 3 " in St. Marys, Georgia but still ended up about an inch and a half below average. We have a slight surplus for the year after being way ahead to start the year.

The long-range models for April are showing the driest weather in Texas and not over us so that is an improvement. Don't get too excited. I am still expecting temperatures once again above average by 1-2 degrees and rainfall to once again fall about 1-2 inches shy of normal. The overall global pattern is working in our favor for increased rainfall by our rainy season so we do have hope especially with a weakening La Nina. I will have more on this here on the blog in the coming weeks. The system swinging through early this week will be a quick-mover so as a result I am expecting rain amounts closer to a half-inch or less. Enough of this rain talk, go out and enjoy the nice sunny Sunday fun day. I am heading to church and will have an update for you tonight at 6, 6:30, and 11 p.m. and of course check back with you here on the blog. Take care.

Florida's most tornadic week in 3 years briefly turns tame

Saturday, April 2, 2011

This picture from the National Weather Service near Tampa sums up Florida's roughest weather week outside of tropical storm Faye since March of 2008. On March 7, 2008 we had about two dozen tornadoes in Florida located mainly across the First Coast including southeast Georgia. Unfortunately there were two fatalities in Lake City. This time around the brunt of the severe weather hit Central Florida where there was more instability. You see this complex of apartments was turned into what looks like a damaged doll house by nature. Notice a few trees around the worst of the damage are standing unscathed which happens many times during tornadoes around their wind vortices. Wind estimates place this tornado as an EF 1 with wind speeds near 100 mph. It was one of a staggering 9 tornadoes reported across the Florida peninsula this week based on the latest data. In all Florida ended up with 117 storm reports. This included 97 wind reports with wind gusts of 58 mph or higher, 11 hail reports nickel-sized or bigger, and the 9 tornadoes. To show you the magnitude of the storm, Tampa and southwest Florida known as Florida's tornado alley see about 6 to 8 tornadoes per year and they saw that in only two day this week.

Here in the Jacksonville and St. Augustine area we are counting our blessings with only minor and isolated damage in St. Johns County as wind gusts near 61 mph hit areas from highway 207 and Interstate 95 eastward to the beach. There were some trees down and about 250 power outages in all but the good news is everybody is safe and sound. We had a few pea sized hailstones that fell here in downtown Jacksonville that I stored away in our freezer. Yes, if you work at First Coast news please do not use this as ice in your drinks. Use the ice in the ice tray please!

Yes, your only live radar did a great job being the first to show the storms that quickly intensified near St. Augustine. Today your only radar without delay will make your day! In the wake of this wild weather today looks terrific with partly to mostly sunny skies with highs near 80. The good news is 80 degree weather should go all the way to the beach with a west wind holding back those cooler sea breezes at 10 to 20 mph. The Taste of St. Augustine looks delectable in more than one way!

Boaters can loosen those big knots on the boats. There will be a light inland chop and no advisories. It was also a rough boating week so we have certainly earned this smooth sailing weather. Seas will only be at 2 to 4 feet with the four footers located well offshore. If you are heading to the Clay County Fair or the Blues at the Beach the blue skies will be a perfect compliment! This past week was like an April Fool's joke that would not go away but nature finally gets it right and here is why.

You can thank high pressure in control for the nice sunny change and it is good to see our old friend which is our most common weather maker in Florida throughout the year coming home for at least a couple days. But it is April and the pattern is moving fast so this is just a quick visit. Check out the howling jet stream across the country.

This is what I call a highly amplified progressive pattern. Here in Florida the peak of our tornado season is February and March but it continues into at least the first part of April. Many times we have to watch these strong polar jet streams carefully. They tend to energize our thunderstorms and can turn them into super cells or mesocyclones which we saw this past week in a hurry. These super cells are known to produce large hail, damaging wind and tornadoes. The timing at this point looks like it will hold off until after the weekend for us here at home. This storm system will be so cranked up we could at least tie a record high of 90 on Monday in its warm sector. You see the jet stream starts igniting the atmosphere as soon as late Sunday. The yellow shaded areas can expect an outbreak of severe weather.

We will have to keep our eyes to the sky. Our latest weather team model runs are showing this being easily the biggest severe weather outbreak of Spring for the USA. It will impact at least 150 million people across no fewer than 20 states. It will be a quick-moving system and will impact us here on the First Coast Monday night into Tuesday so make sure to stay tuned and I will have numerous updates for you on the tube and here on the web. See you soon and enjoy the nice weather while you can. I will also post the big rains from this past week and have a drought update for you!

Tropical breezes blow in severe weather threat

Sunday, March 27, 2011

You can almost smell the rain in the air. Yes, this morning we woke up with most areas in the lower to middle 60s and with the warm tropical breezes it even felt a bit humid. We have been more like the Sahara Desert here over the last several weeks so it was a noticeable change. You combine the added moisture content of the atmosphere along with a strong cold front to our north and it should be enough to fire up at least a few showers and thunderstorms across the northern tier of our area this afternoon and evening. We will have to keep our eyes to the sky because the Storm Prediction Center still has areas from the Georgia-Florida border northward in a slight risk for severe weather. You see the graph I made shows the main threats being lightning and wind. Let's take a look at why.

It's back! The sub-tropical jet stream is helping to juice up our atmosphere and we can trace this powerhouse jet all the way back to the Pacific Ocean. So not only will we have Gulf moisture to work with but Pacific moisture. These tropical winds are not only providing ample moisture but increasing the wind shear over our area with hurricane force wind speeds at 30,000 feet over us. This energy can sometimes be transferred down to the ground in the form of damaging winds and even isolated tornadoes. Now timing is everything and right now here is the latest.

One thing to note is that most of the thunderstorm activity will stay north of Jacksonville and look to the west because I think that is where most of the storms will be moving from. So if you have big Sunday plans today, I would not cancel them. It still looks great if you are going to the UNF or JU baseball game. Even in southeast Georgia, the storms should be widely scattered and hold off until late afternoon. So just stay alert to changing weather conditions and remember if you are out and about you can follow your only Live Doppler Radar with our free weather app, at firstcoastnews.com, and on television. Yes, we have extended the 2 minute advantage to all media platforms to keep you and your family safe. I will also send out text alerts as needed.

This front has several waves of low pressure rippling along it and is parallel to the strong jet stream I showed you. So as a result it will be slow-moving and only 30% of us should see rain today. Georgia will have the best chances of strong storms and rain. Tonight with increased humidity I cannot rule out a thunderstorm or two for Florida. You see our RPM model shows some bright reflectivity moving toward downtown Jacksonville after 9 p.m. But for most of the day it looks great and enjoy our nice warm highs in the middle to upper 80s. You see Monica Landeros has already sent in a very nice shot of the Intracoastal Waterway at Vilano Beach to verify the forecast. Thanks Monica!

If  you are boating, there will be a moderate inland chop developing this afternoon with a southwest wind at 15-20 knots. Out over the ocean it does not look bad at all with seas of 2 feet near shore to 4 feet well offshore. Have a great day and yes everything is still on track for all of us getting in on the rain next week, especially Monday, Wednesday and Thursday. Next weekend looks drier based on the latest European model run. Temperatures will remain warm and primarily be in the 70s throughout next week. I look forward to seeing you tonight and we will zoom in on any storms that do form. I will also post your 10 day forecast on here for you with this busy pattern ahead make sure to check back!