No Frightful Weather but Winter Blows Back in with a Vengeance!

December 27, 2011

Frightful weather arrives with a flurry or 2! That was the headline in last year's local newspaper. One year later I am outside running in my shorts. I want to thank my daughter Lauren for the great picture she took. My legs are more sore from playing our new Smurfs Dance Party game Santa brought her for the Wii. Maybe it will make me stronger for the National Breast Cancer Marathon which is now only 47 days away and I will finally be the great dancer I could have always have been!  I cannot wait! Before I dance more to Who Let the Smurfs Out I wanted to make sure you knew no severe weather is coming our way! I talked about at least the potential over the holiday weekend.

Have no fear the CAPE is here! This stands for Convective Available Potential Energy. In other words, it is the amount of energy the atmosphere has to work with to form thunderstorms. The higher the number the better the chance of not only boom booms but severe weather. Notice the green shading I usually like to see over us when I forecast thunder is just not happening. What I am more impressed with is the southwest wind over us at 36,000 feet howling at 135 mph! This jet could still whip up a few strong storms over the Carolinas today, but not here. What it will do is bring us a windy late afternoon and evening with gusts of 30 to 40 mph possible. Please get here recycling man....hurry!!! Make sure the small dogs are leashed and the babies secure because this wind will blow with gusto!

Our next concern will be the pets and plants. Notice my Dad's flourishing garden in Mandarin that gave all the Christmas lights some competition. Yes, if you ever get lost going to the Prangleys' house just look for the house with all the flowers. His green thumb was handed down from his Dad and I am hoping like the dancing thing that I am a late bloomer and my garden eventually looks at least half this good! This was our ninth day in a row above normal today and we have not had a freeze so far in December which is very unusual. The last December to have no freezes was way back in 1994. So will we keep the freeze-less streak alive?

Yes! We have high pressure building in which usually does the deed this time of year but it is location, location, location. This high pressure originates from the Pacific Ocean not a from the Northwest Territories. Some models also show a few clouds moving in late Wednesday night and again Thursday night which would also keep us from seeing ideal radiational cooling. This high pressure is not the typical December fair weather freezer, but we should still make sure our pets have a warm spot along with bringing in the sensitive plants.

Look for frosty conditions away from the river and ocean for Thursday and Friday mornings with lows in the middle 30s at the airport and for places like Mandarin and close to the river and ocean, the upper 30s and lower 40s seem more reasonable. Our warm Spring honeymoon is coming to an end as we will have below average temperatures on Wednesday reaching only near 60! To me this still feels great outside after going through winter's in Vermont and Minnesota. I am still sure your out of town guests from the North will not mind either!

  

Now the question on everybody's mind is how is our last weekend of 2011 looking? I am giving it my seal of approval! It looks outstanding with temperatures back in the 70s and I still like my warmer middle 70s to near 80 by New Year's Day. But this is not an easy forecast as we head into 2012. The European Model has gone wild! You see the big blue over the southeast next week, while the other model is showing mainly warm oranges taking up much of the country. The European has highs here only in the 30s with flurries all the way to North Florida and South Georgia by next Tuesday. The other models like us cooling down to more seasonable levels with lows in the 30s and highs in the 60s.

Now which one is right? As much as this hurts to say....the European is out to lunch I think is still on Christmas break. There are no teleconnections to support this. The North Atlantic pressures remain low helping to trap the Arctic air over the polar bears and the Pacific Northwest also is showing no signs of strong high pressure building in. This would not allow a repeat of last year to form in our viewing area like last year, not even close. But I will keep you updated and we at least have memories. Check out last year! You see there was snow place like home with the surreal scene full of flakes and sago palms!

Okay now I am still all fired up about one of the maps still showing snow over us next week, even if it is a snow dream. I will be back soon to verify snow is not coming and we will also have an update on winter's return. Have a great evening! Back to the fam and dancing! Take care and don't blow away!