April 20, 2011
This summer in April pattern would not be complete without a few sea breeze thunderstorms. How about this! We have building cumulus towers her downtown and looking to the southwest these are firing up a few badly needed rain showers and even some thundershowers! I am not expecting severe weather but you can count on a few wind gusts to 35 mph, brief heavy downpours, and lightning. Some areas could see more rain in an hour than they have seen all month long. Yes, strange objects are falling from the sky in the form of rain drops. Here is what your only live doppler radar looks like just to show some kind of proof.
There is also another shower near Callahan. Keep in mind this activity will quickly move west as the southeast sea breeze continues to push inland. There may even be a strong storm on the west coast of Florida. That will be fun to track on the news tonight. Speaking of rain we do have another rare sight on the weather maps and that is a frontal boundary moving southward with more rain. Now do not get too excited it still looks like most of us stay dry on Thursday but at least a few more of us will see at least scattered showers and thunderstorms. The farther north you go the better chance of rain. This front will quickly lift north Friday allowing high pressure to build in for our Easter weekend. This should keep us warmer than normal and dry!
What is interesting is we are tracking an area of low pressure near Puerto Rico and while I am not expecting it to be a named system this could bring some needed rain to the Bahamas and south Florida and even bring us a few rain showers next week. That should be fun to watch! In fact the overall pattern looks a lot more fun for meteorologists here in Florida and gardeners too. A signicant front arrives next Friday with maybe some heavy duty rain and the latest long-range models for late April into May has a pattern change across the country which would increase our rain chances significantly.
Make sure to stay tuned! Yesterday on the blog we talked about the historic severe weather taking place across the country and I did find a correlation between significant tornado years and an increased risk of tropical cyclones hitting the United States. At this point I am sticking by my forecast of 16 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. This compares to the normals of 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes. The tornadoes are a sign that the La Nina is still alive and kicking. These below average surface temperatures in the Pacific usually bring a higher than average number of storms. Another reason for my robust forecast is the sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic are still at record levels, the Gulf of Mexico is much warmer than last year and the barrage of stormy weather over the Midwest and East with lower pressures than average can many times cause unwanted tropical systems to move toward the United States.
Notice the graphic above. This year could be a lot like 2008 when we had similar conditions. That was the year Tropical Storm Fay played havoc with our weather here in Florida and Jacksonville was swamped with flooding. There were 16 named storms, including 8 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. Seven tropical systems hit the United States, including Fay in Florida. So yes, I hope we can somehow get really, really lucky like last year but the odds certainly are against us. Hurricane season is only 41 days away and it is never too soon to start preparing.
I will talk about more strange objects in the sky here on the blog tomorrow. Yes! The meteor shower is coming and will peak Friday night. I also will have an update on our pattern change and we will talk more tropics. Chief Meteorologist Tim Deegan is at the Hurricane Conference and I will have a few tidbits to pass along to you here on the weather blog.
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