Quiet start to our weekend could bring a rude awakening Sunday morning

Saturday, March 5, 2011

Saturday, March 5, 2011 4 p.m.

What a great start to our weekend with highs reaching 77 as forecasted and it was nice to see increasing sunshine during the afternoon. Our nice newly  painted satellite truck was gleaming in the parking lot and able to show off its new colors. But it is meteorological Spring and we are used to weather changes fast and furiously. You see that fair weather cloud well they can grow into strong thunderstorms in as little as 20 minutes this time of year! Tonight I think we do not have to worry about that but we will have balmy breezes with lows in the lower 60s with thickening clouds. Early Sunday morning a line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to race our way. There could be an isolated strong storm with the main threat being damaging wind gusts.
Even though the Storm Prediction Center has not put us in a severe weather risk area we will have to watch it closely. We have high wind shear values over our area. The actual severe weather risk is close to 10%. This is the potential for isolated damaging wind gusts of 58 mph or greater impacting your back yard. The main inhibiting factor keeping our severe chances low at this time will be the instability that fuels Spring storms. Since the line of storms is coming sooner rather than later the atmosphere will be more conducive to producing wind gusts near 40 to 45 mph. But watch out if the line of storms holds off until the afternoon. Our severe chances would go way up. Keep checking back with us with your one and only Live Doppler radar on-line and on the tube. It is a valuable tool on days with developing thunderstorms.

The good news is it will not be an all day rain on Sunday and we should clear out in the afternoon in time for the 5K Colon Awareness run and walk at Jacksonville Beach. This great event starts at 3 p.m. Highs will be in the middle 70s with a west wind at 10-15 mph.

I will check back with you this evening and post some cool weather graphics and have the latest. See you soon on the tube and back here on the web!