Atmosphere remains juiced up with more rain on the way!

Tuesday, June 28, 2011

We are loving the rain and I can gauge this based on the very kind thank you e-mails, including homemade granola that was waiting for me at work at 3 a.m. on Monday morning! Thanks Lori! It was the first time I have had it and it was outstanding! I was also relieved that it finally rained in St. Augustine and after talking about those poor folks for most of my 11 p.m. weathercast on Sunday night that is one forecast I am glad I got right. I feel like a big boulder has been lifted off my shoulders. At my parents house in Mandarin on the other hand....it has been a different story. I better bring flowers before our dinner tonight! But for most of us and yes I know you need more rain Green Cove Springs.... I guess I can take a little credit for the huge turnaround in our weather pattern but remember I certainly do not control the weather. I ordered this rainy pattern up late last summer! Better late the never.

Thank the dewpoints that are once again in the lower 70s this morning. This is telling us there is a ton of water in the atmosphere ready to be squeezed out again and there is no stopping this process with lower pressures in place and sea breezes on the way! Dewpoints are the true measure of humidity and it feeds thunderstorms this time of year. It may make it uncomfortable outside but this lighter air has a much easier time rising and eventually it cools, condenses, and releases even more heat helping cumulus clouds turn into cumulonimbus clouds or thunderstroms in as little a 20 minutes. Yes, the atmosphere is juiced up! Look for king cumulonimbus to return today. Here is another picture of the King of all clouds sent in from Hilliard.

Since last Friday I was concerned that with this stormy pattern emerging severe weather would come with the territory and we certainly saw that again yesterday in Hilliard. It was the second consecutive day they had numerous trees down and even some roads blocked. This picture was sent in by Jenny in Hilliard and it looks like the sky was falling. This shelf cloud produced 60-70 mph wind gusts. Today we will have to keep our guard up for more strong storms and once again Nassau County could see not only the rain but rough weather. I am out of the office today but am compiling a ton of weather data since true meteorologists never are "off". The weather is always happening. Here are a few stats to help you through the day.

-Thunderstorms will be slow-movers again so more rain amounts in excess of 2 inches could fall in less than 40 minutes like we have seen. Watch for lowland flooding. Storms will drift from the northwest to the southeast.

-The highest values of instability today are in Georgia and storms that do form could produce more isolated wind gusts of 60-70 mph along with dangerous lightning.

-In Florida the highest chances of severe weather will be right along the Georgia border including Nassau County. The Storm Prediction Center agrees and shows the trend. The farther north you go the higher your chances of severe weather today.

The areas in yellow and red will have the highest chances of severe weather due to a front coming from the north causing more convergence in the atmosphere. This front will bring plenty of widespread severe weather for areas from Macon, Georgia through Oxford, Mississippi. Here at home severe weather will be more isolated today with areas from Waycross to Alma and Jesup being with the highest severe weather risk.

This storm front will continue to move south bringing us more good rain chances through at least Thursday and it could enhance our severe weather chances farther south in Florida by tomorrow so we will keep an eye on it!

The tropics are active but anything that forms in the Bay of Campeche will quickly move into Mexico by late week.

Our pattern will likely turn much drier and hot this weekend so we need to squeeze out as much rain as possible. I do not think this will be another extended dry period which is good news for the wildfires. Officially this is our worst fire season since 2001 when about 400,000 acres in Florida burned. Right now we have had just over 200,000 acres scorched. But fire season has already peaked! We can now focus on the TROPICS! Some long-range maps are looking very interesting in the 10 to 15 day period.

Have a great day! Off to my workout and I want to thank Dan from Ponte Vedra for sending this great picture to me. This should make your day! There was no stopping our sunrise this morning even through a few distant storm clouds! A sunrise is a gift from God and puts everything into perspective.