Rainfall Forecast Amounts Look Light But Some Rain is Better than No Rain

Monday, November 15, 2010 5 p.m.

Well I wish I had better news but of course I am just the messenger. Rain amounts are looking light with about .10" to .25" for 60% of our area mainly late Tuesday and Tuesday night. The main problem is the low pressure system that is bringing heavy rain to the Florida Panhandle will be quickly lifting to the north tomorrow from near Montgomery, Alabama to Cincinnati, Ohio. At the same time a cold front which adds lift to the atmosphere will not be passing through the JTB-Interstate 95 corridor until late tomorrow night. This means the atmosphere will be much more stable and with most of the dynamics well north of our area I agree with the model above. The other two models I look to while forecasting are showing .01" of an inch and .07" of an inch. Well the hope is that our line of thunderstorms to the west moves our way more quickly which would help hold it together. But for now it looks like a light and scattered rain event as you can see below. The timing and our location, location, location is simply not on our side.

Well doing some research this afternoon, this rain event pretty much sums up our year for rainfall. I will be up early tomorrow morning with an update. Thanks for checking back for our special rain update here on the blog. Have a great dinner and enjoy a nice walk afterwards in our nice 60s this evening.