A Case of Deja-Vu But This Weekend Tracking Something New!

Here we go again. Well this is the lighting capital of the world. Today will be our 15th straight day with rain in the Jacksonville and St. Augustine, Florida area. I am not superstitious but am really starting to believe in deja-vu! Yesterday, you see the cumulonimbus clouds building in all of the heat and humidity and as expected we tracked the dominant Gulf Sea Breeze that helped to fire up late day and evening storms. Today look for this scene to be repeated. We do have a deja-vu pattern continuing with another round of thunderstorms on the way mainly between 3 p.m. and 7 p.m. You see why below. Notice the high PW values!

What is PW? It stands for Precipitable Water values which is the average amount of water vapor that is evaporated in a column of air from the ground to 36,000 feet. What happens is the higher these values in Florida, the better chances of thunderstorms forming especially when you involve sea breezes this time of year. Notice all of the values throughout the peninsula are in the 1.5" to 2.0" range. This warm and humid air mass is what helps fire up and feeds our thunderstorms. These thunderstorms actually compress all of this moisture and can even entrain more moisture in this tropical air mass in our air column of concern. This means it is possible to have some areas under a slow-moving localized thunderstorm to see even more than 2" of rain. Today I think a good average will be another .50" to 1" of rain as our thunderstorms squeeze out plenty of water in our sponge-like atmosphere. Look for thunderstorms to move northeast at 15 to 20 mph. We cannot rule out a few wind gusts near 45 mph. Even if we are not expecting widespread severe weather you always want to remember your lightning safety rules. Here I am wearing this big reminder on this sunny morning. I want to thank my daughter Megan for taking this picture.

Yes, get to your safe spot when you hear thunder or see lightning. Yes, your safe spot in this case would be to get away from this magnolia tree and get inside toward the lower interior of your home and away from windows. Do not touch anything that is plugged in and stay away from all plumbing. When you hear nature rumble this means you are in danger and are close enough to be struck by lightning. Most people get struck by lightning well ahead and after the main part of the storm has passed. Remember the weather saying. If you hear it clear it! If you see it flee it! This is not just a saying it can save your life. Most people are in fact struck by lightning when it is not raining outside and there are many jet skiiers in Florida that can attest to this. I do not want you to also learn this lesson the hard way. Yesterday we went from sunny to stormy in a hurry and you can see the gust front that whipped through St. Johns or just south of the Mandarin area.

There were a few low-hanging scud clouds but no rotation as the thunderstorms moved through. The main threat was some vivid lightning and it was a good tune up for what is on the way today. If there is good news I do see an end in this never-ending thunderstorm pattern. Check out the strongest front in about 3 weeks ready to move our way this weekend.

The picture above is small but this front is a big deal. I circled it in blue for good reason. Rain chances could actually be less than 10% by Sunday into early next week after today's 16th straight day of rain in the area. Even Saturday looks drier with only an lone shower or storm possible impacting less than 30% of us.

We can look forward to great pool weather like we saw on Memorial Day as you see above. Check out my daughter's hair standing on end due to the extreme friction created by one of the fastest water slides I have ever been on. My wife tried to take the picture of my big wipe-out but it was a big blur of water and my legs up in the air. So I thought this picture above would be a little easier to see. This weekend it looks like you will not have to worry about your hair standing on end due to lightning about to strike for once. This front will also be strong enough to keep a dry pattern going for us and much of the Midwest including Indiana and Ohio. That is right Wea, Wainright, and Southwestern Middle Schools it still looks like it will be a great weekend to go to Kings Island and you will have some nice relief from the humidity. I cannot let the cat out of the bag but be ready for a special visitor from Florida coming your way. She is super excited! How about some more good news since I am on a roll? Here is the latest in the tropics.

Even though you see a pretty good spin-up of clouds off the coast of the Carolinas thunderstorm activity is not organizing around a common center and this tropical low is not only poorly organized but will be moving over cooler waters. Here is the latest from the National Hurricane Center as of 8 a.m. on Wednesday morning.

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS IS LOCATEDABOUT 120 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. WHILECONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...THESYSTEM HAS A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFOREREACHING THE COLDER OCEAN TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE CAROLINAS. ASTHE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH AT 10-15 MPH...THESYSTEM COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS TO COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA LATERTODAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THISSYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ANAIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THISAFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY...AND AN ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICALWEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 2 PM EDT.

I could not agree more. This is a reminder that our hurricane season is only 5 days away and begins on Monday. Stay tuned for more on this here on the blog as to why I think an early start and finish to the season is likely this year and how you can keep your family ahead of the storm. Have a great day!