Wednesday, July 2, 2008

Dry Air Pocket in Illinois will Keep Thunderstorms from Going Severe

None of the models showed it! We have a dry pocket that has formed in Illinois. It may be from thunderstorms to the north that helped mix down some drier air from earlier in the day. This will help stabilize the main line of thunderstorms expected to move our way after midnight. This should keep us from seeing a severe thunderstorm watch box issued. I still think it is doubtful we will see much in the way of severe weather. We not only have timing issues, but a lot of dry air for our storms to overcome. Thirdly, a complex of thunderstorms out in Missouri is sagging to the south and east of us and will also tend to zap some energy from the storms moving our way from the North. So all in all it is nice to be missing out on severe weather for once.

Although, not totally! We had an isolated report of quarter size hail and an isolated damaging wind report just east of Burnettsville. We had a low-level jet stream that collided with our warm and muggy air mass. This was enough to build a couple isolated thunderstorms even though the main front was hundreds of miles away. Tonight this same low-level jet stream or higher wind speed concentrated near the ground will collide with a cold front moving our way so we will keep thunderstorms in the forecast. But this time around it will be the kind of thunderstorms you can probably sleep to. Well, unless your a parent. I will probably have a bed full of kids and pets. It is a good thing I will be watching Live Doppler 18 until late tonight. Have a great night and I will check back with you soon!

9 comments:

Anonymous said...

Those storms that hit Carroll County, etc formed here ealier with a rumble of thunder and some raindrops. I don't know how many times over the years I have watched this happen. They form here as a shower and as they move east they form into a squall line. Again tonight I had a tiny red dot on radar right over me. It got dark, had a rumble of thunder, a few raindrops and it was gone. When I checked radar half an hour later there was the squall line eastbound and down :-)

As I check radar I am agreeing that the storms just miss us to both the north and the south.

MA in Remington

Anonymous said...

Thank you mike for the update.

Looks like we are out of this pop up system and it should be out of clinton, and carroll, co in the next few min.

Justin in Lafayette.

Anonymous said...

I need to have a NO rain for 6-7 hours after I finish painting this last coat any chance that I can start tomorrow afternoon ? Or should I wait till Friday ? Anyone have any answers ? My BRIGHT new look is almost finished and my neighbors around here say that our house smiles back at you ! LOL :) Please say tomorrow will be good ??????

Anonymous said...

Romney scaredy cat you might be able to if you start late morning or that afternoon.

Justin in Lafayette.

Anonymous said...

WOW the radar is somthing! Looks like fire works in the NWES wild, take a look gang and see what missed us!
We are lucky so far

Anonymous said...

Romney Scaredy Cat hope you get your house painted, but to be honest, we all have things we need to do outside, and you dont read us complaining, We are all in the same boat so to speak some worse off than just a paint job, some of us are trying to rebuild our homes!

Anonymous said...

BTW:Romney Scaredy Cat, not to seem rude, but my neighbors are looking at homes that are not smiling back at them. They could only wish for a first fresh coat of paint, let alone the last :((
Count you blessings.

Anonymous said...

We all had a bad month in June and we all need work done I agree. But, it is smart to ask if it is going to storm again before roofs or outer work is done. I know we all are upset with the weather.But, I also think it is smart to think ahead before some work is done, hence major outside jobs.Let's all sit back and have a great 4th and think from there.

Samantha in Frankfort

Anonymous said...

Samantha in Frankfort, I agree we all need to think ahead, but I remember the old days before computers and blogs. We counted on our "Weather Man", TV and the radio to give us the forcast. And were always, sooner or later able to get our outside work done.

We are very lucky these days to have such a wonderful blog, and our "Weather Man" Mike and the weather team! Mike does a wonderful job keeping us informed and safe.

Take care all you great bloggers, and have a wonderful Hoilday weekend!