Spring Moves in before Ground Hog Forecast! Venus gets February off to dazzling start!

Monday, January 31, 2011-----11 p.m.

Blog Archive   http://lotsofbarkandbiteinyourforecast.blogspot.com/

Here was the picture of Venus and the moon I promised you! So many folks have been commenting on an immensely bright light in the pre-dawn sky. I snapped this picture Sunday morning from my station's parking lot at about five in the morning.You see the crescent moon with Venus directly over it. Yes, that bright light is in fact not a UFO or a plane, but Venus! It is bright because the sunlight is being reflected off its clouds. The evening will also feature another bright planet. Keep your eyes to the sky for Jupiter in the west. Take a nice walk in our warm weather and finish January in style by enjoying nature to the fullest. Tomorrow morning you can get your February off to an outstanding start by looking up to the heavens at Venus. Nature has been putting on quite the show. The four brightest objects in our sky are the moon, Venus, Jupiter and of course we cannot forget the sun! This is how it looked in our beautiful city on Saturday morning from First Coast News. I was extra excited through all my shows after seeing this!

That sunshine has been going to work for us! It was our third consecutive day with most areas at 70 or above. Spring fever continued in Mandarin with a highs of 73 to go with 72 in St. Johns. Macclenny soared to 71 and Glen St. Mary has gone from hot chocolate advisories to shorts! The warmest location was Lake City at 75 degrees! Now we will warm up at least 3 to 5 more degrees over the next couple of days as the counter-clockwise circulation around a historic storm bringing winter weather advisories and warnings to 33 states keeps us unusually warm! It is amazing how nature works. It always tries to find a balance. While some areas will have 2-3 inches of snow per hour with two feet of snow possible near Chicago we could have our warmest weather of the entire year and it will feel more like March. No we do not have to wait for the Ground Hog this year because Spring is here and I think here to stay. Long-range models are showing our temperatures staying warmer than average with only a slight chance of freezing temperatures over the next two weeks! Yes! To get a balance nature has to go to the extreme and it will be extremely nice here at home. But my thoughts and prayers to go out to my Midwest friends. The worst ice storm on record is likely for many parts of Indiana while Chicago and Bloomington, Illinois could see their biggest snowstorm ever. Unreal! My Midwest friends will send us plenty of pictures and we will certainly be counting our blessings! The good news is my Wisconsin family got home ahead of the blizzard so I can breathe a sigh of relief. Since we do have a lot of Midwest folks that check this blog here is a couple synoptic maps that can help you plan ahead.

Yes, this is a historic map and I do think a state of emergency will be needed for Indiana and Illinois. I still think 1 to 2 inches of ice are on the way through a good portion of central Indiana. The 18 to 24 inch areas in the pink could see white-out conditions reducing visibilities to near zero at times in wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph! Expect thunder snow to drop 4 inches of snow per hour at times. This map is breath-taking and really life-threatening so although I love tracking storms, this map is very bittersweet for me and I am just hoping and praying everybody stays safe. When will this storm be at its worst? Check out the latest below.

You see things really go downhill tomorrow afternoon. Chicago's blizzard warning is officially in effect from 3 p.m. Central Time Tuesday through 3 p.m. Wednesday. Let us not forget February is now officially severe weather season here in the south and the bright yellow and orange areas could bring severe thunderstorms with even a tornado threat from Louisiana into Mississippi, Alabama, far western Florida and Tennessee. Yes, this storm will have everything. We may have to keep an eye to the sky here at home in Florida for a strong storm or two by Wednesday. I will have more on this here on the blog tomorrow along with some severe weather tips. After all it is severe weather awareness week.  Enjoy the nice weather here in Florida and be safe if you are in the Midwest. I am glad they already cancelled schools for tomorrow in Lafayette, Indiana where I do not think the kids will be in school until at least next Monday. Hopefully this weather blog's tranquil pictures from Florida will help you feel at least a little better, but as my old neighbor Kathy told tonight during our conversation about the weather while laughing....it is kind of rude talking about all this nice weather in Florida.....lol...yes, I guess it is Kathy. So as not to be rude I better just say good night for now. The Prangleys will all be thinking about you and send our best Florida.

No more mulligans needed for nature with more 70s on the way! Ground Hog Storm will be one to Remember for Midwest

Sunday, January 30, 2011----12 p.m.

We all woke up to a dazzling Venus brighter than a commercial aircraft next to the jaw-dropping crescent moon. They were the perfect compliments to our finest weekend weather of the year. I have pictures and will post them here this afternoon but I like keeping family first! I am so proud my oldest daughter who just texted me a picture of herself from the par 3 at Palm Valley! Way to go Megan! Does this mean you are ready to go golfing with Dad and teach me how to really swing the club? My relatives are in town from Wisconsin and absolutely loving this weather and I am glad I have had a chance to spend some good quality time with them. They may never leave it is so nice here! Speaking of the Midwest which to me is like my extended family I am not out playing in the sunshine today because you could have a paralyzing storm that will impact and may cost millions. I have had several e-mail requests for a look at this storm that we have all been hearing about and what it means for them and the rest of us.

Some of the latest model runs are mind-boggling and if you live in Indiana all the way up to state road 24 in Monticello. I would prepare for the worst ice storm since March 1991. I have already nick-named it the Ground Hog storm since it is taking place close to and during Ground Hog Day. What makes things worse is there could be 50 mph wind gusts on the backside. A blizzard could develop from Rensselaer northward with somebody seeing two feet of snow near Chicago, which could see one of its top 5 snowstorms ever! I hope I am totally wrong on this, but if you are in the Midwest make sure to have a generator or a friend with a generator because I see clean-up not being on order of a few days, but maybe several weeks with power outages likely and travel not recommended or even possible. Wisconsin looks like it will stay all snow and southern portions could also be measuring it in feet.

All week you have been told the cut-off for ice is Interstate 70 south, but that is ridiculous considering the new pattern across the country. The center of the polar air has shifted north and you have to understand that the more energy you have coming out of the southwest the more the main storm track will shift farther north and west. There is also a southern bias on many of these models because they simply cannot handle all the thermodynamics at work that are constantly changing. Once the model catches on it usually adjusts farther north and west like we have seen so often on the East Coast this winter. This means more ice than snow for most of my beloved Indiana.

The second cause for concern is the latest upper air-charts are showing temperatures at 5,000 feet near 34 degrees during the worst part of the storm. This is why heavy freezing rain and thunder freezing rain is looking more likely. The surface temperatures may stay below freezing but that warm air aloft is just too much. It will melt the snow that will not likely re-freeze until it reaches your frozen roads and porches. My prayers are with you and unfortunately this will be a Ground Hog Day that will never be forgotten as things quickly go downhill Tuesday into Wednesday. It will be the most memorable Ground Hog Day weather event in the Midwest since my weather watcher in Tower, Minnesota set the state record low of -60 with exploding trees. Please be safe and my thoughts and prayers are with you.

Coming back closer to home this storm will turn us stormy as well. The latest models are lighting up once again with heavy rain amount from one to nearly three inches of rain. I think this is overdone as our southern weather models actually have more issues than those on the East Coast and Midwest believe it or not. Add in the ocean, Gulf of Mexico, and tropical meteorology and you have chaos. Yes, when it is sunny outside I am usually busier than ever. But I do think all of us this week will see at least .50" or more of rain with 1'' amounts not out of the question. The monster Midwest storm will eventually send us a cold front and we could actually have waves of low pressure form along it. I am thinking this front will be farther north which means the heavier rain stays in central and northern Georgia. But we will take any help we can get in this extreme drought. In the short-term we will all have a taste of Spring Fever as we stay on the warm side of this developing storm with well above average temperatures. What is average?  Our weather has been so crazy. Let's take a look.

Our average highs have now gone up to 65 degrees! Notice our average high temperatures have now risen by one degree and will be near 70 in just four short weeks. Meteorological Spring begins on March 1st which is only 29 days away and Daylight Saving time begins March 13th and by then average highs will be in the lower to middle 70s! The longer daylight hours are helping with tonight's sunset not until 6:01 p.m. or 35 minutes later than it was during the shortest day of the year.

Check out the buds on the trees in the background taken from Durbin Creek Elementary yesterday. They are responding to longer daylight hours and warmer temperatures! Are you sniffling and sneezing? It may not be a cold! We have a pollen count now showing up and will make sure to post some readings. Those azaleas will be blooming and bursting along with the trees in the next couple weeks. Yes, Spring Fever is here!

The weather blog will continue to be buzzing throughout the week! Tina Warner has some sunset pictures for me to post and we will talk about more brilliant sunsets on the way over the next few days thanks to the main storm track staying to our north and it will be even warmer by mid-week! Tune in tonight at 6, 6:30, and 11 to find out if tornadoes that could hit Alabama this week will make their way into Florida due to that Ground Hog  Day Storm. We will also talk about how it will impact travel here at home and all across the country and take a look at another historic storm on the way for the deep South after the Ground Hog Storm. More snow for Atlanta? Make sure to tune in and check back here on the blog to make some sense out of our weather that now knows no boundaries. This seems to be the new normal, the new climate. Also stay tuned for and logged onto http://www.firstcoastnews.com/weather/blog.aspx for your sneak peak at the weather for the Breast Cancer Marathon here in Jacksonville on February 13th. I cannot wait! Also I will show you some of those amazing Venus and moon pictures on and off the tube. Thanks for reading. Now a quick run before work!

Snow in 60 Degree Weather Making Dreams Come True!

Saturday, January 29, 2011---1 p.m.

There is a sight you do not often see. I took this picture of snow flying in the blue skies with temperatures in the lower 60s at Durbin Creek Elementary School in St.Johns County this morning! Yes, they got out the snow-making machine for the 3rd annual snow day at Durbin Creek. Principal Falaney started this event about three years ago to help raise money for local charities which teaches all the kids how important community involvement really is first-hand. First Coast News Chef Robert was a judge at the chili cook off and I had a great time helping kids make snow balls and snowmen! There were some amazing stools made by some of the kids including a Starry Skies Vincent Van Gogh replica that looked to nice to sit on.

It was a ton of fun for all the kids and they learned one of the most valuable lessons in life. Yes, the more you help others the more amazing life becomes! This was not just a snow day but a dream come true for Hannah Houlihan and her family. Most of the proceeds of this event are going to the MAKE DREAMS COME TRUE foundation which will help fund a Disney Cruise for Hannah and her family. She is a doll and I am glad I got to meet her. The good news is her cancer is in remission and her eyes lit up when she told me she was going on a cruise with her favorite Disney princesses. She is a princess herself and the Houlihan family is very thankful of how wonderful and giving everybody has been. Yes, this certainly was the best snow day I have ever been a part of! Have fun Hannah!

Last year the snow did not totally melt until Monday after this event. This year I think it will be gone by Sunday afternoon since I am forecasting temperatures today near 70 and lower 70s for our Sunday. Yes! Get out and enjoy! The nicest weekend of the year is here! Although New Years weekend was in the 70s we have had 9 freezes since then so I think we will appreciate this even more. We are up to 29 freezes for the winter and after 45 freezes last year those 70s will feel like the best ever! You can see it was a packing snow that made it easy to make snowballs and even miniature snowmen. The kids had the best of both worlds with lots of snow to play in and pleasant weather. The sledding was extra fast because the icy snow was melting. I saw a few wipe-outs! It was the first time I have ever seen kids wear hats and gloves in 60 degree weather, but that snow was cold. I do not think the rest of us will have to get out the hats and gloves the rest of this week or even over the next 10 days! This should make you happy! I snapped this picture of our free First Coast News 10 Day App that is an absolute must have. Our weather team keeps it updated on a daily basis with your exclusive 10 day forecast and street-level radar mapping that did a great job during this past weeks storms. Make sure to add it by searching for FCN Wx or First Coast News Weather.

This would be the warmest stretch of weather since November and the best part is we even have more needed rain for our drought conditions by Ground Hog Day. While much of the country will continue to see adverse weather it does look like Florida will be the place to be as finish January into February. January has been running about 5 degrees below average and this is quite a big pattern change for us. You can see why everybody has been complaining about the weather. The jet stream has brought us 9 polar blasts since December. Our average number of cold outbreaks is only 6 for the entire cold season. Last weekend we set yet another record low of 25, but this weekend we have no freezes to worry about for once!

Now the overall pattern is changing to more of a SPLIT LONGWAVE PATTERN as we go into February. The active polar jet stream that has roughed us up this winter will move well north of us and the weak southern jet stream will occasionally flare up bringing us needed rain. This weekend at least it is the northern jet stream that will stay active so even though we will see a few more clouds on Sunday we will remain dry. This is a great pattern for us and one we just have not seen much of over this strange past year. This means the battle zone will move well north of Florida along with the coldest of the weather as you see below.

I am working on the February forecast so make sure to tune in tonight for this on First Coast News at 6,6:30, and 11:00 p.m. You do not have to wait for the Ground Hog this year to find out if Spring is coming early....lol... I will tell you why we will not see a repeat of last year and if you can put away the heavy coats in the attic for good. I will see you soon. Thanks for reading and to all the great folks in St. Johns County I met at the Durbin Creek elementary SNOW DAY!

Drought to Deluge & Funnels! Severe Weather Season off to a Booming Start

Wednesday, January 26, 2011

What a night it was and the good news is everybody is safe and sound. It helped having First Coast News Live Doppler Radar or Jacksonville's only real-time radar without a two minute delay. Yesterday some of those severe thunderstorm cells were moving east-northeast at 50 mph and it did a great job keeping up to whatever nature was dishing out. Even better the those 100 mph winds over Jacksonville yesterday did not reach the ground. But they did cause some rotating severe thunderstorms. You can see the funnel cloud spotted near St. Augustine by Steven Hayes. This prompted a tornado warning. The good news is the funnel cloud did not reach the ground. Our weather team zoomed in on this cell with street-level mapping. Check it out above.

Jacksonville's only Live Doppler radar did a great job showing that that it was not only forming that classic hook you see with tornadoes but that it was quickly weakening. I am glad we were the first to put folks in the St. Augustine area at ease. That is what is all about. l quickly formed and dissipated.About one in ten of these whirling dervish clouds reach the ground but not yesterday, so we are certainly counting our blessings. We are especially lucky because the six tornadoes reported around Florida did not occur in our viewing area. Check out the latest reports on the tornadoes from the Storm Prediction Center. Every day is a weather action day for our weather team so make sure to stay tuned! This storm was a good reminder that severe weather season is underway.

There were also 75 mph wind gusts that tore through St. Petersburg, Florida. Here locally the highest wind gusts were closer to the 45 to 55 mph range. The other funnel cloud we had near Palm Coast also did not reach the ground and it was flooding that was the main problem at Flagler Beach as many areas had a month's worth of rain in 5 hours. Check out these impressive doppler reports.

McCoys Creek flooded and Jacksonville set a rainfall record for the date! The storm total reached 2.64" which was the heaviest rain since August 20-21st when we had 2.71" of rain. More importantly the rain wrapped up Jacksonville's first above average rainfall month since August! We had more rain in five hours than we had in the 3 months from October through December! WOW!! This ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL was forecasted here on the weather blog way back in early January which made it even more special for me. But, it was not all about celebrating when it came down to lightning with these storms. The most damage reported northeast Florida was from two lightning strikes. One lightning strike caused a house fire in Mandarin and the other earth-shaking strike was in Keystone Heights. This is another good reminder that lightning is the number one weather killer in Florida which is the lightning capital of the country. Severe Weather Awareness Week begins this coming up Sunday and we will review some more weather safety tips to keep you and your family safe. In the meantime, enjoy a much nicer pattern moving in and we may actually have our warmest stretch since November on the way. Yes, I better go get some tee times.

Cold La Nina Strikes Again! Back into the Deep Freeze Tonight

The cold La Nina of 2010-11 strikes again. We finally warmed back up a bit last week here at home, but an unsually strong jet stream that is much farther south than normal continues to play havoc with the weather across the country. By the end of the month only California and Washington will have had above average temperatures this winter. It is the coldest La Nina since at least 1917. Our weather will once again average about 10 degrees below average this week. If there is good news it is this chilly pattern is more conducive for us receiving rainfall. Usually we are lucky to see a good rain every couple weeks in a La Nina but we have another good shot at rain Tuesday and at least two more good rain chances after that in the next 12 days. Keep the hot chocolate handy and those warm thoughts. At least climatologically we are past the coldest part of our winter.

Tonight make sure to join me  and we will take a look at how low we will go in your neighborhood and who will have to protect the pipes. I will check back with you here on the blog this evening.

Full Wolf Moon Lights Up the Sky & Plenty of Good Weather to Howl At!

Howl are y'all? It is a big night here at First Coast News. Send us in your best howl imitations. I will share them with you during my main weather. We have an official full moon alert tonight and the moon is officially 100% illuminated at 10:21:24 p.m. tonight. Check it out before the show. We have impeccable viewing conditions.

The full wolf moon is the name given to the January full moon by the native Americans. This was the time of year that wolves hungrily howled at the moon because they were hungry. Food was hard to come by with a thick snow pack that often times developed this time of year in most areas to our north. There are two pictures I am sharing with you above. The first picture shows you the parts of a moon. The second picture of the moon is exactly how it looked through our tower cam over Everbank Field tonight. You can see the moon is showing more of its western side but you can still pick out the sea of rains on its left side. Of course this is my favorite part of the moon created by a huge asteroid impact which was then quickly filled by lava. You can also see the sea of serenity, the sea of tranquility, and the sea of fertility from left to right on the upper part of the moon. The moon is nice and bright out there tonight and is 10 times brighter than it was just a week ago when it was in its first quarter phase. Send in some pictures so I can share them on the air and here on the blog. Hurry, we are running out of time before the big show.

We will also talk about the sea of tranquility to go with your weather pick of the week on Thursday. If that is not enough we will also take a look at the unusual La Nina pattern which will bring us more rain in the 7 day forecast. Will it be enough to break the drought? I will let you know. See you soon and I will check back with you here on the blog to post much more ASAP! Thank you.

Hot Chocolate Advisory, Frost as thick as Snow, & Black ice threat tonight!

Friday, January 14, 2011       10 p.m.

First off I want to say how great it is to be back in the saddle! I was a little under the weather. I hope you and your family are staying healthy because I know there are a lot of bugs going around out there. This weather certainly does not help matters, that is for sure. We finally warm up to the 70s and then nature puts us right back into the deep freeze. The big stat you have been hearing is it has been so cold and stormy around the country that Florida is the only state without snow cover. Yes, as of yesterday 71% of the country was covered by snow which was more than last years maximum cover in the lower 48 states of 68%. The average snow depth was an amazing 7 inches per square foot! Check out the map below from earlier this week.

Hawaii has even had a foot of snow on the upper elevations of the big island of Hawaii. Unbelievable. So is Florida the only state without snow on the ground? Well, not after today! Fort Caroline Baptist Academy got out the snow machines for the kids. There was enough snow on the ground to make snowmen and lots of snowballs for snowball fight! If it is going to be this cold in Florida we might as well have snow. After all we tied the record low in Jacksonville of 23 this morning set back in 1964. The kids had a ball out in that snow and notice they used beach shovels since you cannot buy snow shovels anywhere in Florida....lol. What a great shot we showed you on First Coast News this evening. This snow will likely melt quickly this weekend with highs recovering back closer to normal in the lower 60s!

Not to rain on your warmer weather news, but just when you think you have seen everything this winter, think again! Tonight we will not just have frost but heavy frost. This has been known to cause slick bridges and overpasses. So if you are driving late tonight and first thing tomorrow morning especially from areas near Interstate 95 west make sure to exercise extra caution when driving. We had an ocean breeze that kicked in today giving us extra low-level moisture in the atmosphere to work with. This combined with crisp, clear, and calm conditions gives us all the ingredients necessary for a thick frost that may resemble a sugar-coating of snow.

One other thing that could compound problems will be patchy freezing fog that could form in some areas. Freezing fog forms in temperatures below freezing and can cause ice to accumulate on bridges and overpasses. This usually takes place in the far north and Canada not this far south. This ice is known as black ice because it is transparent and the average driver cannot tell it is there. So I would not use cruise control while driving on bridges and overpasses and would certainly slow it down out there. Be safe! The good news is this will be the last night for hard freezes for quite some time. The true hard freeze line where temperatures will be below 27 for two hours or more I would draw from Lake City to Waycross and westward. These are the areas you will want to protect your pipes. Otherwise remember the  other 3 P's which include pets, plants, and people! The rest of us should have more of a normal freeze except for the beaches where temperatures will be in the middle to upper 30s.

Last but not least is if it is going to be this clear and cold we need to keep our icy glass half full! Set your alarm tomorrow morning for 6:30 a.m. and get out a cup of hot chocolate and go outside. By 6:54 a.m. you will see the International Space Station pass over Jacksonville Florida from the west-southwest and it will cross the north-northeast horizon before leaving our view at 6:58 a.m. and it will be able to be seen without binoculars or a telescope. Imagine a slow-moving shooting star that you can enjoy and almost reach out and touch. You can come over to the Prangley house. We will be having an ISS party! Tomorrow here on the blog we will talk about a new weather acronym called the MJO...we all know MOJO from the Jags....but in the weather world the MJO may be just as impressive if you like warmer weather here in Florida. Check back for more! Thanks for reading and I will see you at 11 p.m. if you cannot wait until tomorrow to find out about the MJO!! Take care.