Groundhogs Do Not Agree on Arrival of Spring

Chuckie Wheezer Ready for her big day!

While Pennsylvania has Punxsutawney Phil, locally we count on Chuckie Wheezer.
The groundhog lives at the Wildcat Wildlife Center in Carroll County. Assistant Director Denise Hays says that the cute critter has a special name because of her interesting characteristics. Chuckie Wheezer is a ground hog that was brought to us, she was born in the summer of 2006 so this is her second Groundhog Day. She got her name, Chuckie-Wheezer, because the volunteers were split on a name they liked. Some of the volunteers liked Chuckles, because she made everyone laugh, and then some of the volunteers liked Wheezer because she actually has some respiratory issues, and she wheezes especially when she gets playing and running around and stuff like that. So they put it together and came up with Chuckie Wheezer.

Last year, News Channel 18's official Groundhog, Chuckie Wheezer, saw her shadow.She forecasted 6 more weeks of winter. The Blizzard of 2007 arrived within two weeks of her forecast and daily temperatures remained below average through late February. Her forecast was right on target until March when it turned warmer than normal with 70s to near 80 by the second week. So Chuckie's forecast of six more weeks was pretty good although she was off by about two weeks last year.

Did Chuckie see her shadow this year? NO!! Our TV-18 videographer Blake Naftel decided not to turn his camera lights on this morning and with cloudy skies in the area, Chuckie did not see her shadow. So I applaud Blake for letting nature take its natural course which does not happen with Phil in Pennsylvania. I am glad she made it out of her home after all the snow on Friday, but she did!

This means winter has been canceled until next year with an early Spring on the way. Like last year I think Chuckie will only be partly correct. I do see some warm weather between now and March 20th or the start of Spring, but I also see plenty of winter weather including snowstorms and ice storms. I will have more on this here on the blog next week. I would not pack away the winter coats and snow blowers just yet.



Other ground hog forecasts today:

Punxsutawney Phil (Saw his shadow which means 6 more weeks of winter)

Beauregard Lee-Southern ground hog- Did not see shadow (early Spring on the way)

Sun Prairie Jimmy (Wisconsin) Early Spring

Pee Wee (Vermont) Six more weeks of winter

Wiarton Willie (Canada) Early Spring

Shubenacadie Sam (Nova Scotia) Early Spring

Staten Island Chuck (New York) Early Spring

Woody (Michigan) Early Spring

So there you have it...I will add a few more rodent forecasts as they come in but the majority of them say to get ready for an early Spring. Only time will tell and I have to warn them that forecasting is a humbling business. They may have to eat a little humble pie like I did this past week. But the challenge is what makes weather forecasting so much fun! I agree with Phil and Pee Wee on this year's forecast and even though we are outnumbered we will keep the faith. LET IT SNOW, LET IT SNOW, LET IT SNOW!! Now off to go celebrate Valentine's Day with my wife. I can't get "I've got you Babe" out of my head...BABE, I GOT YOU BABE, I GOT YOU BABE....

Storm's Last Gasp Moves Through, Roads Remain Treacherous

The snow angels are out today!

Yes, I got a few winks of sleep and woke up to a winter wonderland. I just got off the phone with numerous weather watchers and Kelly Greene to go over the numbers and for a storm that really did not behave anywhere close to expected the snowfall totals are quite impressive. How close were we to having double digit snowfall? Just across the Illinois border 10 inches of snow has been reported in Watseka.

Heavy bursts of snow will move through the area this morning and be out of here this afternoon. While we will have some wind gusts close to 20 mph, the snow is a heavy wet snow which should cut down on blowing and drifting snow. But I still would not be surprised for some areas to have snow drifts in the 12 to 18 inch range, especially those areas that ended up closer to 8 inches of snow.

What is really disturbing to me this morning is NOT a few of those complaints on the blog....nobody will take away all of our fun on the weather blog. I am upset about reports of the many slide-offs around the area. It is a reminder that the 5 to 8 inches snow that most of us received can cause huge problems on area roadways. I am relieved the schools are closed keeping all the kids out of harm's way. I was going to go try to work-out but I cannot get out of my neighborhood at this time. I will have to run around with the kids outside and may have to do a live-shot from my house tonight!

We have just over 6 inches of snow here on the southside of Lafayette with all the kids enjoying their snow day. WLFI in West Lafayette is closing in on 7 inches. There have been problems reported on even the main interstates because you go from very little snow to our southeast in Boone and Clinton County to an icy and snowy winter wonderland as you move just to the north and east of Frankfort. So please warn folks coming from the Indianapolis to slow it down as they drive northward because conditions deteriorate in a hurry. You can see what is causing the trouble with these preliminary weather watcher snowfall totals as of Noon today.

Independence 8"

Earl Park 8"

Boswell 8"

Monon 8.2"

Kentland 7"

Fowler 7"

WLFI 7.1"

Lafayette 6.1"

Remington 6"

Otterbein 6"

Covington 6"

Kokomo 4.5"

Galveston 4"

Crawfordsville 5"

Logansport 5"

Tipton 2.5"

Frankfort 2"

You can see what a difference in a storm track can make. Instead of the storm going to Cincinnati, the center of the storm went right up to Terre Haute. The storm did not take the turn until about 3 a.m. so there was very little I could do but be at the mercy of nature. This in turn brought a surprise snowstorm to areas like Aurora just west of Chicago that had 12" of snow! A good portion of central Illinois is literally shut down with travel not advised today. This is the area that had widespread 10 inch plus snows. But you still did not have to travel that far to see double digit snowfall. Here was the final snowfall map and believe it or not Watseka and Rankin just across the Indiana-lllinois border reported 10 and 11 inches repectively.

This storm is a reminder that forecasting is a science and things do change. This is more reason to get on the blog and report the weather and tune into Live Doppler 18 since it is your only live scan of the atmosphere from where you live. The new computer system will have all new basemaps so you can see our wild weather up close. Nobody is harder on me than myself and even though we did not get the expected 10 to 14 inches, I do feel better because I kept folks out of harm's way and gave 100%. Everybody was prepared for this storm and knew it was coming which did make a huge difference. I have come a long way and no longer lock myself in my room with the shades down for a couple of days when I miss a forecast. I am sorry I was wrong this time and expected a whole lot more snow but I learned a lot from this storm, ate my humble pie, and look forward to forecasting the next storm!

Today, I can assure you I will be as optimistic as ever and be more determined to give you the most accurate local forecast available. The new computer will help with this and I will prove it to you over the next few weeks. Lafayette is a special place to live and forecast weather that is for sure. I appreciate all your reports and those who called and e-mailed me through the night. I did not even need coffee because you were so terrific and kept me going. It was quite a sight having our whole weather team together as Kelly went on the air at 5 a.m.

I was very proud of not only our weather team but our news staff that worked so hard through the night. We believe in serving you and unlike the bigger stations we do not send you to a so-called fancy automated system to get the job done with all the closings. Our station is one of a kind and I believe full of the best people in the entire country. We are WLFI. I also know that we have the best and most loyal viewers around. I cannot thank you enough for sticking by us. We take great pride in being your one and only station.

I better go do some shoveling. Thanks again and make sure to send in as many pictures as you can so I can post them here and on the air. Now I have to try to figure out how to get back to work. :)

Still Awake & Shoveling Too! Sleet Mixing in Due to Change in Storm Track

Kelly is in and we are using up all of our computer monitors. I have made some calls, Kelly is building her show and looking at models, and Lee Ann is checking out Precision 18 lightning. There is no new lightning to report. Our snowfall here at WLFI is now 2.5" and the question is will the heavy snow in Illinois pivot our way. Right now it looks like we will have at least another 2 to 4 inches. Total snow accumulations will likely be in the 5 to 8 inch range. The 8 inch areas will be in Benton, Warren, Fountain, and northern White County near Monon. Counties. Independence and Monon have the highest totals right now with closer to 4.5" in Independence and 5" in Monon.

Our morning crew is reporting slick roads, but not too much in the way of blowing and drifting snow since the snow is a heavy snow. We also had some sleet mix in on the east-side of Lafayette. This is also holding snow totals down. One thing to be careful of this morning is shoveling snow. It is a heavy wet snow. Here I am shoveling outside. Yes, I do windows also! :)



The main reasons we have had less snow than expected:

1) The dry slot cut down on our totals before midnight.

2) The storm track moved 100 miles farther to the northwest so Central Illinois became the bullseye.

3) An icy mix moved farther north and west as a result also cutting down on our snow totals.

4) Our weather models continue to have a southeast bias with storm tracks and it can mean huge changes to a snowfall forecast. This problem needs resolved.

I will keep you in the loop. I did call the National Weather Service and they also agree with this assessment. I am going to get a few hours sleep. In the meantime, please be careful on the roads and shoveling snow since it is so heavy. Remember to take frequent breaks. The average shovel loaded with 16 pounds of snow ends up moving 192 pounds of snow if you load your shovel about 12 times a minute. That's almost 2,000 pounds being lifted in just over 10 minutes!

Lightning Picking Up in Illinois

10 lightning strikes between Springfield and Decatur!! WOW!!! I really do like our chances for thundersnow here in the Lafayette viewing area!! Enjoy the pic!

First Lightning Bolt Just South of Salem,Illinois

Thundersnow is showing up now on Precision 18 Snow Tracker between Mount Vernon and Salem, Illinois. This is important for us because a big part of the forecast was that this storm would be strong enough to generate thundersnow so we went with double digit totals.

Remember if you have lightning with snow it is called thundersnow and it has been known to drop one to as much as four inches of snow per hour here in the Midwest. Areas between Salem and St. Louis are picking up one inch of snow per hour and here in Lafayette we will also see about an inch of snow per hour until further notice. Lee Ann snapped some pictures on our new computer system we have been raving about and will show you on the air next week. You can see a shot of lightning track above...we will eventually put this on the web and it will be crystal clear. This picture turned out pretty well for taking a picture of a monitor, wouldn't you say?

Here is Live Doppler 18 showing heavy snow. Chris just called in from Frankfort and they have some heavy sleet coming down and I got to hear some loud pinging on the phone. This should change over to some heavy snow by 4 a.m. Precision 18 is showing some rotation in the clouds just north of Indianapolis which is very unusual. I told you during the last update that this snow is behaving more like heavy spring showers and thundershowers. What a start to February! We are not expecting any tornadoes, but it shows you how much energy is in the atmosphere right now.

Area snowfall totals:

Independence 3.5"

Boswell 3.5"

Remington 2.0"

WLFI 1.5"

Monticello 1.0"

Frankfort 0.5"

Yes!!!!!!!!!!!! We've got a snowstorm! Joke to keep you and us awake: Where does a snowman keep his money? In a snowbank. This joke works at 2 in the morning. Thank goodness my wife is sleeping and not having to hear this.

Tracking Heavy Cells of Snow! Thunder May Be Next

Our Precision Lightning Tracker is now tracking heavier cells of snow moving in Montgomery County. This is something we do with heavier Spring showers that sometimes build into thunderstorms. Even though we do not have warm, tropical air to lift the air in the atmosphere like we see in the summer, our atmosphere can have a ton of rising air when strong storm systems move our way. All you need is a very intense storm system and lots of upper-level dynamics like we are seeing out there right now. These cells will move into Tippecanoe and Clinton Counties in the next hour causing moderate to heavy snow to develop and with the low pressure really starting to wind up we will have to listen for thunder. We will continue to monitor the lightning situation for you. There have been no bolts yet, but this could very well change. I will have snowfall amounts coming your way soon! The excitement is building.

By the way, the corn bread my wife brought in tastes extra good with heavier snow. I may heat up macaroni and cheese shortly. Julie's chili I had earlier was outstanding. I am lucky to have her. She not only fed me but most of our evening staff. Food, snow, and good company go hand and hand, and our weather team is having a great time keeping you informed. I may need some gatorade now to stay hydrated here in the studio with 6% relative humidity.

Snow Finally Picks Up Here In West Lafayette

A special thanks to Lee Ann for keeping the blog going. She would be a great blogger! I am very lucky to have Lee Ann and Kelly on my weather team and things are picking up here at the station. The WLFI SNOW MODEL UPDATE...AS OF 1 A.M. It is showing a healthy 9" of snow over us. Speaking of snow....here is your updated forecast. I noticed a lot of folks have written this storm off, but I am sticking with some hefty totals.



The dry slot has finally moved to our east and Lee Ann and I are ready to go measure snow! The latest timeline for you looks like this.



Talk to you soon! Our Doppler is really starting to light up! I am going to check for lightning and get back to you. This storm is really starting to intensify! I will check back shortly....