Great weather to enjoy our bonus evening daylight all week long!

Sunday March 13, 2011
What a weekend it has been. The Gate River Run brought fantastic weather and it is just the beginning of a winning weather pattern. Nature will deserve some medals like Mark and Adam above. You see their biggest fans were there to greet them at the finish line. Looking at the latest models this week the first thing that sticks out is the strong Pacific jet stream that will crash into the California coastline this week with a couple systems. This is setting up what is called a positive EPO which is short for East Pacific Oscillation. This is a Spring index meteorologists look at in Florida and when it is positive it usually brings us warmer than normal temperatures and dry weather. That is exactly what is in your forecast. Inland location the next couple days will be near 80 while a sea breeze will keep things a little cooler near the coast with highs in the middle 70s.

There may be a few more clouds on Tuesday with a front that has little in the way of upper support due to the EPO so do not expect any rain. Our plants will not have to worry about any frosts this week but make sure to water them. I am happy to say my garden is doing quite well and this includes the salvia or sage made it through Saturday mornings slight frost. I spent a ton of time in the garden this weekend and planted away. Now this would not have been possible back on this date in 1993. Do you know why?

Yes, this is the anniversary of the Super Storm here in Florida when on this date in 1993 we had no fewer than 11 tornadoes and a 12 foot storm surge along the west coast. You see this gargantuan storm on the NOAA satellite picture that had a whopping low pressure of 960 mb or 28.34 inches. We even had snow flurries and wind chills in the 20s in Jacksonville within 12 hours of all the severe weather. High temperatures were near 70 at midnight and fell into the 30s during the afternoon! Wind gusts hit 76 mph here in Jacksonville and there were plenty of power outages around town. Tonight join me at 6:30 and 11 p.m. and I will have more on this Super Storm and super weather pattern. I will also be back this evening to post some more maps for you here on the blog. Take care. Enjoy the nice late sunset tonight at 7:34 p.m. It should be picture-perfect.

Record Lows and Winter to Spring all in a few hours!

Saturday, March 12, 2010

The good news here in St. Johns is that most of the frost this morning is on the rooftops or cars. I found a little slight frost in the grassy areas. Our lows here hit 35 degrees. Jacksonville International Airport had a record low of 32 which broke the record of 33 set back in 1998. The beaches as expected had lows near 40 while the normally colder locations like Folkston and Macclenny plummeted to 31 degrees. The frost in these areas was light which is good news for our plants. There are different degrees of frost and with our warm ground thanks to several days with highs in the 80s in February it does look like any plant damage will be minimal. This type of frost is called a "slight frost". A light to moderate frost usually occurs when temperatures fall as low as 28 to 31 degrees, while a killing frost usually takes place with temperatures below 28 degrees. We did not see anything like that last night as forecasted. Now we can get on with our Spring and the world's biggest 15k run!!

Bring on the rite of Spring here in Jacksonville which of course is the Gate River Run and it will feel like Spring. Today's rebound in temperatures may be even more impressive than last night's record lows. By noon most of us will be in the middle 60s. Temperatures will be rising about 8 degrees per hour. Dry air masses can cool down quickly but also can heat up in a hurry especially with a strong March sun. Make sure you have your sunscreen for the race. Best of all, you will not have to worry about running against the wind over the Green Monster or Hart Bridge. You will have a slight back wind! Have a great race!

I am off to my garden where my plants are in good shape! My daughters are ready to help me out. It does not get any better! We have a lot of planting to do today especially with no more frost to worry about in the forecast. In fact, warmer than average temperatures will likely be with us through much of the rest of March. Next week we will be running about 5 to 10 degrees above normal with highs in the middle to upper 70s on the way by Sunday. We could top 80 by St. Patrick's Day which is next Thursday. Unfortunately, the news on rain is not as good for the fertilizer I am putting down today. I will have more on this here on the blog this weekend and talk more about the Japan earthquake that actually impacted the earth's rotation! God bless all those folks and have a great day!

Frost advisory issued from Interstate 95 westward tonight

First off my prayers go out to those impacted by one of the earth's worst earthquakes and tsunami to ever hit. This earthquake may have actually been a 9.0 which would place it in the top 5 biggest ever on our planet and certainly Japan's worst ever. The images and video are mind-boggling and very sad. It reminds you of what really matters in life and how fragile it really is. Now the blog question of the day is...can a tsunami hit Florida? Absolutely! In fact Mayport is one of two Florida communities officially enrolled in the TsunamiReady program. NOAA has a tsunami alert system in place to keep the East Coast and Gulf of Mexico safe. While most of your big tsunamis occur in the Pacific and Indian Oceans where the plates are more active we could have a smaller tsunami created by an earthquake in the Caribbean Islands. But most of this energy usually propagates well to the north of the Sunshine State. Our chance of a bigger more devastating tsunami may depend on a big volcanic collapse in the Canary Islands off Africa. But chances of this happening are very small. The moral of the story is to never say never.

A frost advisory is in effect for our viewing area from Interstate 95 westward tonight from 2 a.m. to 9 a.m. Clear skies, light wind, and high pressure will bring ideal radiational cooling conditions. Lows in Jacksonville could actually tie the record of 33 set back in 1998. Areas along the river will be in the middle 30s while the beaches will be near 40.

The good news is if your garden is adequately mulched this is what is called a light frost and most of your plants should survive. This type of frost can bring some light leaf damage but the plant is able to heal itself. The extra sensitive plants still will need to be brought in or a tarp needs to be used. It also will not hurt to water the plants this evening. This will help keep them warmer as the soil releases moisture into the air.

The good news is by Saturday afternoon it will feel like spring again with temperatures rising quickly into the middle 60s by noon on our way to a high temperature in the lower 70s! There will be a nice light wind for the Gate River Run with plenty of sunshine. Remember to turn your clocks forward an hour Saturday night before bed and change your smoke detector batteries.

Nature's March mayhem continues with wind chills and frost concerns after the storms

March 10, 2011

What a night it was in the weather center and the good news is we had very little in the way of damage reports across the area outside a couple small trees and a bent railroad crossing arm you see above in Timuquana. There were wind gusts in most locations between 40 to 50 mph with the highest wind gust reported at the St. Augustine airport at 52 mph. Yes, tropical storm force winds blew through the area. We are counting our blessing especially after reviewing the plethora of wind damage reports over southwest Georgia, west Florida and Alabama with even tornadic activity reported in Escambia County. A young boy was struck by lightning in Okaloosa County inside his school! Apparently he was touching a light switch when there was a ton of lightning. Luckily, he is okay and I always do tell kids on my school talks never touch anything connected to power. Even your computers that are plugged in can be a danger. So we were keeping close track of that lightning for you yesterday that is for sure. You can see the light show below! One of these days I am convinced we will start issuing lightning warnings, but in the meantime you can always turn to us at First Coast News to find our where Florida's number one weather killer lightning is actually located. There is a good reason they call this the lightning capital of the world.

The one thing that likely saved our area from seeing the severe damaging storms was the fact we had a sea breeze move well inland and the storms that fired up along this boundary ahead of the main line helped stabilize the atmosphere. Also your strongest upper-level winds were still well back in western Florida. The main line of thunderstorms raced several hundred miles out in front of the main cold front which also helped it lose some of its punch as it moved east. But this line was impressive and we tracked it all the way from the French Quarter on Mardi Gras on Tuesday afternoon to our First Coast beaches by late Wednesday evening. Our Live Doppler radar was a valuable tool especially when you had storms popping up over the area and a strong line of storms racing our way at 40 mph. Here is a look at your two minute advantage which really was about a 5 mile or more advantage yesterday. Take a look.

While the National Weather Service radar was showing the main line of storms still back near Switzerland which is the white circle to the left while our Live Doppler radar had the storms bearing down on Interstate 95 and Durbin or the white circle to the right. This is a huge difference especially when you were getting calls from folks reporting ominous clouds and gusty winds. Your Only Live Doppler enabled us to do special storm scans and focus on the areas of most concern to make sure there was no rotation significant enough to reach the ground as a tornado. Time does save lives in severe weather and keeping people safe is our weather team's number one priority. Yes, we had a two minute advantage and then some yesterday. Everybody I spoke to this morning was all smiles that we missed out on the severe weather and got some needed rain. Even your very own Live Doppler radar was all smiles last night. Can you pick out the smiley face?

Rain amounts across the area are in the .50" to 1" rain with most of the beaches including St. Augustine in the .75" to 1" range which is even better news since these areas are in extreme drought. Lake City checked in with 1.15" while Folkston and Brunswick, Georgia had just over an inch of rain. This was our heaviest rain since February 10th!

Nature is not done just yet, there may be a price to pay for all this rain. You see the big dip in the jet stream that looks like something more out of January. Well it did help draw plenty of moisture out of the Gulf of Mexico but it will also usher in a brief blast of polar air as it moves east. Today you will need your jackets with wintry winds moving in and temperatures holding in the 60s. Tonight we will drop like a rock with lows in the middle to upper 30s. There will be too much wind for a frost or freeze but we will have wind chills in many location near freezing by morning! Yes, March mayhem has turned into an early April Fool's joke.

Tonight at 5, 5:30, and 6 we will also focus on frost chances on Saturday morning. There will be lighter winds in the area and right now I am thinking a light frost is possible especially for areas near Lake City and the Interstate 75 corridor closest to the area of high pressure moving in. It is all about location, location, location with this high pressure. If it happens to be farther east then I will extend the frost threat to at least the highway 301 corridor and interior southeast Georgia. The good news is temperatures should stay well above freezing along the river and beaches, but the forecast becomes much trickier the farther north and west you go. I will pinpoint this for you tonight and have the latest on the Gate River Run. I will check back with you with more answers and I have space shuttle Discovery fly-over pictures to post from Tuesday night.

Severe weather continues to hold together and move our way

From The First Coast News Information Center: A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 800 PM EST for all of our Georgia counties. This means conditions are favorable for damaging thunderstorms to move across our area. Florida is not officially in this watch but this could change and we will monitor it closely with your only Live Doppler radar. The main threats will be wind gusts to near 70 mph and possible one inch hail. Remember all severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. The main line of storms will arrive in our southeast Georgia viewing area after 4 p.m. and northeast Florida after 6 p.m. Keep an eye to the west. That is where the storms are moving from. For more information, log onto http://www.firstcoastnews.com/.

We are also tracking a supercell thunderstorm that has had a history of damaging wind gusts and rotation. This will be near Waycross, Georgia by 5 p.m. as it moves east-northeast at 40 mph.

Parade of storms cross the country on Mardi Gras and we watch for the Space Shuttle tonight

Tuesday, March 8, 2011 (Updated to include new times of shuttle and ISS fly-over tonight)

Wow we talked about a rollercoaster ride and we have got it! We woke up with lower to middle 40s in many areas this morning and by noon most of us were in the lower 70s. Yes! Happy Mardi Gras and it looks like nature is getting into the spirit with a parade of storms across the country. Burlington, Vermont has canceled flights and had its 5th biggest snowstorm on record with over two feet of snow. For a snowstorm to shut down Vermont you know this pattern means business! These storms are whipping up warm weather ahead of them with chilly spells for us behind them. The one thing we have been missing is rain but tonight I will tell you about why this next storm system on Wednesday night and Thursday morning will deliver needed rain and an increased threat of thunderstorms we will have to watch closely. I will post more on this here on the blog. But first things first!

Tonight we will look to the sky for the Space Shuttle which should pass over the First Coast at 7:23 p.m. Look for Discovery in the north just above the horizon and it will cross the sky like a slow-moving shooting star until it exits from our view at 7:24 p.m. in the northeast. You do not need a telescope. The International Space Station will closely follow the shuttle at 7:25 p.m. and be in view until 7:27 p.m. The good news is the latest satellite picture from NASA shows we should have decent viewing with the thicker clouds from our next weather maker holding back in western Florida through late tonight. Enjoy and of course I will be on the roof watching with you!

A special thanks to my wife who helped talk me through making her special Mexican Dip recipe (on the phone) for our First Coast News Mardi Gras party. I think the dip will be long gone by time I am watching the shuttle. The hard part will be not eating it before I get to work. Have a great day!

A rollercoaster ride and another breezy week as fire concerns rise

Monday March 7, 2011

Brrr. It was a chilly start to our work week with highs only reaching the upper 50s. Nature was reminding us that officially it is still winter and we will need to throw on an extra blanket tonight with lows dropping back down into the upper 30s to lower 40s interior to the middle to upper 40s along the waterways. There will be no frost to worry about thanks to a few straggling clouds and light northeast breezes. On a much warmer note, you see my and two of my daughters Lauren and Abbey enjoying the American Cup this weekend where it was just great to spend some time with them. They are growing up so fast and I need to enjoy them while I can. It was icing on the cake being able to see some of the world's best gymnasts compete. Jordyn Weiber and Jonathan Horton made it an American sweep. Now I have been to many sporting events including watching Michael Jordan dunk over three players. But this event was in a world of its own and those athletes are breath-taking. I am still in awe.

Speaking of taking your breath away we went from near 80 with towering cumulus clouds this weekend to a wintry sky and my dog was not too happy on his dog walk. I was not either in my long sleeves and shorts I was wearing before my run...lol. You can see the change in the weather pattern by looking at the clouds. You see the Spring-like maritime tropical air mass above and the wintry stratocumulus clouds below.

We were talking about these clouds during tonight's newscast. Those stratocumulus clouds kept the Fernandina Beach pier in the upper 40s today! Ouch. The polar air mass going over the warmer ocean which is now up to 60 degrees did the trick and it was more like an April Fool's joke out there especially if you were trying to fish off the pier. Even more of a joke was the amount of rain we received on Sunday. Yes, this was no laughing matter for me. Eventually I came out of hiding to do some gardening later Sunday afternoon. Basically we had everything on the table you need for some nice downpours on Sunday, but a pre-frontal line of weakening showers came through about 8 a.m. Sunday and not only did it stabilize our atmosphere but it pulled down extremely dry air which overwhelmed our second line of showers and storms that caused it to almost entirely fall apart. Absolutely none of the models picked up on this, not even our rapid update cycle models. Yes, nature reminded me of who is in charge. Weather keeps me humble that is for sure. A small consolation was the zoo picked up .10" and the west side had some reports of a quick .15". By time you got to Mandarin and the beaches the amounts were .05" or less.

The good news is that it is March and these cold spells simply do not last long. We can put away the sweatshirts by Tuesday afternoon as temperatures recover to near 70 inland. It will be a little cooler at the beaches. Wednesday have your shorts handy as we flirt with 80 degrees. The cause of all this topsy-turvy weather is an active jet stream that is energized across the country due to big temperature differences we normally see from north to south this time of year. Some of these higher winds will continue to be mixed down to the surface and with breezy conditions expected for much of this week we will have to watch the fire situation closely.

Already this morning there were accidents along Interstate 95 that were blamed by smoke mixing with fog in Central Florida. In the past 24 days we have had a meager .06" of rain. This compares to the previous 24 days when we were all ready to build an arc. We had an incredible 7.77" of rain. Unfortunately this drier period of weather looks like it will continue with rain amounts on Wednesday night and Thursday morning looking scattered which means the extreme drought conditions will continue to expand along with the fire danger. Notice the extreme drought is back after it disappearing from our drought map for a few weeks after our big rains. Stay safe and make sure to follow all burn bans.

Make sure to check back on the blog for more on some incredible sights to check out in the sky. I will show a star lapse you will not want to miss tonight at 11 p.m. Tomorrow's blog question will deal with the SUPER MOON. See you soon. Take care.