Mike Prangley's Weather Blog

Smoke Gives New Meaning to January's Crisp Return!

2012-01-28T13:09:00.005-05:00

Saturday, January 28, 2012

January has returned today in a big way with temperatures at least closer to normal. We should have highs in the middle 60s and forecast highs will be in the middle 60s beaches to near 70 inland. Many were looking forward to a nice walk in the crisp, winter air today but unfortunately numerous reports of smoke have filtered in from Orange Park to Green Cove Springs and Asbury Park. The DOT traffic cam tells the picture out on the west side. Our normally crystal clear Florida air in this type of weather pattern has turned hazy causing the air quality to dip into the moderate range for our entire viewing area which means those with respiratory ailments can go outside but avoid any activity with prolonged physical exertion. The light northwest wind will likely cause the stench all the way to the beach.

If there is any good news it is the smoke is not being caused by any large wildfires that would endanger anybody but by several controlled burns in the interior portions of Florida as you see above. The big one took place on Thursday when 2,100 acres were burned in the Osceola National Forest in Baker County. How long will it last? The wind will likely pick up out of the north and northeast on Sunday and it will help disperse the smoke. You can thank an Alberta Clipper for some fresher air by late tonight. Take a look at it bringing a nice light frosting of snow to sections of the Midwest.

This time of year we are usually not thanking these clippers that originate in Alberta, Canada and thus their name. They usually pack quite a punch and in the wake of these weather players we brace for hard freezes. This time around we do have one saving grace and that is the snow pack. If you look on the graphic above the real deep snow pack is still located where you see the purple shading. This means it will get colder with even some hats and gloves weather by Monday morning but will not have the brutal cold that we normally see. The cold air holds together and does not modify as quickly when it has snow cover to work with. Snow breeds snow and cold air! When does the colder air arrive?

The cold front above should move through right about midnight. So expect the wind to pick up and wind chills near freezing by morning! Sunday will be a true January day with highs struggling to get in the lower 60s with some coastal areas especially in Georgia only in the upper 50s. What is interesting about this pattern is the warmest winter in the United States for many areas in 78 years may turn cold in February. I say this because Alaska is having its coldest winter since 1972 in Fairbanks where I showed a breath-taking temperature of -47 degrees on Good Morning Jacksonville this morning.

Some maps have chunks of this cold air breaking off and having a better chance of moving into the lower 48 including Florida. What is happening is the main storm track is changing. The pipeline of storms that have been pounding the Pacific Northwest are taking a turn farther north! This should dislodge some cold air and help set up a deeper trough along the East Coast. One map has a few flurries to near Charleston by February 6th! Make sure to download our free weather app at FCN WX! I updated our exclusive 10 day forecast to show what I am thinking. If you do not have a smart phone I have you covered here on the blog, check it out!

Even better is we have three days with rain chances as the pattern favors stronger fronts with more moisture! Make sure to tune in tonight at 6, 6:30, and 11 p.m. and I will have all the February Frenzy details. I also do tons of weather video updates throughout the weekend at http://www.firstcoastnews.com/weather/default.aspx. I also have details on our weather video of a snow day for some kids in St. Johns County. You stay warm and I will see you soon!

Springtime Pattern Bringing Strong Storms By Late Tonight

2012-01-26T21:34:00.001-05:00

Thursday, January 26, 2012

Great to be back with you! It is an exciting time at First Coast News not just with your only two minute advantage but with our new state of the art HD Weather Graphics. You deserve the best! I have been busy building away and will give you a taste of what you can expect when you tune in! Here are some graphics telling the weather story on our Thursday evening!

Notice the storm reports of a funnel cloud near Panama City that luckily did not move ashore as a tornado and the newest data as of 9 p.m. has another tree down on a house in Tallahassee from a possible tornado.
When temperatures are running 3 months ahead of schedule something had to give.

Tonight, a cold front will collide with our warm, tropical air mass and we will have to watch for some large hail, gusty wind, and even an isolated tornado especially from near Lake City to Waycross. These areas could start to see things go downhill by 11 p.m. There could be another area to our south from Marion into Putnam County where a strong storm could hold together. This would be in the 4 a.m. to 8 a.m. time frame. This is a good reminder severe weather can occur any time of year and that our severe weather season is officially less than a week away. Here is the latest risk area from the Storm Prediction Center. The yellow shading shows the areas of most concern. Below you see the storm tracks.

You can see the big wall of storms to our west with some tops between 20,000 and 30,000 feet. The tornado watch will likely not be extended east as this line moves into a more stable environment.

Closer to the I-95 corridor and Jacksonville it looks like we could have a rumble of thunder with some needed showers toward morning but unfortunately rain amounts will be at a quarter-inch or less. This weekend still looks bright but it will be brisk at times with temperatures more seasonable for this time of year. The beaches may struggle just to reach 60 on Sunday! Make sure to stay tuned for team coverage on tonight's line of thunderstorms.

First Full Moon of 2012 May Be Once in a Blue Moon

2012-01-08T23:59:00.002-05:00

What a moon set this morning and it is not even a full moon, but tonight we have a moonrise at 5:23 p.m. and with a foggy, smoky atmosphere developing the moon may in fact look blue especially those areas that have had the thicker smoke near the Olive Fire in Putnam County. The smoke particles are just the right size to scatter the moonlight making it appear blue. Now the conventional definitions of a blue moon have nothing to do with it being blue but rather a blue moon being the second full moon in a month, which will not happen until late August or the third full moon of four full moons in a season like we saw back in September of 2010. So tonight we will keep an eye to the sky for a blue moon but also be very careful of fog and smoke.

Developing...

Foggy to Fantasy Pattern Gives Way to Reality Check as La Nina Weakens

2012-01-07T12:10:00.004-05:00

Saturday, January 7, 2012

What a rude awakening due to a mix of fog and smoke causing near zero visibility in Putnam County. Even here downtown I snapped a picture of what looks more like San Francisco than Jacksonville, Florida. The good news is the fog will lift by late morning and the sunshine will win out. One of the drawbacks of having temperatures so much above normal this time of year is if you have clear skies it does not take much for the air to cool to its saturation point with our long nights, especially with all the real cold, dry polar air located over a thousand miles from home. But since we have a warm, tropical high pressure in control once the fog lifts we warm up in a hurry. Today expect highs to have no trouble reaching back up near 70 degrees. This is fantasy land for this time of year because climatologically our coldest week for average highs is this week! Amazing! The southern jet stream which is in charge of our Disney weather also sent us a few showers this morning but behind a weak upper-level disturbance drier air should wrap in and we will have plenty of liquid sunshine to enjoy. Check out the beaches confirming the forecast!

The surf will have some nice smooth one to two foot sets to enjoy! But it is not all a walk on the beach! The overall pattern is showing signs of change. The La Nina or below average ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific is now weakening. The temperatures are warming. This is the same La Nina that has brought us awful drought conditions and a fire season that never truly ended in 2010 into 2011. So good riddance La Nina. If this trend continues we can expect an increase in not only rain but an increase in cold fronts from the North. So instead of warm, dry, warm, dry, light shower, rinse, repeat....we could have a potpourri of weather. In fact we have showers and maybe even some thunderstorms are back in your seven day forecast Wednesday. This may be followed by a big chill with highs in the 50s on Friday, a nor'easter next Saturday and then freezing weather. Your weather team will have much more than a two minute advantage, how about a two month advantage! Here is the global pattern change below!

The big feature in all this is the ocean temperatures are starting to warm and this will ease the La Nina impact. Notice the jet stream forms more of a broad trough across the country and the storm track is closer to home. This means winter has not been cancelled. But keep in mind I am still favoring overall temperatures to remain above average the rest of the winter. The big change will be an increase in rainfall for us! Our friends up north will not be shut out in the snow department and this includes Maryland, Virginia, and Indiana. Texas will also receive needed rain after their driest year on record. So we are heading in the right direction.

I will talk more about drought and wildfire relief here on the blog over the weekend so make sure to check back. It is good to be back and I am very grateful I got to spend a ton of time with my family over the holidays and yes I even cleaned out the garage! Now buckle up, 2012 is looking interesting weatherwise and otherwise and it is an honor to keep you ahead of whatever nature dishes out! Tonight be careful of the fog, that is for sure! Be safe!

No Frightful Weather but Winter Blows Back in with a Vengeance!

2011-12-27T14:10:00.007-05:00

December 27, 2011

Frightful weather arrives with a flurry or 2! That was the headline in last year's local newspaper. One year later I am outside running in my shorts. I want to thank my daughter Lauren for the great picture she took. My legs are more sore from playing our new Smurfs Dance Party game Santa brought her for the Wii. Maybe it will make me stronger for the National Breast Cancer Marathon which is now only 47 days away and I will finally be the great dancer I could have always have been! I cannot wait! Before I dance more to Who Let the Smurfs Out I wanted to make sure you knew no severe weather is coming our way! I talked about at least the potential over the holiday weekend.

Have no fear the CAPE is here! This stands for Convective Available Potential Energy. In other words, it is the amount of energy the atmosphere has to work with to form thunderstorms. The higher the number the better the chance of not only boom booms but severe weather. Notice the green shading I usually like to see over us when I forecast thunder is just not happening. What I am more impressed with is the southwest wind over us at 36,000 feet howling at 135 mph! This jet could still whip up a few strong storms over the Carolinas today, but not here. What it will do is bring us a windy late afternoon and evening with gusts of 30 to 40 mph possible. Please get here recycling man....hurry!!! Make sure the small dogs are leashed and the babies secure because this wind will blow with gusto!

Our next concern will be the pets and plants. Notice my Dad's flourishing garden in Mandarin that gave all the Christmas lights some competition. Yes, if you ever get lost going to the Prangleys' house just look for the house with all the flowers. His green thumb was handed down from his Dad and I am hoping like the dancing thing that I am a late bloomer and my garden eventually looks at least half this good! This was our ninth day in a row above normal today and we have not had a freeze so far in December which is very unusual. The last December to have no freezes was way back in 1994. So will we keep the freeze-less streak alive?

Yes! We have high pressure building in which usually does the deed this time of year but it is location, location, location. This high pressure originates from the Pacific Ocean not a from the Northwest Territories. Some models also show a few clouds moving in late Wednesday night and again Thursday night which would also keep us from seeing ideal radiational cooling. This high pressure is not the typical December fair weather freezer, but we should still make sure our pets have a warm spot along with bringing in the sensitive plants.

Look for frosty conditions away from the river and ocean for Thursday and Friday mornings with lows in the middle 30s at the airport and for places like Mandarin and close to the river and ocean, the upper 30s and lower 40s seem more reasonable. Our warm Spring honeymoon is coming to an end as we will have below average temperatures on Wednesday reaching only near 60! To me this still feels great outside after going through winter's in Vermont and Minnesota. I am still sure your out of town guests from the North will not mind either!

Now the question on everybody's mind is how is our last weekend of 2011 looking? I am giving it my seal of approval! It looks outstanding with temperatures back in the 70s and I still like my warmer middle 70s to near 80 by New Year's Day. But this is not an easy forecast as we head into 2012. The European Model has gone wild! You see the big blue over the southeast next week, while the other model is showing mainly warm oranges taking up much of the country. The European has highs here only in the 30s with flurries all the way to North Florida and South Georgia by next Tuesday. The other models like us cooling down to more seasonable levels with lows in the 30s and highs in the 60s.

Now which one is right? As much as this hurts to say....the European is out to lunch I think is still on Christmas break. There are no teleconnections to support this. The North Atlantic pressures remain low helping to trap the Arctic air over the polar bears and the Pacific Northwest also is showing no signs of strong high pressure building in. This would not allow a repeat of last year to form in our viewing area like last year, not even close. But I will keep you updated and we at least have memories. Check out last year! You see there was snow place like home with the surreal scene full of flakes and sago palms!

Okay now I am still all fired up about one of the maps still showing snow over us next week, even if it is a snow dream. I will be back soon to verify snow is not coming and we will also have an update on winter's return. Have a great evening! Back to the fam and dancing! Take care and don't blow away!

Heavy Brief Gully Washers Moving North!

2011-12-25T12:58:00.001-05:00

December 25, 2011

Merry Christmas! What a day already. I did not get much sleep but it is a good tired and my kids and family are happy. That is all that really matters. Nature has even made this day exciting for me. Notice the towering clouds at sunrise. This looks like a March scene! I cannot totally rule out a few heavy gully washers today especially from I-95 east. They will not last long but be careful. I want everybody to get to Grandma's house safely. It still looks plenty warm today with highs in the lower to middle 70s. Bobbie in Keystone Heights has already reported a high of 75!

You can see our latest rainfall estimates verifying some of those downpours early this afternoon. What is interesting is the wind is blowing northeast up to 1,500 feet and then it veers to south and eventually southwest by time you head up to 10,000 feet. This is causing the air to pile up and converge. We also have upper-level spin moving northward enhancing our lift. This mean rainfall amounts could hit a quick .25" in only about 10 to 20 minutes. Now that is impressive whenever you are talking rain rates over 4 inches an hour. It is even a bit humid outside. I cannot rule out a brief rumble of thunder but I would think that with the heavier widespread rain will stay offshore.

How about the cookouts? Well keep those plans! I think the brief downpours impacting about 30% of us will diminish by 4 p.m. over North Florida and early evening in Georgia as our upper support lifts north and northeast. It is great to see all the kids out in the neighborhood trying out their new scooters, bikes, and even go-carts. Have a great rest of your day and I look forward to seeing you tonight at 11 p.m. We will talk about a real soaker on the way and I will tell you why you may be able to wear some of those new holiday sweaters later this week! Now off to Mom and Dad's for dinner!

A Merry Warm Christmas! More Flowers than Showers

2011-12-24T23:56:00.001-05:00

Merry Christmas! We have plenty to be thankful for and I am blessed many times over with three lovely daughters. You see they are all smiles after partaking in the Prangley family tradition of opening up the pajamas the night before Christmas. Lauren even got a barbie doll bonus since she was so good this year and Megan and Abbey loved their new slippers. We can also be thankful for the weather. A weak nor'easter falls apart on our Christmas Day and nature sends us more flowers than showers.

I only expect 10% coverage of isolated rain showers along the coast that should be brief at best. Highs will be back in the lower to middle 70s with upper 70s possible well inland. The three models I trust all came in tonight with .03" or less which means even if this were all snow it would not be enough to stick. Now the big storm to watch is the Gulf low pressure bringing drought relief to Texas. This could spin up our way late Monday Night into Tuesday. I cannot rule out a strong storm or two with the strong southern jet stream dominating our weather. Stay tuned for your two minute advantage and more details here on the blog. But for now it is all about family! All the best and God bless! I will see you tonight at 11 p.m.

What a Difference 22 Years Makes! Freak Snow to Liquid Snow!

2011-12-23T20:18:00.004-05:00

Friday, December 23, 2011

Do you remember where you were 22 years ago today? It is the anniversary of the freak snow/ice storm that shut down all our bridges in Jacksonville for 3 days. You could only cross the mighty St. Johns by foot. It was the White Christmas of 1989 but some folks said it was not a dream come true and had to wait until up to a week after Christmas to open all their presents since many were stranded for days! But most folks loved it and it did not matter if you were 4 years old or 80....many folks went out and played in a snowfall which for many was the first and biggest snow they had ever seen.

This year 1989 could not be further from our minds! The weather is like from another planet! We are stranded in what feels like a tropical paradise. St. Augustine hit 82 degrees along with most of the area south of the Airport! To do this on back to back days this time of year is rare! We have been in a mid-April weather pattern and many areas around the country will have their brownest Christmas since the late 1990s. 2011 will go down as the year of extreme weather and it might as well go out with a bang!

Here at home we are talking liquid snow in the forecast or rain! But it should not keep you from enjoying the Holly Jolly Trolley in St. Augustine or from catching up on shopping! Tonight we will just have a few splash and dash showers. They will only last a few minutes and then move on! Bizarre! This is a Spring pattern. There is a cold front moving through but it is not living up to its name and has very little moisture to work with. Temperatures behind it are still above average for this time of year. Notice Atlanta this evening is still a good 5 to 8 degrees above average. But this sorry excuse for a front will cool us down and bring our temperatures back down to earth and at least make it feel more like Christmas Weekend. Expect highs closer to 70.

The big question is what about the rain. Well we know it is a very weak front but it is turning our wind off the cooler ocean. This is the time of year where nor'easter can develop in a hurry and turn a decent forecast into a disaster. While I do not see that happening this weekend, I do see at least a few coastal showers moving back in by Christmas Day but amounts should once again be light and you can still get outside and the kids can still get outside and try out their new scooters or bikes.

I will make sure to check in with you over Christmas weekend and post updates that is for sure. But suffice it to say I see good flying weather for Comet and Dasher and a much bigger rain event will hold off until Tuesday of next week! Stay tuned and go do something holiday-ish. I am going outside to build a snowman after receiving an early Christmas present. Details on the way! God bless!

Still on the Nice List at Home, But Nasty Storms North

2011-12-22T16:46:00.000-05:00

December 22, 2011

Hello winter! This looks more like Spring and could be used in a Florida tourism commerical. You see Ridge and Dixie enjoying some great fishing weather! Incredible is the weather word of the day. Our temperatures reached record levels in some areas with highs of 82 in Waycross. In Jacksonville we officially hit a high of 79 which is something we normally would see in the middle of April! So where is winter? Let's take a look!

Winter? Really nature! This is like a Spring front with severe weather breaking out from Alabama and western Florida through Atlanta and the Carolinas. So while we are nice at home if you have Uncle Johnny and Aunt Peggy coming into town there may be a few travel delays. This same front will give us a chance of a pop up shower or storm by late Friday but most of its upper support will have lifted well north. So I am not expecting severe weather. It will be warm once again with highs near 80.

It is so warm that there are just a few rain showers in the snow belt of the Northeast! I am not quite sure I have ever seen this for this time of year. I did find winter as we head into 2012! I see a cold shot that could bring us a real freeze and next week maybe a brief taste of December. But for this big Christmas weekend, this Spring front will die out as it moves south with mild air behind it! Expect more 70s and very low chances of rain. Christmas we could be back in the middle 70s and you give some of those outdoor presents a workout.

Warm Air Wins and Chilly Rain Stays North

2011-12-21T16:41:00.000-05:00

Is it really December? Well you can tell if you have been out shopping today like me. I would still call it a procrastinator's delight. There is nothing worse than soggy presents before they are wrapped or having to walk a long way to your parking spot in bitter cold wind chills. We have nothing like that weatherwise to contend with. But, I did snap a shot of the 22 degree halo over us this afternoon. This was caused by sunlight being refracted twice by hexagonal ice crystals or snow flakes at about 30,000 feet. This is probably as close as we will get to a White Christmas because I still think we could challenge record highs near 80 over the next couple days. A few areas mainly in southeast Georgia had a few rain showers today but most of us stayed dry and this trend will continue not only tonight but through the next several days.

Temperatures right now in Green Bay are near 40 with no snow on the ground. It could be their first brown Christmas since 2006. This is significant for us because the polar air that usually pushes fronts south of us this time of year is nowhere to be found. So we have a stalled front to our north as a result and it is not moving our way anytime soon.

You see this is not an easy forecast. Not far from home it is raining with even some embedded thunder. We will continue to have waves of showers at times mainly over Georgia. Our next chance will be Friday night and early Saturday. Then another area low pressure will form along our stalled boundary and bring more rain chances Christmas Day. Right now the front look like it will be north of Jacksonville on Christmas. This would mean Georgia would have the better chance of rain. Areas near Alma may only be in the lower 60s with a soggy afternoon with areas from Jacksonville south will be well into the 70s once again and mainly dry. So you can throw around the new football outside!

I do think this front will get a better push over us by Monday and Tuesday. That is when the heavier downpours will likely occur. Until then look for the clouds and unsually warm weather to continue. If you are traveling it does not look bad at all with the least amount of snow cover for this time of year since 2004 over the United States and no big snow or ice storms expected. Just be careful of heavier bands of rain the farther north you travel. Now off to do the big shows! See you soon.

Colorado Skies & Bright Autumn Skies & Leaves

2011-12-18T23:56:00.006-05:00

Sunday, December 18, 2011

Yes, we do have real autumn weather in Florida. I know 13 of 17 days so far this month have been above normal but today nature finally gave us the weather many of us moved to Florida for! This is not a scene from Vermont. I actually snapped this picture in downtown Jacksonville. Believe it or not the deciduous trees that we do have usually peak right around the middle of December and this year the trees are right on cue! It is not by any means a New England scene but for Florida we are looking pretty terrific! It was a beautiful day! We had what I call Colorado blue skies. Now of course we do not have mountains here but it was so crystal clear you could almost see forever like you would if you were on a summit. It was one of those days I felt I could run forever and I had to force myself to turn around on my run. I lost track at mile 10. Thank you nature! I was certainly running on sunshine.

It was perfect out today with highs in the lower to middle 60s but do not let that fool you. Tonight once the sun sets watch out! I expect patchy frost to be more widespread than last night especially west of highway 301 . Even the airport could get in on the frost along with Hilliard. Even though you see I am forecasting a low of 37, you really want to subtract five degrees to get the ground temperature. Temperatures are measured about six feet high and remember the earth cools from the ground up. This means it will be 32 on the ground which is cold enough for frost to form. I am expecting ideal radiational cooling with clear skies and a light wind as the high pressure bringing in this December chill settles in.

Tonight, I have issued a hot chocolate advisory which means you will need to bundle up in layers if you are checking out the many beautiful luminary displays or if your going out to look at holiday lights. Temperatures by 8 p.m. will only be in the middle to upper 40s. The hot chocolate advisory will continue into Monday morning before we go back to our familiar warm December pattern. This cold air does not have much staying power because most of the country lacks snow cover and the main jet stream continues to detour well to the north of Florida acting as a huge barrier to any cold that will try to hold.

I will be back here on the blog on Monday with your ten day outlook almost into New Years! Will Santa need his shorts, umbrellas, or maybe a lightning rod. It does look like a wild weather week which could even include record highs. Take care and I will be back soon!

Candy Cane Weather Before Decem"brrrr"s Return

2011-12-17T11:14:00.007-05:00

Saturday, December 17, 2011

The California effect moved in yesterday afternoon with a marine layer full of clouds. Our ocean has cooled enough and it does not take much for a warm, tropical wind to condense into clouds. This marine layer moved in with our southeast flow. This is one of the reasons we can turn from sunny to cloudy pretty quickly this time of year. But the good news is the ocean flow is cut off and our Florida sunshine returns in a big way this afternoon!

What a beautiful sunrise captured by Greg at St. Simons Island this morning as a cold front was passing through the area. The Golden Isles will live up to their name today. This cold front will help mix in a drier land breeze from the northwest providing nice bright skies and highs back in the lower to middle 70s with the warmer spots being at the beach! There is some chilly air behind it but it will not arrive until tonight and Sunday. Do not expect any rain as all the upper support is located several hundred miles north of our area.

It may not feel like Christmas here at home but it is looking like it. This is perfect weather to make candy canes. This is what I call candy cane weather since we have all been spoiled rotten so far this December. Eden Kendall shared all the fun this morning with us on Good Morning Jacksonville. If you are looking for something fun to do with the kids today head over to Sweet Peete's and join in on all the holiday fun! Those kids did a great job making candy canes! Speaking of the holidays, a lot of folks asked me where they need to go to see a White Christmas.

Last year I remember telling folks it would be as close to home as the Georgia Mountains. This year a plane ticket will be needed. You can go visit one of my favorite places which is the Northeast Kingdom of Vermont or the Western Great Lakes and if not I am sure a bed and breakfast in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan will be better than a post card! Here is my updated White Christmas map!

This is an amazing turn-around from one year ago. But at least it will be much better for travelers and you can arrive at Grandma's house safely! Now how about here at home? A lot of folks have visitors from up north that want to get out of the cold! Well it looks like their Christmas gift is taken care of courtesy of nature!

This is the forecast I have stuck by since December 1st, although I added in a better chance of rain and if the front hits just right maybe a thunderstorm or two to track on your only Live Doppler Radar. Tonight at 6, 6:30, and 11 we will talk more about where winter has gone and December making a one day return on our Sunday. I do think interior areas will see at least some patchy frost. So dust off the jackets for tonight and Sunday.

If you are going to the Nights of Lights in St. Augustine temperatures will quickly fall through the 50s this evening. Make sure to look east and make a wish with a loved one. The Geminid meteor shower continues in the east. Watch for dazzling displays of dust coming from the twin stars of Gemini and streaking by Taurus which is close by Gemini to the upper right followed by Jupiter almost overhead this evening. Get out and enjoy the show. This meteor shower officially lasts through the 20th and is known for long, bright yellow trails! I expect at least 10 shooting stars per hour. Have a great day and make sure to slow down and enjoy the weather. I will see you soon!

Mackeral Skies to Blue Skies and Sheets of Hope!

2011-12-15T13:12:00.002-05:00

December 15, 2011

Please grab a sheet from your closet. Tell everybody at work! Tomorrow is SHEETS OF HOPE. We're collecting sheets, blankets and clothes for the homeless at City Rescue Mission. Drop off from 5am to 7:30pm outside Town Center (near Target) and Orange Park Mall (near Sears). The need is greater this year than ever before and with our coldest weather still on the way including a frost back in the forecast this weekend we need your help. Thanks, everybody!

This morning we had fog and a few altocumulus clouds out there and the sky looked "fishy". The old weather proverb says, "mackeral sky mackeral sky not long wet nor dry." This time I do not think it will hold true, but what those mid-level clouds were telling us this morning is that a weekend cold front is on the way and ahead of it even warmer weather!

This afternoon we will go from mackeral skies to blue skies and it will be very warm and pleasant with highs in the middle to upper 70s inland to near 70 at the beaches. On Friday we will still be running 10 to 15 degrees above average as our warmer spots could push 80 by tomorrow afternoon! The big news is that we could go from bathing suits weather to a frosty start by Sunday morning so make sure to join our weather team for these big changes.

We have more beautiful skies to enjoy this evening and the bright star in the east is Venus. Get out there and enjoy! Last night we once again got great viewer feedback on the meteor shower and international space station. Thanks for the nice e-mails and keep in touch. Now I am off to cut more videos you can check out on http://www.firstcoastnews.com/. Take care and have a great day!

More Dazzling Skylights Tonight & Brighter Days Are Here to Stay

2011-12-14T16:37:00.006-05:00

Wednesday, December 14, 2011

Sunny days are here again! I was up before 6 a.m. looking for shooting stars and saw one in the clear eastern sky! I made a wish of course and I was not the only one. I want to thank Dan for sending our weather team this note.

"This morning at 5:30 my wife and I took the dog out for a walk. We live in the Marietta area on the Westside. During our walk I managed to see two "shooting stars" looking west, but she is assured that it was probably just "light in my eyes". Is it a time for meteor showers now, or is my wife right? They were fast moving, but bright and had an arc to them with a tail."

Even though the meteor shower peaked last night we can once again enjoy shooting stars tonight! Look east before our moonrise just after 9 p.m. and for the early bird runners and risers like me another good time would be between 5 and 6 a.m. Send in more notes and pictures if you can so I can share.
If that is not exciting enough the international space station will be making a five minute appearance in the southern sky for five minutes beginning at 6:17 p.m. If you have never seen it before it will look like the space shuttle fly-over only brighter! It looks like a slow-moving shooting star without all the blinking and flashing. It will be a beautiful continuous beam of light.

What a beautiful day here at home with gorgeous sunshine as forecasted and not one complaint to the weather center. Despite a soggy day across much of the Midwest and a few thunderstorms and needed rain for Texas the country as a whole is finally experiencing some tame weather! This December to remember for a lack of winter weather was a much needed break. Check out the latest data from the National Climatic Data Center! It will be the known as the year of the billion dollar disasters.
According to NCDC, the twelve billion dollar disasters include:

1. Texas, New Mexico and Arizona Wildfires, Spring-Fall, 2011: Greater than $1.0 billion
2. Hurricane Irene, August 20-29, 2011: Great than $7.3 billion
3. Upper Midwest Flooding, Summer, 2011:
Missouri River: Greater than $2.0 billion
Canadian Prairies: Greater than $1.0 billion
4. Mississippi River Flooding, Spring-Summer, 2011: Between $3.0 and $4.0 billion
5. Southern Plains/Southwest Drought, Heatwave, & Wildfires, Spring-Fall, 2011: Near $10.0 billion
6. Midwest/Southeast Tornadoes and Severe Weather, June 18-22, 2011: Greater than $1.3 billion
7. Midwest/Southeast Tornadoes, May 22-27, 2011: Greater than $9.1 billion
8. Southeast/Ohio Valley/Midwest Tornadoes, April 25-30, 2011: Greater than $10.2 billion
9. Midwest/Southeast Tornadoes, April 14-16, 2011: Greater than $2.1 billion
10. Southeast/Midwest Tornadoes, April 8-11, 2011: Greater than $2.2 billion
11. Midwest/Southeast Tornadoes, April 4-5, 2011: Greater than $2.8 billion
12. Groundhog Day Blizzard, January 29-February 3, 2011: Greater than $1.8 billion

I know we had the never-ending fire season in Florida that choked us for a few weeks and the drought that continues but nature really did let us off easy and we have many blessings to count. Today's latest model run has two major models flipping our temperatures to chilly for Christmas weekend but they may flip-flop a few more times before then. They will have trouble seeing the pattern change which I think will not really hit home until New Years Weekend. But we will see. If they are right it may mean we will have a frosty Christmas morning and then warm up into the 60s during the afternoon. But for now I will stick to my forecast of 70s.

Much of the country will have a brown Christmas as you see above. The map shows where there will be one inch of snow or more on Christmas morning. Here in Florida I think we call this year a green Christmas. Another reason I think the models are too fast with the real polar intrusion is the North Atlantic Oscillation does not flip negative until just after Christmas and there usually is a lag time in the weather pattern for change to take hold. But I think the graph below does show a better chance of real winter cold blasts and even snows farther north by New Years. Check out the change!

That is not all! In keeping with today's brighter days ahead theme keep in mind we have now gained a minute of daylight in the evening! Our new sunset is at 5:27 p.m. Now we will still lose more daylight in the morning than gained in the evening until our shortest day of the year on December 21st. But we are gaining about a minute of evening daylight on average every two days from now until the end of the month. It will not be long before we are back out golfing and gardening in the evenings.

Have a great evening. I am taking my daughters to Mom and Dads for a special dinner and we are going to go out looking at more Christmas lights. We love the musical ones, like the one above we found on Loretto Road. Yes it has a singing pumpkin, lots of Elvis music and even Santa. I do not want to forget the beautiful nativity as well! Make sure to drop off non-perishables for the Mandarin food bank. Take care now it is off for some fun...remember we look south and east this evening and early tomorrow morning. Send in some pictures. Thanks!

Bye Bye Clouds and Hello Meteor Shower

2011-12-13T17:24:00.007-05:00

Tuesday December 13, 2011

It is the sunshine state but the little secret is out! We do have cloudy days and if there is a so-called cloudy season it is peaking right about now. It begins in early December and continues through early January. We have 14 cloudy days in December which ranks first for our cloudiest month. We also receive the lowest percentage of our possible sunshine in December which is at 54%. Now this would still be pleasant for folks used to the clouds in the Northeast and Midwest but for Florida residents spoiled rotten by sunshine through much of the year it is a big deal!

So today the sun finally came out for really the first time since in almost 100 hours here in St. Johns County and I had to snap a picture of it! It was right as the sun was setting but better late than never and I am ready for a good run now. Another reason I am fired up is that we have a meteor shower tonight and the timing is looking good as most of the area will be mostly clear at least through 11 p.m. before the clouds return in the form of fog once again.

It is the Geminid meteor shower! This meteor shower is known for extra bright shooting stars and even earth-grazers that seem to be close enough for you to reach out and grab. Look east and you will want to go out early. I am thinking the best viewing will be before 8:30 p.m. tonight. We have a bright moonrise at 8:33 p.m. and with it still 88% full it will certainly be tough to see any shooting stars thereafter. So get out while you can. Temperatures will be in the 50s and with those strong nor'easter gusts gone it will feel even better.

The good news is even more sunshine is expected tomorrow and with no strong fronts or nor'easters on the horizon I do think our cloudy season is going on recess through the upcoming weekend! Make those tee times now golfers. Expect temperatures to warm nicely into the 70s.

Our Christmas outlook which I have been updating since the calendar turned to December has not changed. I still like above average temperatures in the 70s. This years White Christmas will be far from home. You will have to go to the Rockies out West, the Dakotas and northern Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan. In the Northeast I think far northern New England will not have to dream of a White Christmas but the Mid-Atlantic and much of southern New England have very low chances of any snow cover. You will have to go into the Great Lakes snow belt from Watertown to Buffalo to have at least a 50% chance. This is a far cry from last year and 1989 when we were snowed in here in Florida for 3 days! I will keep you updated!

There is an arctic air mass that may drop into the lower 48 as we head toward New Years! Enjoy the shooting stars tonight and our much brighter pattern moving in for the rest of the week. Just be careful of late night and early morning fog.

Nor'easter Delivers Badly Needed Rain! Small Hail on the West Side!

2011-12-12T13:18:00.001-05:00

Monday, December 12, 2011

We said bring it on nature! Nature has delivered! The picture above shows us how powerful this nor'easter has become. We tracked a few thunderstorms in off the ocean in our volatile atmosphere late last night and early this morning and even though no severe weather was reported we did have pea-size hail at I-295 and Blanding. Thanks for sending this great shot in Jesse! Even better most areas have received the one to two inches of rain. But I do have reports in the two to four inch range where there was thunder and even a report closer to five inches in Flagler County. Now we are talking real drought relief!

Radar rain estimates are lighting the maps up nicely! Where you see the green hues that is our widespread one to two inches of rain. Notice the widespread two to four inches in the yellow and orange shading especially east of I-95 in St. Johns and Flagler Counties. This includes over 3.5 inches in St. Augustine! WOW! Also Ware and Clinch Counties in southeast Georgia got in on some of the nice bright yellows! The purple shading near the Gulf Stream is an incredible 12" of rain. Our nor'easter to remember or what I have called the full moon nor'easter of 2011 should start winding down this afternoon. Rain will be out of here before the late day and evening rush hour but still be careful out on the roads. There is still a lot of ponding of water being reported even though our flood advisories will be allowed to expire. There also have been numerous accidents. I will check back with you later this afternoon on specific rain amounts! Be safe and take care so you can enjoy some night bright moonlight tonight!! It has been awhile. I also have your Christmas forecast update! See you soon.

A Day of Hope on the Field and Off! Let Hope Rain!

2011-12-11T23:58:00.004-05:00

Sunday, December 11, 2011

What a wonderful day! The Jags rout the Bucs and you see there was more confetti flying in the stands than rain at least until the end of the third quarter. My section was prepared. We had the two minute advantage weather app and got those ponchos out well before the heavier showers blew through with gusto! There are advantages to having a live doppler radar and like in sports every minute counts. I got back to the station nice and dry and was happy to still have my voice for the newscasts. It is not every day you see any football team score 28 points in one quarter. It was certainly the best the home team has played this season and maybe the best quarter in a few years. It gives all of us fans lots of hope! It took a lot of sting out of those chilly nor'easter breezes of 20-30 mph. Go Jags!

Speaking of hope we have a lot of it in the weather department. We have our heaviest rain on the way in at least two months. This is a huge forecast especially when you have been in a drought since 2010 and still need 6 to 10 inches of rain to catch up!

I have stuck by my forecast for one to two inches of rain for not just the beaches but most areas before all is said and done. Yes, I am paranoid about this forecast because our climate here has been more like a desert than a tropical paradise for so long. The models have been going back and forth between heavy rain and light rain amounts but they are just guides. I think with a strong southern jet stream teaming up with our nor'easter the sky is the limit! We will even have a nice upper-level disturbance form and enhance the lift. We literally have moisture blowing in from all directions and levels converging right over us.

This is a heavy rain signature. So let hope rain! We can celebrate but make sure to be extra careful during the morning commute because it does look very messy. We cannot even rule out a thunderstorm and if you get under one of those storms I am not expecting severe weather but generous rain amounts from 2 to 4 inches in total!

I will have your rain totals and updated Christmas outlook on Monday afternoon! Will it still be warm or a green Christmas? Or will Dan Hicken get his snow!! See you soon. Be careful!

Chilly Breezes Return Ahead of Major Nor'easter!

2011-12-10T11:54:00.003-05:00

Saturday, December 10, 2011

We missed out on an unusual lunar eclipse this morning. There were too many clouds and it took place after our sunrise. But out in Colorado spaceweather.com captured it beautifully for us right before the earth's shadow covered the entire moon. What was unusual about this eclipse was that folks in western North America got to see the eclipsed crimson red moon at the same time that a fiery red sunrise was taking place. This picture about covers our skylights here at home today since we will be stuck in stubborn cloudiness throughout the day thanks to a cold front that continues to push through the area.

The good news is we will not have to cancel any plans. The few sprinkles around this morning will move well offshore by this afternoon. The chilly breezes will be the big story with highs struggling into the lower 60s. At least it is starting to look and feel like the holidays so make sure to feed off that holiday spirit. That is exactly what we were doing this morning on Good Morning Jacksonville with our wonderful guests from the Seasons in the house, Ready Set Cupcakes, Eden Kendall at the Kids party at the Prime Osborn, great gift ideas from PromotionalCodes.com and we had Ringling Brothers talking about their Dragon Circus coming to town in January. I put on the red Rudolph nose as you see and Len Kiese was all smiles as usual. It will not be the prettiest of day but we should not be complaining because most of the country is in a deep freeze with our Indiana friends in Lafayette reporting a low of 12 degrees! There will be some payback though because the warmer temperatures in Florida compared to the rest of the country is going to allow a second weather system to develop this weekend and it we will go from chilly to soggy.

Now this model may be a little robust on rain amounts but even if it is I do think many areas in our coastal counties will see at least an inch of rain which would make this the strongest nor'easter here at home in two months. The lowest rain total I could find on the several different models just into First Coast News is .62" which I think is underdone. You have to go way back to October 10th to find the last time we were socked with a soaking rain over one inch in Jacksonville. This nor'easter has some extra upper-level support to help crank it up so I do not expect it to fizzle like our last few nor'easters and areas well inland will even see some rain. To say we need rain is an understatement. We have had four consecutive months of below normal rainfall and so far in December we are looking like we are trying to go for five in a row. This dubious streak has reinforced our drought conditions. So we really do need the rain. Now the question is when.

Well today it looks like we are in the clear except for a few rain showers well offshore for the deep sea fishing. Tonight I think it should remain dry for the Holiday Regatta of Lights. Expect the sailboats, trawlers, shrimp boats and many other marine boats to light up Matanzas Bay between the Bridge of Lions and Castillo de San Marcos. It will be a nice compliment to the 3 million lights on land! But nature will start lighting up the radar during the day on Sunday as a northeast wind starts to howl. Some wind gusts could hit 35 mph along the beaches! The farther south and east you go the more showers. I think rain will cover at least 50% of our area and I would take the ponchos to the Jags game. The nor'easter turns nasty Sunday night into Monday morning with almost everybody seeing rain except the far western areas! This nor'easter will be one to watch not only for its powerful punch but because it could bring in tides well above normal since it is occurring during the full moon. We will keep a close eye on it. Make sure to have the galoshes ready and I will have your two minute advantage! Have a great weekend and I will see you soon.

Back to Back 80s and Now Back to Reality

2011-12-07T23:51:00.003-05:00

Wednesday, December 7, 2011

It was all too good to be true. Our weather was right out of a Disney fairy tale especially with all the wild weather going on across the country. I had a nice run today and was bragging to my friends up north about how great it was to run in 80 degree weather! I dodged a few monarch butterflies and beautiful eagles were spotted around the area like this one. But we all know the weather does get cold in North Florida and South Georgia this time of year and sometimes like a flip of a switch! This reminded me of when I lived in Indiana. If you did not like the weather just wait five minutes. Check out our temperature drop from the National Weather Service Observations!

We went from 80 at noon to 61 degrees and a windy chilly mist by 4 p.m. By 7 p.m. it fell to 51 degrees and I had friends and family calling me and asking what my problem is? I guess they did not like the weather change and it goes to show you that being a weatherman is humbling in more than one way...lol. But I loved the ribbing but remember I do not control the weather. By 9 p.m. the temperature fell to 46 with wind chills in the 30s. Now feeling about 50 degrees cooler in only 8 to 9 hours, this is impressive even by Minnesota standards. The only thing that was missing was snow but wait....I start getting more texts about rumors starting around town about snow...now you know if there was a .01% chance of snow I would be shouting about it from the rooftops, so sadly I had to dispel that rumor but it certainly felt like snow.

Now before I go to bed I want to make sure you are ready for the morning. Okay, hats, gloves, and coats will be needed. I think lows will drop in the 30s and it will still be breezy. So wind chills could dip into the 20s. Highs in most areas will struggle just to hit 60! The good news is that this is only a cold snap and tonight I am more concerned about when and how much rain is on the way for the weekend. I will have your answers shortly. You stay warm and now I am off to help my kids with homework while heating up my favorite cup or two of Chocolate Kiss coffee! I will see you at noon and be back here on the blog in a jiffy!

The Best Weather & Fans in the Country! It is Teal Day Monday!

2011-12-05T15:50:00.003-05:00

Monday, December 5, 2011

It is hard to believe a team with only 3 wins has generated this much excitement. It goes to show you the Jacksonville Jaguars have a ton of community support. The other big trending topic here at home is certainly the 78 DEGREE WEATHER! Is it really December? We have not had a blackout since 2009 and tonight the stadium will be full! Nature is doing its part with incredible weather. No doubt, Everbank Field in Jacksonville, Florida is the place to be! Take a look at why the Jags and weather are the big ticket. Much of the country is either stormy or too cold! Freeze warning extend all the way into northern Mexico. Even Tuscon, Arizona will be shivering with a low of 26. Yes, all the country will be watching tonight and wishing they were here and all those big markets can only dream that they had the weather and and great fan base we do!

This is certainly more like an October game but for us we know it will have a playoff atmosphere. Speaking of cheering, this past weekend was very special for me. I went to a cheerleading meet at Creekside High School. I was not sure what to expect but was simply amazed at all the flying and flips, including my daughter Abbey's full twist! I wanted to give a special shoutout to all the great schools in St. Johns and Duval County, with a special shout out to my daughter who is on Fruit Cove's team! They finished first in St. Johns County. Great job team and coach Farbo!

How long can we cheer this weather? Well I think we have two more very nice and warm days! By Wednesday we could even challenge a record high of 82 set back in 1978. But remember to be careful late at night and in the early mornings with dense fog that usually accompanies warm, tropical patterns like this in December. Officially it is fog season with our shorter days and it will look and feel like it.

It was a busy weekend and in a good way. Another shout out goes to the Cub Scouts troop 35 from Southside Methodist. These first graders earned their severe weather badge and they loved learning about the two minute advantage and pointing to storms on the chroma key! They did order some snow and cold for Christmas but we did math together and came up with at least a first forecast we can fine-tune as we get closer. It looks like the total opposite of last year when flurries were flying on December 26th.

That is right all these warm days will be a recurring theme through much of our meteorological winter. This could still change but our chances of 70 degree weather are way higher than having cold and chances of snow which I will put at less than one percent at this time. But winter has not been cancelled and we could have a reality check by later this week and maybe even some needed rain. I will check back with you here on the blog tomorrow. Now it is time to cheer on the Jags. Take care and go Jags!

Stratus Sunday & Unusual Cold Air Funnels Ahead of our Big Warm-Up

2011-12-05T00:02:00.001-05:00

Sunday, December 4, 2011

Tim sent this in from Nocatee and it in fact does show a cold air funnel that formed at about 12,000 feet. This is something you normally would see in Michigan or Wisconsin. It was caused by our strong cold front that moved through late this week. Temperatures in nature's attic quickly fell to zero degrees while temperatures at the ground were more than 60 degrees warmer. You also had wind blowing in different directions at different heights. This caused instability and spin to take place and voila! Now the good news is this funnel stayed in the sky and rarely do they make it to the ground. When they do damage is usually very light. This funnel is more closely related to a water spout than a tornado. It was quite an interesting weekend for clouds.

We also had those infamous stratus clouds that formed this morning near the ground, better known as fog. This is why we dubbed today Stratus Sunday! Downtown virtually disappeared. I am concerned in this pattern as high pressure takes over the fog will only get worse for Monday and Tuesday mornings. So be extra careful. The good news is any rain shower activity will be in the form of mist this morning from the new I-295 to A1A. By this afternoon we should see a few more rays of sunshine and look for another phenomenon called crespuscular rays. It looks like the sun rays will be shining down from heaven. There will have plenty of clouds, moisture and dust in the air to scatter that sunlight and with the lower sun angle it also helps us see this beautiful sight. Take a look at a few of those rays below!

Our weekend skylights do not end here. Guess what else was spotted in the sky ahead of the big event!
You have guessed it. The blimp was overhead taking pictures of the beautiful Jacksonville skyline for Monday Night's nationally televised game. Check it out and I will be back with the most important Jags forecast in their history. Have a great day!

Weak Nor'easter will Bring More Spectacular Sunsets Than Rain!

2011-12-03T16:17:00.000-05:00

Saturday December 3, 2011

We had unusually strong high pressure by Florida standards. It reached at incredible 30.48" over interior southeast Georgia bring a light frost. This has increased the pressure differences between land and sea. A weak nor'easter has developed as a result but the good news is this will not ruin our weekend plans. I think it will bring in more clouds than rain and most of all more spectacular sunset like Steve Amos sent us from Fleming Island. Tonight's sunset is at 5:26 p.m. I will be back here on the blog this evening and talk more about the weak nor'easter and active weather across the country that will bring us another wild week of weather. In the meantime, expect temperatures this evening to be in the middle to upper 50s through midnight. Enjoy! Be back soon and join Jessica and I at 6, 7 and 11 p.m. tonight for more news and weather fun! Send in more pics so I can share and any weather numbers! Thank you!

Wonderful Weekend Weather to Make a Positive Difference

2011-12-02T17:43:00.002-05:00

Friday, December 2, 2011

Happy Friday and it is an extra special one here at First Coast News. We are proud to be involved with our 3rd Annual Hero Central Food Drive. I know when it comes to the weather we can keep you safe ahead of, during and after the storm but we cannot control the weather. What we can control is doing the best we can to help the needy in our community. I know I throw a lot of weather numbers out at you but was shocked to find out there are about 350,000 folks that battle hunger with almost half that number kids. So today you can do your part by picking up non-perishable items and dropping them off at all the selected locations you see above. We made a huge difference last year and unfortunately this year the need is even greater. The good news is together we can help fight hunger and we have a beautiful sunny day today with temperatures back to where they should be for this time of year. If you are in Georgia here are your selected locations and keep in mind our important food drive is not only today but on Saturday.

We are all thankful for making it through another hurricane season without a major impact. Many folks tell me about how miserable they were after losing power and all our their food for about 2-3 weeks at a time. Well imagine that feeling every single week of your life. This is why I am proud to be a part of this huge food drive. Speaking of hurricane season it was our third most active season on record but we only had 7 hurricanes which was average. Despite not having a major landfalling hurricane in the US for the sixth consecutive year (first time since 1878) it was one of our costliest seasons with about 10 billion dollars in damage.

One reason was the Saharan Dust Layer that caused our tropical waves off Africa to not only form farther north but taking longer to get their act together. Tropical systems need 80 degree water, light upper winds, and deep tropical moisture. This was our saving grace. Even though it is December you can still see a big dust layer choking the Atlantic in the darker orange and red areas. Irene and Tropical Storm Lee with never be forgotten for the flooding they brought and it was inland flooding this season that caused most of the damage showing you that these tropical systems have impact not just at the coastline but well inland. It broke my heart watching 100 year covered bridges being whisked away in Vermont.

Speaking of wind the Santa Ana winds that have hit the West Coast have been incredible the last couple days. The National Weather Service in Sacramento has declared it the most damaging wind storm they have had in about 10 years. You can see why!
...PRELIMINARY STORM INFORMATION...
***** NON THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST REPORTS *****

CEDAR RIDGE (NNE OF SONORA) THU 94 MPH
DOWNIEVILLE 6 NNW (SIERRA CO) THU 86 MPH
PASKENTA 6 WNW (TEHAMA CO) THU 72 MPH
DONNER PEAK 2 W (PLACER CO) THU 68 MPH
ALPINE MEADOWS 13 WSW (PLACER CO) THU 65 MPH

These winds were caused by a big dip in the jet stream caused by an area of low pressure while a strong high pressure moved in from Canada. This causes a wind to speed up as it rushes through the mountain passes. Luckily we had cold air to work with which kept what would have been a devastating fire storm to take place like it normally does with Santa Ana winds. But at the same time the cold air forced up caused the winds to be stronger than normal with this type of outbreak.

Here closer to home it is all about high pressure at the surface and aloft that will keep the stormy weather well north of our backyards and at the same time allow us to warm back up above average in the 70s. What a difference a year makes! We will take a closer look at this tomorrow with the latest charts. Have a great weekend and thanks for helping with the food drive!

_

Jack Frost Ushers in Meteorological Winter! Keeping Hope Alive for Winter Snow!

2011-12-01T22:59:00.002-05:00

December 1, 2011

There is my daughter Lauren and she is excited today is the first day of meteorological winter. It looks and feels like it! We hit 32 on the West Side of Jacksonville this morning with plenty of frost. Now I know the calendar winter starts on December 22nd at 12:30 a.m. but that is not based on weather. Our coldest 3 months of the year on average across the United States begins today which is based on climatology and thus you can officially say HAPPY METEOROLOGICAL WINTER! Now Lauren has her "let it snow" sled out. She is a chip off her old Dad! All the kids in the neighborhood have asked me for snow. Many have never seen it before in their short lives. I explained to them that anything is possible. It will be tough though.

The overall December pattern looks warmer than drier than normal as we have discussed here on the blog and I expect this trend to continue into January and February. Now one word of caution. This does not mean we do not have the potential for unusually strong arctic outbreaks. A weak La Nina pattern can bring brutal shots of cold air. The Siberian snow cover in October into November went from normal to well above normal. This trans-Siberian pipeline makes a move toward Florida at least a couple times a year, usually in mid to late January if things set up just right. Just be ready for a few memorable days of crazy cold and if we have enough moisture then yes I cannot rule out SNOW. I am keeping hope alive based on not just my heart but meteorology. If I had to attach a percentage to our chance of seeing snow this winter...I put it at 10%, but we have a chance and that is all the kids are asking for at 30 degrees latitude or where all the world's desert climates flourish.

The bigger story this winter is the drought that should worsen. I am really concerned. We had all three months of our meteorological autumn with below average rainfall. This makes it four months in a row below normal. You can see the severity of our drought with the map above. We need 6 to 9 inches to break our drought, but I know it areas of the Okefenokee I think it is more like 12". Notice the poor Panhandle checking in with a 15" plus drought. This is incredible. Fire season this year was really never really snuffed out and as we head through this winter I do think we have a chance for wildfires continuing and then picking up once again by Spring. We will keep you updated on this serious situation. As I look at the latest winter precipitation forecast I get chills and not the good kind. This winter's main storm track will run from Texas to the Midwest and interior Northeast keeping us much drier than normal. This is catastrophic.

Now I have to end this with the glass half full! You know me. Congratulations we made it through another hurricane season without a major hurricane hitting the United States, but do not tell that to our friends near Jacksonville, North Carolina and New England. I will explain what our saving grace was here on the blog on Friday. Also, how we have another big weekend warm-up on the way. We will take a look at our North Atlantic Oscillation charts and it will be easy to see why. I will check back with you in a few hours.

Like a Postcard in the Midwest, Freezing in Florida

2011-11-30T17:21:00.000-05:00

Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Here is the scene in Lafayette, Indiana. Teri confirmed my forecast of 1-2 inches! This is huge for our weather in Florida because the more snow cover in the Midwest the more the polar air holds together as it moves our way.

I know there are only Frost Advisories for our area, but count on a freeze away from the river in ocean. I know the offical freeze advisories are the I-75 corridor but I do think it will hit 32 in Jacksonville. Protect the pets and plants. I am going to play tennis and will be back to do more splaining! See you soon.

Dog Days of November Bark Up A Storm for One More Day

2011-11-28T12:02:00.010-05:00

Monday, November 28, 2011

Wow! I am quickly checking in with you before the big change hits! I am finishing up some yard work and running errands in more 80 degree weather today! You see Joanna Pringle sent in a picture of Ducotti the half Chihuahua-Pomeranian mix who loves to watch First Coast News weather! Well it is good to know I have at least one fan...LOL.

In the summer we call those hot, hazy, lazy 90 degree days, dog days. Once we get into the autumn and winter I consider 80 degree weather dog day weather, especially when we have the air conditioner on. While we are basking in unusually warm weather for most of today much of the country is wishing they were here. Jackson, Mississippi is in the upper 30s with their earliest snow in 20 years. Texas has already seen record lows in Corpus Cristi and Victoria where it was a bone-chilling 27 degrees. The low pressure causing all this crazy weather has a little bit of everything. It has plenty of flooding rain with portions of Alabama reporting over a five inch deluge this morning!

This means get ready for a dog fight as this colder air clashes with our warm atmosphere. Temperatures could fall in some areas here at home could fall as much as 30 degrees in only 6 hours. This front means business. The good news is we have not had any severe weather reports yet. But with the daytime heating and the warm sunshine we have had today will add instability to the atmosphere and we cannot rule out some gusts over 50 mph with a few of the stronger late day thunderstorms. We are already seeing gusts to 35 mph in our sunny, blue skies this morning outside of thunderstorms. Wind advisories are in effect. There is plenty of wind to work with as a low-level jet stream will continue to howl over the area.

We will not see widespread severe weather. Notice the latest CAPE indices or a measure of how much fuel the atmosphere has to fire up our thunderstorms is on the low side. We are also lacking deep-level moisture in the atmosphere which will keep us from being put in any kind of severe weather watch box. But we need to stay alert. You cannot just play by the numbers when forecasting. When you go from late summer to winter in just a few hours you certainly have to not just get out the winter coats but keep your guard up. Keep your eyes to the west-southwest. That is where the thunderstorms will be moving from.

What does this mean for December? Our mantra here on my weather blog is that what happens in November nature tends to remember come winter! Last year it was the Greenland high pressure controlling our weather. It sent one cold blast after another our way and and we had to endure our coldest December on record with 4 record lows and temperatures running an unheard of 9.1 degrees below normal. We had 20 freezes and usually we only average about 17 freezes for an entire winter. It was so cold there were flurries at the Jaguar-Redskin game on December 26th.

This year we will NOT see a repeat. The warm breezes from the Bermuda high pressure will win out.
We have a weaker La Nina (equatorial Pacific Ocean temps slightly below normal). The latest models are showing much colder water off the California coastline, a more dominant Aleutian low pressure with plenty of cold and snow for Alaska and northwestern Canada, and a stronger than normal high pressure off the Florida coastline. The areas of blue on the map above depicts where most of the true polar air will be.This does not mean we will not have any cold weather for December. Not at all. But the pattern favors us having quick shots of cold air followed by nice warm spells. So buckle up the rollercoaster ride continues. Rainfall is not looking very promising and I will detail this here on the blog over the next few days. But temperature-wise this forecast is good news for my lawn still recovering from last winter!

This early unusual snow setting up in the deep South, where Memphis could even see two inches of snow is telling us where our December storm track is setting up. It could be an icy, snowy December from portions of northeast Texas into the heart of the Midwest. Already another big snow/ice event is setting up for this time next week and it will be an even bigger deal.

Speaking of the Midwest, I used to enjoy shoveling that first inch of snow when I was a meteorologist in Lafayette, Indiana. We called it the Golden Snow Shovel Award for the viewer that came closest to guessing when we would have our first inch of snow. While I am too far away to shovel this year, I can at least keep all my Midwest friends safe! Here is what I am thinking....get out your snow shovels or should I say brooms? Lafayette by early tomorrow evening a heavy, wet snow moves in for 3-5 hours. The ground will be soaked and warm with temperatures at the surface just above freezing. This means I am forecasting 1-2" of snow for Lafayette. Indianapolis will likely on have slushy cat tracks with up to 1" possible. If you live from Logansport to Rochester and Goshen you may see the jackpot snow of 2-4 inches. This band may extend as far south as Kokomo. This same storm will keep highs here in north Florida and south Georgia stuck in the 50s Tuesday and Wednesday!

Check back here on the blog and I will have your first sneak peek of what we can expect on Christmas Eve and Christmas. Remember it looks like another wild weather ride as we head into December. Talk to you soon! I better go get those outdoor errands done!

Going from Late Summer to January All in a Day!

2011-11-27T22:45:00.001-05:00

Sunday, November 27, 2011

What a great night it was! My daughter Abbey sent this great picture in of the fireworks display at the Jacksonville Light Show. This sums up our holiday weekend! It was a hit! Yes, the Jaguars lost but we won where it counted most and that is with great weather and time with family and friends. But it does look like our fun in the sun is about over. Today we did hit 80 degrees and we may sneak in one more tomorrow but by Tuesday temperatures will be lucky to make it into the upper 50s.

You see Everett in Waycross took my advice by taking advantage of this weather while he could by going all out! Wow that is an attached ladder on an ATV. I have never seen that before. Waycross hit 81 degrees which was not far from a record high. Some folks say they need cooler weather to really get into the holiday spirit. Don't worry, but be careful what you wish for. We have a strong front coming our way and the transition will be bumpy on Monday. Here is my latest severe weather map for Monday afternoon.

Already today we have had reports of 50 mph gusts in the panhandle of Florida and this could impact our eastern counties including Duval County. I cannot rule out some hail due to some very cold air aloft that already has the snow/rain mix over North Georgia down to 4,000 feet!

Here is the latest timing so make sure to keep your eye to the sky Monday afternoon. The main threat will be damaging wind gusts near 60 mph and large hail. Of course lightning safety rules should always be followed. So batten down the hatches and stay tuned. We will keep you ahead of the storms. We could use the rain as we are running about an inch below normal in most areas. So hopefully we can get some welcome rain and keep the wind damage to a minimum. Have a great and safe week. I will check back with you this week on your December and even Christmas Outlook! Take care!

Timing as Good as Pumpkin Pie! Be Ready for Big Changes Next Week!

2011-11-26T09:12:00.003-05:00

Saturday, November 26, 2011

Good morning! Great to check in with you here during Good Morning Jacksonville. We have had a few clouds this morning but do not let them scare you. The area of low pressure offshore today will continue to weaken and we will even see some sunshine! Timing is everything when forecasting and it looks like it is on our side. The strong cold front moving our way will hold off until later Monday into early Tuesday. This means our warming trend will continue with weather almost as good as my Grandma's pumpkin pie. Highs should reach well into the 70s today to the lower 80s Sunday and Monday. But something has to give in this unusually warm, late summer pattern and when winter makes a charge at us on Monday we could see some strong storms with damaging wind and even large hail. We will keep you updated. So do not let the turkey leftovers allow you to fall asleep in this very active pattern or you will be left out in the cold! Here are the latest models that I now agree with that came in this morning!

Main squall line stays well west and travel stays tranquil. Atlanta will probably not see any significant rain until later Sunday night and the major cities along the East Coast should be trouble-free! The Jag game looks very warm and dry with highs pushing 80 degrees. Remember the hats, shorts, and sunscreen.

The main squall line of storms moves our way by late Monday afternoon and we will have your only Live Doppler Radar cranking and our weather team ready to keep you and your family safe.

You can see why there are severe weather concerns. Snow will break out behind the front as close to home as Macon, Georgia. We do not have snow in the forecast but a big chill with a freeze and frost looking more likely by Wednesday and Thursday of next week. Daytime highs will be stuck in the 50s. Enjoy the rest of the weekend while you can and more of those leftovers. Now I am ready for some more pumpkin pie! Have a wonderful day! Make sure to e-mail me some pictures from the boat light parade and I will see you on Facebook, Twitter, and the news tonight at 6 p.m.

Shop till You Drop on the Beach Weather!

2011-11-25T12:54:00.003-05:00

Friday, November 25, 2011

We have great shop till you drop weather for the remainder of this afternoon with highs in the lower to middle 70s. This picture was sent to me by my wife Julie at about midnight! That is right she snuck out with my daughters while I was sleeping and they actually woke me up at 2 a.m. as I was getting up to go to work! The lines were long and yes Black Friday lived up to the hype. But I am renaming Black Friday, Green Friday! This is because we will go from good shopping weather with this mornings chill to good outdoors weather. We will have plenty of sunshine and it will be comfortable with highs in the middle 70s. You can take a nice walk or run under the green palm trees or hit the greens and tee it up one our many fine golf courses on the beautiful First Coast. I know a lot of folks are from out of town and they will not be able to hit the links until next Spring! The beach will also be the other place to be today with highs having no trouble reaching the lower 70s even on the sand. But will we stay nice or turn nasty like a couple weather models suggested over the last few days!

My verdict is in and I am going NICE!!! Shop till you drop ON THE BEACH! You have to know the big picture and it is showing a split jet stream. Notice the polar jet stream is well to the north keeping the real cold stuff bottled up in Alaska and Northwest Canada. The southern jet stream and ridge continue to dominate our weather. As a result, not only will we continue to warm up this weekend but I think we could hit 80 degrees! This La Nina pattern will be repeated this winter and I have an updated winter outlook coming up for you here on the blog over the weekend!

Our weekend has two big weather-makers. We have the cold front to the west and the Bermuda high in the East. Usually the cold front wins out this time of year and it eventually will. But our high pressure will put up a stubborn fight and this means we will can get out the sunscreen this weekend instead of the umbrellas. If you are going to the Jags game it will easily hit 80 degrees and feel much warmer in the stands.

Travel weather also looks good on Sunday with the heaviest snow remaining in Canada and the higher elevations of the Pacific Northwest.and West. Atlanta should be okay and those nasty rumors of snow on Sunday are just not true. Even Chicago has some bonus weather for this time of year with minimal delays and just a few snow flurries. The only problem area will be the Pacific Northwest so check ahead if Aunt Polly is heading back to Portland.

On Monday the front finally makes a move east with a few showers and believe it or not some wet snowflakes for the deep South which may include Mississippi and Alabama! We may eek out one more day near 80 before the rain and wintry change comes in Monday night into Tuesday. It all depends on the front. I will have updates throughout the weekend and look forward to seeing you at 8 a.m. on Saturday for Good Morning Jacksonville! Santa arrives on Center Street in Fernandina Saturday and he will feel at home next week! I do think we could see both a freeze and frost with maybe only 50s for highs by Wednesday.

In the short-term at the Landing tonight and for all the big high school playoff games temperatures will be in the middle to upper 50s with mostly clear skies. Now off to Grandmas! I am ready for some leftover. Enjoy the great weather and family time! Thanks for the pictures and weather notes you sent me this morning. Take care and I will see you soon. You can also e-mail weather pictures to weather@firstcoastnews.com and go to our Facebook page at firstcoastnews.com. I love sharing your fun pictures, weather info, and stories. Also, you can send in some weather questions, concerns, or if you need a personal forecast I will be more than happy to help out! You can always reach me at mprangley@firstcoastnews.com.

Coolest Start to Thanksgiving Weekend in Six Years, But Warm Leftovers on the Way!

2011-11-24T18:59:00.002-05:00

November 24, 2011

Happy Thanksgiving! Temperatures were right on target today, although I think we briefly nipped 67 officially in Jacksonville. We had a big family feast and I certainly have a lot to be thankful for weatherwise and otherwise. I want to thank my wife for the great job on the turkey. She cooked up so much food we could have fed the Pilgrims. The house really heated up so it was a relief we could open the windows and let the cooler air in. Last year we would have had to crank the air conditioner as highs reached the lower 80s. This year was just right in my book and my youngest daughter Lauren pitched in by making gravy. It was the coolest Thanksgiving since 2005 but do not get used to it.

Speaking of weather history. It is interesting that the last 10 Thanksgivings have averaged highs of 71 which is average for this time of year. But at the same time it is like a box of chocolates. Notice the huge temperature differences we have had. In fact on this date in 1970 we had a high of only 39! This tells us not to get used to or count on the weather we have today sticking around for tomorrow. I do think we will need to dress in layers to start on Friday morning. My wife and kids are getting up at 4 a.m. to go shopping. I got them beat! I am not shopping but getting ready for work at 2:30 a.m. LOL. Lows will drop to the lower 40s inland to near 60 on the sand. Friday afternoon you can peel the layers as we quickly heat up into the lower to middle 70s and this is the beginning of a wild weekend of weather. On Sunday another weather-changer moves our way and we could even see a thunderstorm before temperatures nose-dive. So yes, the leftovers look warm for most of the weekend, but don't forget about that box of chocolates!

Holiday Front Brings Needed Rain and No Severe Weather!

2011-11-23T08:33:00.003-05:00

Wednesday, November 23, 2011

Good Morning! I am writing to you from Grandma's near Orlando but wanted to check in and say hello. I keep tabs on our weather all the time no matter where I am. You know how our Florida weather not only changes frequently but we have 8 different micro-climates from Lake City to southeast Georgia to Jacksonville, St. Augustine and the beaches. The weather is always busy even on quiet days. It is a good thing I love what I do because the weather never stops and either do I!

Today you have reminded me of just how lucky I am to do what I love and most of all how thankful I am to have viewers like you! I am very thankful for all your weather reports and even got a nice text weather pic from Dan in Ponte Vedra first thing this morning that certainly made my day! Thanks to Dan we know today's weather mantra is, "red sky in the morning, sailor's take warning"! The colorful morning sky is a sign of an approaching cold front and you may even see a few rainbows this morning if you turn your back to the sun. We really do need the rain and have a lot to be thankful for!

I was able to check on our local weather from 120 miles away by going to First Coast News on Facebook and it confirmed that heavy rain will be our big weather story this morning. If you have not joined First Coast News yet on Facebook you are missing out! We are now up to 30,000 plus "likes" and growing quickly. It really is the future! All you have to do is hit " like" to participate. Not to sound like a commercial, but we not only have the most up to date weather ( I update it several times even on the weekend) but news, sports, and even holiday give-aways and coupons.

Keep those reports coming! I challenge all weather enthusiasts to send in temperatures, rainfall, sky conditions and weather pictures. It will certainly improve the way we do weather as evidenced this morning. You can also become a weather watcher by e-mailing your weather thoughts and reports to our weather team at weather@firstcoastnews.com and do not forget to send some rainy pics as well. We love all your feedback!

Weather is interactive and it really is your show, it is your weather! You should be the center of our forecasts! I look forward to showing your weather thoughts, observations and pics on the blog or on-air. Here are some of our weather watcher reports so far this morning. Thanks so much!

Wanda Rhoden: westside normandy comeing down pretty hard here
Giulia Occhino Cermak: It just rained hard for about 3 minutes here in green cove springs on Henley road area.

Vicki Eastwood It just started in Arlington....hope its over by 830...
Jenna Ostrander Hasnt rained here nere Mayport, but the clouds look mean! Coming soon

Jonathan Suro Argyle Forrest Blvd, and Old Middleburg Rd here at OakLeaf...rain is coming down pretty hard and consistantly.no sign of lightning and thunder at this moment.

Patti Barfield Westside Sandler Rd @ Bentcreek Golf Course. Pouring Down rain here, gittin a good car wash!

Danielle Sawyer Not a hard rain here in Green Cove Springs but pretty steady.

Chuck Lysaght Steady rain in San Marco. Ilona Hagen Bands of hard rain in the Bellair area of Orange Park

Cathy Lawson-Shiver Pouring out here on chaffee rd27

Danielle Sawyer I retract my first statement, now its pouring in G.C.S.

Lori Kosier not raining in Hastings. Barg Two (2) inches so far around Craig Airfield! Patricia Jane Haynes

Raining in St Marys but not real hard.It's finally stopping over on Westside/Normandy. It was pouring earlier.

The good news is by time I drive my grandma back home to Jacksonville the rain will be long gone. All our shower activity will be this morning than we can expect clearing and cooler weather in time for our big holiday weekend. It is also my father-in-laws birthday today and he has made it to town safely from Wisconsin. We should have good cake-easting weather outside this afternoon. The timing could not be better! I am dissecting the latest models and will check back with you! God bless! Now off to breakfast with Grandma before we drive home.Thank you.

Foggy to Balmy Pattern Holds Next Couple Days

2011-11-20T23:49:00.001-05:00

Sunday, November 13, 2011

We had the fog as forecasted this morning. Pamela captured those ground clouds nicely for us. We did have a few spots on the west side with visibilities reduced to less than a quarter mile. My big concern is the fog will only get worse. In fact, I would call it dangerous fog for the morning commutes on both Monday and Tuesday mornings as our ridge of high pressure holds. We have also have high dewpoints and mainly clear skies which will enhance the fog. This is the price we will have to pay by running a good 10 degrees above the norm for this time of year.

The fog should dissipate or "burn off" by 9 a.m. during the morning and once the sun comes out we will quickly go from foggy to balmy. The only sign of the holidays I could find for the next couple days was not on the weather maps but in my Dad's garden in Mandarin. Check out the poinsettias that are now turning white and red! Very nice! Now I am in the holiday spirit but my air conditioner will be cranking because I think highs will easily reach the lower to middle 80s through Tuesday. The records we will challenge will be on Monday. The record is 84 set back in 1991. The record we will challenge on Tuesday is also 84 set back in 1973. Our rain chances remain low but this time of year the weather does not hold for more than a couple days. Wednesday the first of two stormy fronts will move our way!

Check back here on the blog this week for your travel weather and how this Thanksgiving Week will stack up versus the rest! Have a great day!

Sunshine to Spritzles But Nothing to Spoil Your Holiday Preparations!

2011-11-19T15:12:00.004-05:00

Saturday, November 12, 2011

What a great morning it was out in Fruit Cove! I was able to cheer on the kids and cheerleaders in the flag football games in the sparkling sunshine. Temperatures were near 70 or about 30 degrees warmer than this time than last week when when many parents were not happy with me as Jack Frost paid a visit. This weekend we have no frost in the forecast but beware of the spritzles! What are spritzles? Well let's take a look!

This was my windshield at 2 p.m. showing a reflection of the clouds that moved in and the very small drops of rain or should I say mist. While a spritzle is not an official meteorological term it is a name given to very light rain by meteorologists that barely wets the sidewalk. The best part of spritzles in the forecast is that you can still hang the holiday lights and keep your outdoor plans. No lightning or any heavy rain is in the forecast.

How did it go gray so quickly? Well remember that wind direction and speed plays a huge role in forecasting Florida weather and today we had the wind colliding right over us in nature's attic. It was like two football players colliding and that collision helped form clouds and a few light showers. We have a dry east flow at the surface but a tropical southwest wind at 18,000 feet. This stream of wind is carrying extra spin and moisture that is lifting the air just enough for a little bit of rain. These mini-swirls of low pressure in the atmosphere will continue in the weekend forecast at times. I think we get a break tonight in time for the Holiday Kickoff at St. Johns Town Center, but another Sunday swirl at 18,000 feet could develop and bring a few showers once again due to colliding winds. But overall it will be the drier, nice warm weather that will win out this weekend with highs back in the middle to upper 70s so do not cancel your plans.

The holidays came early this year at First Coast News. Check out the feast we had this morning! You see our Good Morning Jacksonville crew! Here are the great people I work with and I want to thank our producer Patty in the foreground who gets in by midnight to make sure we bring you the best newscast as humanly possible. I am lucky to work with great people and I want to thank the chefs Alberto and Brett in this picture who cooked us up a meal that would make Mom or Grandma proud! The Italian stuffing and turkey was unlike anything I had ever tasted and I say that in a great way. The food was incredible and they treated us like royalty. If you are looking to eat out on Thanksgiving I highly recommend going to the World Golf Village at the Renaissance Hotel Resort. Hurry up and make reservations. They are going quickly and I can understand why.

This brings us to our next question and that is what will nature be feasting on come Thanksgiving. The last two weekends I was thinking in terms of a potpourri of food and weather for our weekend of thanks and I will stand by my forecast as we get closer. We have a screaming jet stream howling across the country with heavy snow breaking out in the West and Plains. This stormy jet stream will eventually dip our way by the middle and end of next week or in time for the holiday.

Once again the rollercoaster ride begins with record highs possible once again for our holiday week which includes a cool down that will likely put you in the holiday spirit. It should feel like Thanksgiving as highs will likely only be in the 60s. But it will not last and another weekend warm-up is likely which is good new for all our relatives and snowbirds that are making their way to Florida. The pressure is on and I love it! Travel-wise delays are looking more likely by next Tuesday and Wednesday and again for travels home on Sunday. I am sniffing out a MIDWEST SNOWSTORM by late Thanksgiving Weekend. Tonight make sure to join me at 7 and 11 and we will iron out all the details and have your complete Thanksgiving forecast. See you soon. Time for a quick run in the spritzles!

Nature Puts on Another Light Show Tonight with the Leonid Meteor Shower.

2011-11-17T16:52:00.003-05:00

Thursday, November 17, 2011

Well most folks I have talked to today are ready for some cooler changes. I don't blame you if you think it has been too hot! We did have a heat index of 90 yesterday and even last night when I was playing tennis it felt more like a tropical rain forest than Jacksonville, Florida. I did lose a few extra pounds but am still rehydrating today. The good news is that the winds of change are blowing in from the North. These are the same north winds that helped bring snow to the North Carolina Mountains today. By time they whistle through our neighborhoods we are talking jacket weather once again with temperatures quickly falling through the 50s this evening. The good news is drier air will be ushered in setting the stage for great viewing for tonight's meteor shower.

Last night we had a light show about 10 miles high with incredible lightning bolts and jolts across the area as our cold front moved through. We had a few downed trees near Waycross and Homerville, Georgia otherwise we were very lucky. Imagine if we had some instability to work with. That line was impressive considering and folks in the Carolinas were not so lucky with about a dozen tornadoes confirmed and a few fatalities. Here at home, a couple bolts lit the whole house up so much that it had to be within 50 feet, especially after the immediate crash of thunder. Luckily, our house was not hit directly and our family dog BJ who was almost de-furred the lightning was so close is all in one piece! Tonight nature puts on another big show at about 60 miles high. It is the Leonid meteor show. It is known for producing the fastest meteors that travel over 160,000 mph. This is enough to heat the air in front of their path to an incredible 3,000 degrees helping the sand grain size particles to burn up. We are basically traveling into comet debris and this lights up our night sky.

Keep in mind what makes this meteor shower different is not only the faster streaks of light but it peaks much earlier than usual. Earlier is better. Find a dark spot and look east after 10 p.m. with the peak coming just before 11 p.m. You should not need a telescope and can expect 10-20 per hour. The moon still 55% illuminated will cut down on visible meteors when it rises at 11:39 p.m. So go early, bundle up and enjoy!

Check back on the blog on Friday and I will have the latest on your big holiday week next week. Will the rollercoaster ride continue? I will have your answer.

Setting records but being spared severe weather!

2011-11-16T15:40:00.004-05:00

Wednesday, November 16, 2011

This picture sent in to First Coast News captures the weather pattern nicely. The pelicans are fat and happy at the Vilano Beach Pier and it looks and feels more like summer out there! Today the magic number for interior inland locations was 85 degrees. That was the record set back in 2005 officially at Jacksonville International. I have reports of 86 at Orange Park, 87 St. Augustine Shores and a whole slew of 85 degree readings from Middleburg to Keystone Heights, and Cecil Field. Macclenny has had a high of 84 but if you factor in the dewpoint reading of 73 it feels more like 90 degrees in the shade!! Last check at the airport it was 83 so it is still possible we did hit 85...but regardless who lives at the airport? This in my book is a record-setting afternoon and it is the same record we talked about here on the blog way back over the weekend! My daughters are ready to go to the pool again, for the second time in a week!! LOL...This is the same week that brought our first frost and freeze! It is a transitional time of year. Now with that said these wild swings can sometimes bring severe weather to Florida. The highest risk area this time of year is the Panhandle but some strong storms can sometimes sneak into our area.

Remember the severe lightning in 2006 that caused a propane tank explosion. In November 2002, 2003, 2004 we had several tornado touchdowns from Escambia to Walton and Appling Counties. Strong storms jolted the Jacksonville area. So far today Alabama and North Georgia have been hit with EFO tornadoes that will be confirmed near Opelika and Auburn and 60 mph gusts. Here at home some national media outlets paint us in a severe weather outlook. But I think we will be okay here at home. This is the value of getting a forecast from your local weather team. The storms that have caused severe weather today were not just cooler, drier air meeting our warm, tropical air mass. There was an upper-level disturbance than added some extra lift. This upper-level disturbance will continue to quickly race out ahead of our cold front that will not move through our area until early Thursday morning. As a result I am thinking just scattered shower and isolated thunderstorm activity. The thunderstorms will be more like rumbles for Jacksonville metro. Check out the latest CAPES (convective available potential energy for tomorrow morning).

What you want to look for are yellow and deep green areas that usually fuel severe storms this time of year. These CAPE values are non-existent by time the main front moves our way tomorrow morning. Instead we are left with paltry lighter green shades. We may see a few gusts near 35 mph out near I-75 in the Live Oak, Jasper, and Valdosta area first thing on Thursday but this line will not hold together and by time it arrives east of highway 301 it should lose most of its lightning. Meteorologist Steve Smith has you covered with your Two Minute Advantage and at Noon I will have a few leftover showers to track with the boaters. The cooler, drier air will be the big story. We also have a big meteor shower coming Thursday night!

I will have more on this but first I leave you with a picture from Laura in Battle Ground, Indiana. They had 60 mph gusts and quarter size hail along with a green sky. Here at home this same front will move through but it will be remembered for the record heat it helped to bring us! Have a great night and I will see you soon!

Datil Do It! Nature Decides on Warm Pattern, Records by Mid-Week!

2011-11-13T16:18:00.001-05:00

November 13, 2011

It was a surreal afternoon. I know I forecasted big changes but these same kids had coats and hats on only about 24 hours earlier. I enjoyed taking them to the pool. I brought my lap top so I could look at weather maps. The water temp was still near 70 and they stayed in the water a few minutes at a time while splashing and then went dashing for the towels. The funny part is on the way to the pool we were listening to Christmas music! Yes, it is the holiday season in Florida. This is totally normal and it is beginning to look and feel a lot like Christmas here at home. For instance today's record high is 85 and our record low hit 31 in 1987 so anything is possible and all meteorologists should keep their lap tops handy!

It is the time of year when nature likes variety and the saying that variety is the spice of life sums up our pattern. Speaking of.....it is the time of year for chocolate covered Datil peppers and it was a great day for the Popping Pepper Palooza in St. Augustine today which benefits the Boys and Girls Club. Based on the latest models I looked at by the pool....datil do it we will be challenging record highs by the middle of the week. I think our best chance comes on Wednesday when I am forecasting a high of 85 which would tie the record set back in 2005. Even on Tuesday if we get enough sunshine we could pop near record highs of 86 which occurred in 1955. One thing is for sure and that is we have three consecutive days of 80 degree weather on the way.

In the short-term our warmer pattern could still bring a couple weather worries. Be careful of patchy dense fog over the next couple mornings which could linger into mid-morning. Otherwise it may be time to hit the pool to stay cool! We cannot rule out a few strong thunderstorms as our warm and more humid atmosphere will collide with another cold front by late Wednesday and Thursday. Stay tuned!

So enjoy the warm tranquility while you can! Our crazy swings in weather will settle down through at least Wednesday but a parade of storms is lining up and nature brings us more spice by late week but I do not see a frost. This fast-moving pattern will not let the cold take hold but it will eventually catch up to us. Make sure to join me at 6, 6:30, and 11 for the latest look at our Thanksgiving Weekend which may go wild turkey! See you soon!

If You Don't Like the Weather Just Wait a Few Minutes!

2011-11-12T11:54:00.005-05:00

Saturday November 12, 2011

What a morning it was! Many areas away from the water had a heavy frost that looked like a light skiff of snow. No snow but it was cold enough for snow as Jacksonville International dropped to 31 degrees which smashed the old record of 33 set back in 1987. Our average low is 52 for this time of year! We were colder than Burlington, Vermont and felt more like New England this morning! You see Jeff sent in a great picture of his Macclenny thermometer and the frosty moon (name given to the November moon by Native Americans). It certainly lived up to its name.

You see that the frost was so thick on windshields that you could write FROSTY! But for those that think it was too early this frost was actually about normal for this time of year. I guess you could make a case it was about a week early, but for interior Georgia and Florida it was actually about a week late! If you still think it got too cold too soon I have the perfect forecast for you! I will use the ol' New England saying that if you don't like the weather just wait a few minutes! We will jump 40 degrees today and I think many areas could actually reach 70! Stock up on the vitamin C. That has to take a toll on the human body! The same dry air mass will mix with sunshine and up those temperatures will go faster than the hot air balloon you see ready to take off in World Golf Village this morning where they had a low of 40 with no frost.

So it will be a great day and pleasantly warm after all! We have two seasons in one day and it will feel like autumn again even by noon when temperatures should recover into the middle 60s.

I wanted to thank everybody for the great pictures and numbers sent in to our e-mail at weather@firstcoastnews.com and on our Facebook Page. I love e-mails and sharing weather pictures. Please keep them coming! Notice many of our weather watchers were even colder than the airport including 28 at Baldwind, Middleburg, and Oakleaf. The beaches were warmer as expected with lows mainly in the lower to middle 40s near the water that is still in the middle 60s.

The coldest spot I could find was the Osceola National Forest and John Bethea State Forest where a couple thermometer reports came in at a nose-numbing 23 degrees! Wow!! The good news is I have cancelled the hot chocolate advisory for the rest of today and you may need the short sleeves and lemonade to stay cool out in the 70 degree sunshine this afternoon! Make sure to remember the sunscreen. We are in a fast-moving pattern and I still think we could be well into the 70s Sunday with no more frost to worry about. The 80s return Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday of next week with record highs possible and thunderstorms by later on Wednesday. So that is right! We will have a taste of all four seasons over the next 7 days! Get out the shorts and bathing suits and then stay tuned for a few frisky storms on your only Live Doppler Radar. Our wild ride has just begun especially when I am tracking not one but two jet streams! We will talk more about this here on the blog and on the tube tonight at 6, 7, and 11 p.m. I will also let you know why I am not expecting another frost until after Thanksgiving! Have a great weekend! Stay warm and cool!

Beautiful Parade Today, But our First Freeze and Frost for Many Tonight!

2011-11-11T14:39:00.003-05:00

November 11, 2011

What a gorgeous day it turned out to be! This is more than a wild roller coaster ride nature has us on. We honored the Veterans by covering the parade at First Coast News and I had a great time bringing my three daughters to work with me so they could understand today is more than just a day away from school. They did gain more appreciation so it was a successful day and also enjoyed the bands, waving to the veterans, and some of the fancy floats you see above! They started off in their warm jackets but by the end of the parade my daughters were back in their short sleeves. Temperatures started at 52 degrees and by the end of the parade it was a pleasant 62 degrees. Even Joy Purdy had to take her heavy coat and scarf off! But do not put your warm weather gear away by any means! These wild temperature swings are a warning sign that the big chill is yet to come! It is being brought to you by a very dry air mass that originated in Canada and it will feel like Canada late tonight and first thing Saturday morning.

Here are my forecast lows around the area. Note the darker blue areas have frost advisories and interior St. Johns and Flagler Counties will even get in on some frost even if they are not in an official advisory. The lighter blue areas are freeze warnings with some of the colder spots dipping to freezing for 2 to 3 hours by first thing Saturday! The official record low for Jacksonville is 33 set back in 1987. I think we have a good chance of reaching that by late tonight!

Make sure you bring in the pets and protect the sensitive plants especially away from the river and ocean. Notice some areas of interior Florida and Southeast Georgia from near Waycross will be below freezing and we are not talking about the wind chills. These are actual air temperatures.

Temperatures over the ocean and St. Johns River are still in the middle to upper 60s so that is why you see lows near the coast holding in the 40s from St. Simons Island to Fernandina to Jax Beach, Ponte Vedra and all the way down to Flagler Beach. But once you get away from the water that still holds all of that heat from our summer season notice how temperatures plummet to near freezing in Woodbine right off Interstate 95.

Now if this is too cold too soon for you it is okay! You can still smile like the sunshine. What a incredible shot captured by Jonathan Copeland!! This was a summer scene and we have summer breezes back in the 7 day forecast! I will have more on this over the weekend! See you soon! Stay warm and have the shorts ready! Make sure to send in your frosty pictures to weather@firstcoastnews.com! Don't forget the pets and plants!

Fantastic to Freezing in Many Areas by Saturday Morning!

2011-11-10T14:36:00.002-05:00

November 10, 2011

What a beautiful day it turned out to be! You can give your regards to Tropical Storm Sean that will pose no threat to any land areas. It slowed down our weather pattern just enough for us to squeeze in one more nice warm day! It officially hit 80 in Orange Park. It also provided surfers including Chief Meteorologist Tim Deegan with ideal clean lines of 5 to 7 feet plus. He is still smiling! I have a big grin too because we have a great weather pattern for meteorologists! Check out what the strongest cold front of the season is going to do to our temperatures!

We will free fall nearly 50 degrees between now and Saturday morning. If you look closely you will see the kids all bundled up in the background with hot chocolates. Not only do I have a hot chocolate advisory in effect but our first frost and freeze of the season is on the way by Saturday morning. You will really start noticing a difference this evening as the winds kick up and the temperatures start to plummet. If you are heading to the fair dress warmly as temperatures fall into the 50s but wind chills will be in the 40s. This front will not bring much rain. I think most of us stay dry and those that do see rain, it will not be enough to wet the pavement. But this front will make up for its lack of moisture with our coldest temperatures of the season. Keep in mind by morning it is a good thing many kids are off tomorrow. Wind chills will drop to near freezing. If you are taking your kids to the Veterans Day Parade like I am make sure to get out the red, white, and blue winter gear with temperatures only expected to be in the middle 50s with a north wind at 10 to 20 mph making it feel much colder! When and where will our actual freezes occur? Here are the latest freeze watches.

The official freeze watches are for all of southeast Georgia west of I-95 and most of North Florida away from the river and ocean. Keep in mind western Putnam and Clay Counties could also see a heavy frost and freezing temperatures. I am expected teeth-chattering upper 20s from Jasper to Waycross. Near 30 from Gainesville to Starke, Mcclenny and Nahunta. Temperatures will hit 32 from Keystone Heights and even portions of western Putnam County to western Duval, Jax airport, and most of Nassau County west of A1A. Mandarin, St. Johns and areas along the rivers and beaches will see lows closer to 40 degrees. I will keep you posted.

Now while I am not calling for snow, since it will be clear, crisp and calm we will have a heavy frost here at home tomorrow night. In Lafayette, Indiana Justin New was kind enough to snap this picture of their first "graupel" snow. This tells you our front has a ton of cold air aloft. It is moving our way and will work its way to the ground. You stay warm and stay tuned!

Glorious Sunshine! Motivation weather helps us fly over the hump!

2011-11-09T11:12:00.006-05:00

November 9, 2011

It has been a cloudy, dreary, chilly month but that is all behind us now! Today our Florida weather bounces back in a big way as highs roll into the lower 80s. The only thing impeding our sun rays will be if you are under the oak or magnolia tree you see above. We have a UV Index of 5 which means when you take your extra long walk or run like I am make sure to remember the sunscreen with SPF 15! I know it is November but believe it or not on average a sunburn can take place today in as little as 35 minutes. If you need to ask the boss for a favor or about a much deserved raise, today is the day to do it. It has been proven that sunny, warm days release the feel-good chemical from the pineal gland in the brain. You are not only more motivated on days like this but your body naturally has more energy. I feel like I can run 26.2 now and the National Breast Cancer Marathon is not until February. I better harness some of this energy! You also receive free vitamin D which builds your bones and muscles. So on this hump day get out and enjoy. You also have the weatherman's seal of approval to take off work early. Just double-check with your boss, please! I do not want any surprise e-mails...lol

It has been tough to find any pictures on the asteroid fly-by last night. Here is the best one I could find out of Clay Hill Observatory in Massachusetts. The brightest object in the lower right is asteroid 2005 YU55. What is amazing is this asteroid will do several more fly-bys of the earth over the next few hundred years. It is yet to be determined if we will stay outside of its main path. But we should be safe for at least the next 100 years at least from this asteroid. It has been put on the hazardous asteroids list. Did you know there was such a thing? Now if you are wondering why every channel and frequency on your TV and radio will be going off today at 2 p.m. it does not mean the asteroid has turned around and is coming our way. It is the first ever national test of our emergency alert system. The whole country will be impacted at 2 p.m. EST. It will last for approximately 30 seconds. It is only a test.

Here is another look at Sean which is the big swirl in the Atlantic. It will continue to produce dangerous rips and high seas here in Florida for at least one more day before moving north and falling apart. We could still have 12 foot seas out near the Gulf Stream, so once again today may be beautiful on land but it is not the best of fishing days well offshore. Sean, which is the 18th named storm and for the first time since records have been kept in the tropics since 1851 we have had two consecutive seasons with 18 or more named storms. Hurricane-wise this year it has been average with 6. Average is 6 and it looks like the Saharan Dust Layer from Africa once again played a key role in limiting the number of hurricanes by adding drier air to the atmosphere and more wind shear. Speaking of 6, it was our sixth most active year on record but we are not done yet. I see a huge ridge setting up in the Caribbean Sea along with very warm water. This breeding ground is not done yet! I think another named storm is likely which would tie us for third most active year on record for named storms. Speaking of our pattern through the end of November....are you ready for your Turkey Day sneak peek? Okay here we go!

Gobble, gobble, gobble! There are a lot of folks asking me what it will be like for their northern relatives when they come visit over Thanksgiving. They want warm weather to go with their mashed potatoes and cranberries. Our average Thanksgiving highs are in the lower 70s but I think it could top that this year without a doubt. The overall pattern across North America is expected to flip but not until after Thanksgiving into December. The cold west, warm east set-up due to a strong high pressure north of Hawaii should continue for at least the next two weeks. But there are signs of Greenland blocking by the end of the month which would likely help bring some of the cold air locked up in Alaska and northwest Canada into Florida by early December. Look at this incredible snow map of Alaska. The whole state is buried!

Now Alaska is seeing what I am calling a BLIZZICANE or its strongest storm to hit the Bering Sea area since 1913. Wind gusts of 90 mph with snow! Can you imagine. The pressure on the storm is 943 mb which you would normally see in a category 4 hurricane. So not to get side-tracked but we really need to realize how lucky we are and that this pattern is a volatile one which could hammer the Midwest and then the East Coast as we head into December. The snow cover will allow the cold air to build in a big way and it has nowhere to go but eventually farther south and east. It is not a matter of if but when and I still think it will be later than sooner which is good news for Uncle Ron and Aunt Debbie! But for my friends reading this from the Midwest I think you are skating on thin ice and there could be a Thanksgiving Blizzard in your neighborhood. If you are in Wisconsin or Minnesota be alert. Farther south in Indiana your weather will flip like a switch and you need to have the snow shovels ready by late November.

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Here is the North American Oscillation index which drives our temperatures in Florida over the cooler months. If you see it is red or positve it usually is a good sign for me to be able to forecast above normal temperatures. The last two winters we were stuck in the blue or negative which means the cold air would just not go away with one frost after another! In this pattern we can still get some cold shots of air but they do not last long and we warm right back up. So while will have some ups and downs with our temperatures over the next couple weeks, overall the warmer air should win out along with the sunshine!

Tomorrow we will talk more about our frost chances for interior areas away from the waterways by Saturday morning. But remember the chill will not stick around very long. Now you know why. Have a great day and enjoy the sunshine!

Good Viewing for Tonight's Close Encounter of the Asteroid Kind

2011-11-08T17:02:00.002-05:00

November 8, 2011

Our old friend is back! It was sure nice to see the sun again after what seemed to be a month of darkness. Well we were really stuck in the clouds for three and a half days but this is the sunshine state so it felt much, much longer. This was all due to our newest tropical storm that formed. But we will get to that. Of much more urgency is an asteroid moving toward earth at nearly 30,000 mph as I type this. Now we are not in danger but it is a reminder of our earth's turbulent past and a future that will inevitably include more catastrophic collisions. The dinosaurs if they were here could attest to this.

Asteroid 2005 YU55 will be about 201,000 miles away or its closest to the earth at 6:28 p.m. This distance is closer than the moon currently is which is about 248,000 miles away. Pretty impressive! The timing on mostly clear skies looks great but this asteroid is the shade of dark chocolate since it is a class-C asteroid which means it is made primarily of carbon. So you will need a high powered telescope with a mirror greater than six inches. You need to look high in the southern sky just to the right of the Pegasus Square. Our best viewing would likely be between 9 and 10 p.m. in this part of the sky. It is moving quickly and is faint so it will be a challenge to even the more sophisticated stargazer.

What is amazing is it will only be 150,000 miles from the moon. The good news is we will be able to study this asteroid which will hopefully give us an idea of what we are dealing in the future when we may not be so lucky. The good news is we should be asteroid free for at least the next 100 years. It goes to show you how fragile life is and that you should never take it for granted. If this 1,300 foot space rock hit it would have left a 5 mile crater about 2,000 feet deep. A tsunami wave of 80 feet would have reached all our continents and it would be like 65,000 Hiroshima bombs going off at the same time. So we can count our blessings! We are safe but it will come so close that the earth will effect its spin which takes 18 hours to make one revolution! That is a lot to think about isn't it! Our next close encounter of the asteroid kind will not take place until 2029. Good viewing and please send any great pictures to weather@firstcoastnews.com. Thanks!

I want to wish my Dad a Happy Birthday. I will be going out to celebrate tonight. The best gift my Dad ever gave me was teaching me about the different clouds one day at the playground and always believing in me! Thanks Dad! I love you!

Speaking of clouds this would make both me and my Dad proud! What a beautiful job by NASA! We have a full-fledged tropical storm now. We talked about this over the weekend! What started out as a storm with both mid-latitude and tropical characteristics is now all tropical since it has had about 48 hours to spin like a top over tropical waters of 80.5 degrees just above the 80 degree threshold. Its biggest impact we have already felt with the lingering clouds, swells, dangerous seas, rip currents, beach erosion and northeast breezes. The good news is it will stay out to sea and Bermuda should only see a few gusts of 40 mph along with some rain showers. It will weaken by late week as it encounters cooler water and wind shear.

Sean is being kicked out by a major front that brought those amazing Oklahoma tornadoes yesterday. The main local impact for us at home will be a couple of very nice warm November days! Yes, I said warm. We have been running about 4 to 5 degrees below normal so far this moth and we are long overdue. We can keep the sunshine in the forecast to boot. A sneak peek to this upcoming weekend does not hold for another nor'easter! How about a southeaster. I will be back to explain more tomorrow along with a turkey day forecast that will have you gobbling for more!

Nor'easter Taking its Cues from a Storm That May Be Named Sean!

2011-11-06T10:18:00.002-05:00

Sunday, November 6, 2011

Today our nor'easter continues. A small craft advisory continues along with a high surf advisory. Northeast wind gusts on the open seas at 25-35 kts. Surf 8-10 feet with minor beach erosion. Seas a monstrous 10-16 feet. Keep the dingy at the dock if possible today. On land a gusty northeast wind continues at 20-30 mph. We do have a warmer layer of air but it is trapped 5,000 feet above us and it looks like it will have trouble mixing to the surface. This inversion caused by our nor'easter will have three big impacts on our weather. It will keep us cloudy throughout the day. It was stabilize the atmosphere with only a few sprinkles possible. Thirdly, temperatures will struggle into the 60s.

Our sluggish weather and nor'easter is taking its cues from an area of low pressure near the Bahamas spinning in place. You can see it on the satellite picture with the big swirl above. There is a possibility it could become subtropical Sean since it is now moving over 81 degree water. It will sit over this tropical water for at least 48 hours. This system's main impact on us at home would be to keep our nor'easter howling for another couple days. Right now the National Hurricane Center is giving it a 10% chance of being a hybrid storm.

This week will feature a supercell of storms across the deep South and it may impact the Panhandle of Florida with severe weather. By time it moves our way it will weaken but we cannot rule out a thunderstorm by late Thursday. We will turn very warm ahead of this front with highs bouncing back to near 80. Keep your eyes to the sky this week! We have an asteroid that is passing only about 3,000 miles from earth and we should be able to see it on Tuesday night! Our Veterans Day Parade looks sunny and breezy with temperatures in the lower 60s. Have a great week and keep looking up! That is the way to go!

I will see you tonight at 6, 6:30, and 11. Dan Hicken will be in the house and you never know what may happen on the set! I will also post more details of our big week ahead here on the blog this evening. I am actually running an hour behind today unlike most folks because my phone turned the clock back two hours. That is a fun story I will share as well here on the blog...although not so fun for me when I woke up. The main thing is I did get to the station in time for the early bird show! God bless! Have a great day!

Gales of November today, showers move in tonight!

2011-11-05T10:44:00.002-04:00

Saturday, November 5, 2011

I had lots of feedback from soccer moms this morning on Good Morning Jacksonville and it can be summed up in three words...COLD, COLD, COLD....Suzanne was kind enough to send me in this picture between games. It also gave her a chance to thaw out her so-called frozen ears. She has some afternoon games to go to and unfortunately it will not feel much better. What a great Mom! The kids will appreciate this eventually even if you have to wait a few years....lol. What made those mid-50s feel so much colder was that north breeze! Cover up those ears for the afternoon games because it will only get worse with gusts at times from 30 to 35 mph.

It is that time of year when we get nor'easters that fire up off in the Atlantic caused by cold north winds meeting our tropical Gulf Stream that is still close to 80 degrees. This temperature gradient helps form a natural area of low pressure in the atmosphere and as we know the wind takes its cues from pressure differences between our ocean low and higher pressure to the north causes the wind to blow with gusto! The northeast wind is force 8 on the Beaufort Wind Scale which means we will have gale force wind gusts near 40 mph. To put it in perspective you only need 39 mph sustained winds around a warm core low pressure to have a named tropical storm. While not a tropical storm, we will can call this storm the Force 8 Nor'easter and it will be a force to be reckoned with throughout the weekend into next week!

The good news is we will not have a raw rain to go with the wind and ominous clouds today. Here is our futurecast pinpoint when and where we can expect the rain. Shower activity should hold off at the beaches until this evening and will not spread inland until late tonight. This means it looks good downtown for the fair tonight as well. The big story again today will be the chilly wind. Take the ear plugs and jackets if you are heading out to the Naval Air Show. Highs will only be in the lower to middle 60s with wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph.

A gale warning (wind gusts of 39 mph or higher) will continue offshore with 10-15 foot seas and wind gusts to 40 mph. A high surf advisory is also in effect for minor beach erosion due to 8 foot breakers today.

Rip currents will remain dangerous even for surfers. This nor'easter will linger through at least Monday with showers becoming more likely Sunday into Monday. But rain coverage should only be 30% tops and it will not be an all day rain! Check out the European accumulated rainfall map above. It shows most of the rain should stay east of highway 301 and many of us will not see one drop of rain this weekend especially in Georgia and interior Florida. So I would not cancel plans but just have your umbrellas handy. Temperatures will remain below normal with the cloud cover and a northeast wind continuing on Sunday. While warmer highs will only be near 70 once again which is a good six degrees below our 30 year average.

Our long-range forecast includes temperatures bouncing back near 80 by Wednesday and Thursday of next week ahead of our new weather system that could bring a severe weather outbreak to portions of the deep South and Midwest. By time it gets here it should be in a weakened state with a few showers returning late Thursday. Have a wonderful weekend! Enjoy your extra hour of sleep and turn those clocks back one hour before going to sleep tonight. It is also a good time to change your smoke detector batteries. Take care. My wife has some scrumptious chilly waiting for me. I will see you tonight at 6, 7, and 11! Thanks for reading and watching!

Resplendent, Riveting Rollercoaster Temperature Ride! Hang on, it is just the beginning!

2011-10-22T14:42:00.003-04:00

Saturday, October 22, 2011

What a day it has been! The positive pink energy in the resplendent riveting weather was unmatched anywhere else in the country. This was the scene in downtown Jacksonville this morning and the Race for the Cure was incredible. I did not get to partake in it since I was doing Good Morning Jacksonville but I did go out and shake hands with folks and even paws! Even the dogs were out showing their support so we can finish not just this 5K but breast cancer once and for all.

The bright sunshine and wonderful heart-felt stories warmed us all up in a hurry which was a good thing. We officially tied the record low of 39 in Jacksonville set back in 1976. It was even colder at Cecil Field with reports of frost on some rooftops which is about a month early. You compare that with lows of 50 just 8 miles away on the tropical St. Johns River and that is pretty amazing. The river temperature is still a balmy 77 degrees thanks to it flowing from south to north from Central Florida. I know the manatees were relieved!

Even more riveting was the fact our temperatures rose about 30 degrees from 7 a.m. to 1 p.m. and before all is said and done we should top out at 70! You can thank the polar air mass which is very dry along with our Florida sunshine for the nice comfortable afternoon. The only clouds I could find anywhere close to home were made in our television studio this morning by Atomic Allie! I need to get some of that dry ice so I can become the mad meteorologist for Halloween! LOL. You also see it was nice having Deanna Fene in the house this morning filling in for Lenworth Kiese. She is always great to work with that is for sure.

The second part of the weekend will bring some of nature's clouds but not enough to keep us from enjoying mostly sunny skies and any rain shower activity will likely stay offshore and not impact our weather. We may not have any rain showers but plenty of meteor showers to enjoy tonight! Make sure to look southeast especially earlier tonight before increasing clouds move in toward morning. There should be 10 to 15 shooting stars per hour or about twice the normal. This debris hitting our atmosphere is from Halley's comet.

But do not get too relaxed in this pattern. We have big weather-makers taking shape. We are watching the southern Caribbean which could spawn a tropical depression or possible named storm and a disturbance that will bring a huge snowstorm to portions of Denver and possibly the Midwest and Northeast this week.These two systems could combine forces to give us one heck of an interesting set-up by later next week and weekend. I see our temperature roller coaster just getting started with possibly a 50 degree range! So let's all enjoy this nice weather while we can. Next week we have everything in your seven day forecast except SNOW!

I look forward to seeing you at 6, 7, and 11 with your seven day forecast and I will tell you why this wild pattern may be something to get used to as we head into the winter! See you soon!

Colder in Sunny Florida than Buffalo, New York and the coldest is yet to come!

2011-10-20T13:31:00.004-04:00

Thursday, October 20, 2011

Mostly sunny skies will continue with chilly breezes. Highs will only be in the lower to middle 60s. A small craft advisory will be discontinued after 5 p.m. offshore. A sunset will be at 6:51 p.m. tonight and once it goes down the winds will diminish and the skies will clear. Expect plummeting temperatures into the lower to middle 50s by 8 p.m. to near 60 at the beaches.

Tonight will be even colder than last night with lows near 40 inland to the upper 40s beaches. Keep the jackets handy as temperatures will only slowly moderate into the weekend.

A sneak peek for the Jaguars game: It looks good for tailgating Monday night with comfortable temperatures in the lower to middle 60s.

Strongest Cold front of the season arrives! Get out the Jackets!

2011-10-19T12:36:00.000-04:00

Wednesday, October 19, 2011

It is easy to pick out the big changes on the way. Notice the wavy clouds over the Gulf of Mexico. These are cold air stratocumulus clouds caused by rapid, intense cooling of the atmosphere and this polar air mass is being ushered in by a cold front that is now howling through the area with wind gusts of 35 mph and brief heavy downpours.

We may have missed out on the severe weather last night but we are not missing out on one of the strongest surges of cold air this early in the season on record. I am heading to the attic to find the family jackets which will be a necessity by morning. The record for Jacksonville is 40 set back in 1989. I do not think it will get that cold at the airport. We will have too much wind and not totally clear out the clouds until the wee hours of the morning. This will keep lows in Jacksonville closer to the middle 40s with near 50 at the beaches and along the river. But, sure the normally coldest spots from Cecil Field into interior Georgia could see lows easily drop to near 40. The coldest morning will likely be Friday. I will be back to explain why and even show you the beautiful pumpkin moon pictures from this past weekend. So how strong is this front? Five-thousand foot temperatures will be dropping 2 to 3 degrees per hour for the next 12 hours. That tells me COLD AIR ADVECTION means business and this chilly autumn air mass may be here to stay for a few days. Have a great afternoon and stay warm!

Squally Saturday, Dangerous Surf, and the Nor'easter with no Name

2011-10-08T13:04:00.001-04:00

Ponte Vedra electrified! Wow! The nor'easter with no name made a name for itself last night even if the National Hurricane Center does not name it Rina. This is not your typical nor'easter, not even close. This nor'easter will combine forces with a very broad unorganized area of low pressure developing in the Florida Straights and southwest Gulf of Mexico. Take a look.

There is so much shear involved and the temperatures aloft are so cold that this if it was named it would be called extratropical Rina. The latest satellite picture shows a burst of thunderstorms that have become a bit more organized. But also notice the tops are being sheared to the northeast. The area of low pressure is so large that it would be tough for it not to be torn apart even more by the Florida Peninsula as it rides to the north. So no we are not talking a hurricane or typical tropical storm. But maybe two systems that form into a formidle storm called Rina. What it means for us is unusually heavy amounts of rain, high surf, flooding, beach erosion, and yes even damaging wind gusts possible outside of thunderstorms. Take a look at the latest rainfall forecasts! Pretty impressive!

Keep in mind this is 8 weeks worth of rain in less than a week! Now timing is everything and based on the latest model data in this early afternoon on Saturday the worst part of this hybrid storm will be Sunday night into Monday. Not good news for the Monday morning commute but better news for your weekend plans. This tropical low pressure to the south will take its time developing due to high wind shear.

We are not talking about a total washout. But points farther south in Central and South Florida on our Saturday into Sunday will see some big problems including rain amounts over 6". Be careful traveling south. The farther south you go the worse the weather. This heavier, more widespread rain is what will likely move our way late Sunday hopefully after the Jags game. You will still need the ponchos but hopefully this weawther model is correct which does show the heaviest widespread rain south of Everbank Field until after everybody gets home safely.

But this will change by Sunday night at 10 p.m. as our two storms team up. I am not only worried about coastal flooding but inland flooding and drainage problems in those normally flood-prone spots in St. Augustine from King Street to near downtown Jacksonville in the San Marco and Riverside areas. Things could get really nasty if we get those heavy downpours occur near times of high tide. High tide is 7:40 p.m. Sunday and 7:58 a.m. on Monday in St. Augustine. Dowtown we have a high tide 3:50 a.m. Monday morning and again at 4:16 p.m. in the afternoon. Mayport has a high tide at 7:51 p.m. on Sunday and 8:12 a.m. on Monday. High surf advisories will continue all the way through Monday with seas building from 12-16 feet. Surf could easily make it over 12 feet. But this is not a storm you want to surf or swim in with those deadly rip currents.

The howling east-northeast wind will continue to bring gusts from 40 to 45 mph with maybe gusts closer to 50 mph outside of thunderstorms by Monday morning. This is high enough to cause power outages and bring some trees down especially with saturated ground. Make sure to secure all loose objects in your yard. It looks like this nor'easter with no name will not relinquish the worst of its grip on our area until later on Monday. You stay safe and tonight I will talk more about this unusual nor'easter and also have an optimistic Jags forecast that calls for more of a white-out rather than a wash-out before our nor'easter gets really nasty!

Not your typical Nor'easter! Batten Down the Hatches

2011-10-07T05:18:00.002-04:00

Good Friday morning! It was quite a wake-up call this morning with some thunder and heavy downpours for some of us. This activity will only increase and become more widespread as we head through the weekend into next week. We have a local nor'easter that is just starting to crank up.

But this is a nor'easter with an attitude. Instead of only lasting a day or two this one could be a five day event with improving conditions not moving our way until at least Tuesday of next week. We are not only concerned about beach erosion and coastal flooding but inland flooding and drainage problems at the times of high tide this weekend.

It is easy to see why with the latest models showing the heaviest rain forecast I have seen all year long. That is right! Some areas could see in excess of a half-foot of rain. Some areas will see twice our normal amount of monthly rain in less than a week. If there is good news is that this could be a real drought-buster for many. We are still in a 10 inch deficit in many portions of Florida since 2010, while many areas in southeast Georgia need 20 inches of rain to finally break the drought.

This nor'easter will be energized by a tropical low pressure forming along an old stationary front in the Florida Straights. This will move northward by late Sunday into Monday. So believe it or not the worst of this nor'easter may in fact hold off until after the Jags game which would be nice! Now if this subtropical low pressure is named Rina it will not become a hurricane but the bad news is it will enhance our flooding, wind and beach erosion.

Let's go autumn! October comes in more like November!

2011-10-02T09:52:00.002-04:00

It is great to check in with you! I have been a popular guy around town this weekend with folks enjoying our nice first real taste of autumn. You know it is autumn when there is not a cloud in the sky. The thunderheads are nowhere to be found even though thunderstorm season really does not end until later this month. Yes! This is a true continental polar air mass we have been tracking since last week near the Arctic Circle and not only is the air mass dry but it is comfortable! You see the upward cheerleaders yesterday at Fruit Cove Baptist church cheering on the great games and real football weather! The baby of the Prangley family, Lauren is on the far left. I know it is hard to believe how fast they grow up. There is a good reason folks were ready for this big change! Look no further than below.

We had, count them, 114 days of 90 degrees or above in Jacksonville. This is the most 90 degree days since 1955! We had the second most on record since 1871. We usually average 80. It may have not been a top 10 hottest summer but the 90 degree days along with the humidity made it feel like it was. Or if you live in Alma, Georgia it really was the hottest summer on record since you did not receive as much rain as areas farther south. The sun's energy was put to work and very efficiently heated you up! You had an incredible 14 days of 100 degrees or higher. I also do not want to forget our friends in St. Simons Island. You had your second hottest summer on record! The good news is I do not have any more 90 degree days in your seven day forecast. The big story is this autumn air mass and why I think it will stick around for awhile.

It all starts with Ophelia which is our third major hurricane of the season. You see the eye this morning which is a little more ragged as it now weakens over cooler water. But it still has winds of 125 mph and last night it was an incredible sight to show on the air when it had a very distinct eye with sustained winds of 140 mph. Ophelia may still brush Newfoundland with gusts near 60 mph and heavy rain. But the big story here at home is even though it stayed well east of us by about 1,000 miles this deep tropical cyclone and area of low pressure has helped build a huge area of high pressure over much of North America. Our clear skies go all the way back to the Rocky Mountains and into southern Canada. Nature likes to keep a balance and for every big low pressure or in this case a hurricane you have a very strong high pressure. Nature likes to keep an equilibrium.

So if you notice our weather maps this week, they will not change much thanks to this sprawling area of high pressure. Temperatures will slowly moderate back closer to normal by Thursday but not before 100 year plus records are challenged once again tonight and Tuesday morning. Slow changes are the weather words of the day. Last night we had a record low at St. Simons Island with 51 degrees, Cecil Field hit 44 which missed the 1876 record by one degree! Jacksonville was 46 or 3 degrees shy of the record. The cold spot was just north of Alma with a low temperature of 39 reported near Baxley! Forget a taste of fall, some areas felt like winter this morning! Tonight I think we will have even better radiational cooling conditions and we could actually set more records including Jacksonville challenging the 1876 record of 45 degrees. It should be interesting.

But the great part is we still do live in Florida and when you combine this polar air with 100% Florida sunshine it warms up in a hurry. That is why I am calling for nearly perfect TEAL-GATING weather with temperatures near 70 by noon. Game time temperatures will range between 73-77. The best weather in all of the NFL is right here in Jacksonville, no doubt about it and I think we will have one of the best games. Get out and enjoy but do not forget the sunscreen. Tonight I will be back to talk about better chances of rain by next weekend and how low we will go. Also if you get a chance before the game you may want to enjoy some of those nice head high sets being generated by Ophelia. Have fun in the sun! See you soon.

Nature's Sunday Scoreboard: Tropics 16 Florida 5

2011-09-25T09:57:00.002-04:00

Sunday, September 25, 2011

It is teal day Sunday or should I say steambath Sunday. It will feel like 100 degrees once again today. The big news this morning is our 16th named storm of the tropical season has formed in the Atlantic and its name is Philippe. You see the blob of clouds just off Africa. Philippe will likely stay a tropical storm during its lifespan and like Ophelia become a fish storm or re curve out to sea. What has been interesting this tropical season is we have had a lot of named storms but only 3 hurricanes. Our average number of storms is about 10 with 6 hurricanes and right now it is a good possibility we could go through all 21 names of this years alphabet which includes Rina, Sean, Tammy, Vince, and Whitney.

Watch the Caribbean as we head into October that is for sure with a La Nina re-developing. Keep in mind Florida's busiest month for tropical storm or hurricane impacts is September followed by October and hurricane season stretches all the way to November 30. Heck, we have even had 2 December storms. The only months without a recorded tropical system hitting Florida are January and March. Now where does the 5 come from on nature's scoreboard? Well, we should have had five hurricanes by now since Wilma last hit Florida back in October of 2005. Yes, we are in a hurricane drought to go along with our rainfall drought. Remember Wilma hit South Florida with 105 mph winds the last week of October back in 2005, so we still have a long way to go that is for sure. We need to keep our guard up. As Yogi Berra said, "it ain't over till its over" and even then with nature you never say never.

Today here at home the tropics even have a bearing on our weather. We have a tropical system trying to form into Rina off the Florida east coast. Yesterday the hurricane center gave it a 30% for development and today it is less than 5%, do to strong wind shear tearing it apart. But, I do think this weak system will steal the thunder from a front moving our way from the west. So instead of 70% rain coverage I look for 40% coverage with the best chances south and east of Jacksonville. Keep this in mind if you are deep sea fishing today.

The farther out you go to catch the big one the better your rain chance. Here at home we had more excitement yesterday with our third day in a row of funnel-filled skies around the area. The funnel cloud was spotted near Pomona Park. Check out this great picture sent in from Linda Wargo showing what all the hoopla was about. Luckily, we went to Doppler radar and the weak rotation that caused the funnel to form quickly dissipated and did not reach the ground. About one in ten of these funnels reach the ground in Florida. Luckily yesterday the wind in all directions of the upper-atmosphere were blowing in the same direction. We had a few outflow boundaries to this storms northeast and southwest that likely caused this funnel to form but there just was not enough support for it to reach the ground.

Today I do not expect funnel weather as our helicity values or expected spin in the atmosphere is even lower with a weakening front to our west and system to our east, but never say never. All strong to severe thunderstorms have the potential of producing tornadoes and not all storms behave. No two storms are alike. My main threats today will remain brief heavy downpours and lightning. Live Doppler radar is there for us in case nature tries to pull any surprises.

The big thing once again today is that it will not be a washout and not to cancel plans. Yes, you can still go to the beach. Cheryl took this shot of some great kids taking part in Surfers for Autism yesterday at Jacksonville Beach. Thank you! This is always such an inspirational event! I wish I could stand up like that on a board. I went surfing a couple weeks ago and I am still recovering, lol! You stay cool and just think if you tune in tonight I will show you when we can open up the windows and enjoy some real refreshing autumn breezes! Hint: this time next week I will be very popular! I better go and need to head to church. Did not have time to proof read! Hope it makes sense! Have a great day!

First fall weekend brings more steamy storms and possible waterspouts!

2011-09-24T12:27:00.004-04:00

Saturday, September 24, 2011

Wow! This is how you want to start off your weekend. What a magnificent picture sent in from the beach this morning. The cumulonimbus clouds were casting a shadow and scattering the first rays of sunshine upward since the sun was officially still below the horizon. This is a bittersweet picture if you want a totally dry day today. This phenomenon called crepuscular rays tell us the air is full of water, dust, and salt particles that are in abundance. These condensation nucleii will help form raindrops with daytime heating today over the land areas. I do think the farther west you go today the less the amount of rain while east of I-95 we could once again see some isolated 2 inch rain amounts with flood advisories. Areas that will see the heaviest rain today will include points south and east of downtown Jacksonville. It will not be an all-day rain with most of the storms between 3 p.m. and 7 p.m. so do not cancel your plans but keep an eye to the southwest sky. That is where the storms will be moving from.

Here is one of those spine-tingling pictures sent in showing nature's raw power. Amanda captured this waterspout just offshore Mayport. I estimated wind speeds near 50 mph. Remember this time of year with the ocean temperatures in the 80s and a light and variable wind in a stagnant stormy pattern can quickly pop these phenomena. On Thursday just after 3 p.m. we had numerous boundaries collide over the ocean. There was an east-southeast wind from the ocean meeting a west wind and then add in an outflow boundary from the northwest from developing thunderstorms and you had plenty of twisting and turning in the air and the warm water added to the needed instability. You can also get waterspouts that form from a line of cumulus clouds with flat bases. The Florida Keys have most of their waterspout reports on nice sunny days!

Yesterday, St. Augustine also got in on this waterspout weather pattern. This picture is a bit blurry but you can make out another one of those ominous funnels. Are more on the way? I would not be surprised. We will have to watch those warm ocean waters and thunderstorm boundaries in this active pattern. We may not be done yet because the atmosphere is in a holding pattern with a slow-moving front likely not pushing through until early next week. The good news is that I am not expecting these waterspouts to reach land or move over land. They are being driven solely by the bath ocean water. If you are boating they can cause damage to your boat so always move away from them at a 90 degree angle.

The biggest threats today on land will be localized flooding and lightning. Be careful and remember not to cross roads covered by water. This summer steambath pattern is showing signs of releasing its grip on us by later next week. So while this is the first full autumn weekend it will actually not really feel like it until next weekend. It is this warm, tropical air that we can blame for an occasional burst of rain this weekend. But we should not be complaining. Until the relentless rain started early last week we were off to our driest September since 2003. Jacksonville is still about an inch below normal along with Brunswick. St. Augustine is still about 1.5" to 2" below normal as well especially to the north of the Bridge of Lions. Tonight at 6, 7, and 11 I will tally up some fresh rainfall totals and let you know where those storms are and where they are moving in time for your evening cookouts.

Since it will not feel like autumn until next week here is a nice autumn update from the National Park Service in the stunning Smoky Mountains.

There is just a hint of color in the earliest changing trees at this time. A few sourwoods, dogwoods, maples, and birches are beginning to show a little color, but the mountains are still overwhelmingly green at all elevations. Perhaps more notable now are the fall wildflowers such as cardinal flower, black-eyed Susan, coreopsis, great blue lobelia, skunk goldenrod, southern harebell, ironweed, and a variety of asters. The bright fruits on trees such as dogwoods and shrubs such as hearts-a-bustin are eye-catching now.

Peak fall color this year in the Smokies will be the last two weeks of October into early November. Here in Jacksonville we see most of our brightest leaves from Thanksgiving to the Winter Solstice just before Christmas! Have a great weekend and thanks for reading. Make sure to send in your pictures to weather@firstcoastnews.com. See you soon.

Keep those plans today but summer may go out soggy!

2011-09-18T10:21:00.000-04:00

Sunday, September 18, 2011

Jacksonville Beach has been the place to be if you are wondering where all your rain has been the last couple years. Notice our tower cam picking up on more strange objects falling out of the sky! Unfortunately the needed rain has not panned out over most of the area this weekend but hang in there it looks like we do have plenty of change on the way with the change of seasons! It is autumnal equinox week which means autumn begins on Friday!

First things first. Today is a big day to grill out. It is Jaguar day and notice I made a graphic with a table full of food and a dry deck! This means we can fire up the grill with only isolated showers expected, mainly east of the river once again today. The rain will only impact about 30% of us with more teal and gray than rain. Flagler County has a flood watch closer to where the actual stationary front is located. But even there I am not expecting anything like we saw Friday night with most of the heavy rain staying south of Flagler Beach. I think Volusia County would have the better chance of any flooding on our Sunday based on the latest Live Doppler Radar scan. So here at home today the weather words are do not cancel your plans and please do grill up a cheeseburger, after all it is National Cheeseburger Day! But we just cannot keep going on like this. It is convenient we are missing out on the rain today for outdoor plans but it is not all good based on this drought update you see below.

Even Jacksonville Beach and Ponte Vedra that had nearly 10 inches of rain are still in a severe drought. The beaches have been the driest portion of our viewing area over the last couple years. Most deficits are still running at about 20 inches of rain! The low retention ponds certainly are a sign of the drought taking a huge toll on our water table. How badly do we need rain? Well I did research yesterday and Friday night was considered a 1 in 50 year flood event for the beaches that saw the deluge of rain along A1A where some spots had 3 feet of water in the road. This was still not enough to even put a good dent in the drought. That is sad! Research also shows that our chances of us seeing another more widespread 10 inch event are only at about 2% which is not good news. We just need a pattern change with several weeks of above average rain and soon before our thunderstorm season ends in a few weeks.

But we have plenty of hope on the latest model runs just in! Notice we have another major latitudinal trough or think of it as a dip in the jet stream for the East Coast late next week into the weekend. Here is what it will look like next Saturday, September 24th. So even though Ophelia is likely to form we would not see any moisture from it as it curves out to sea. But the pattern is changing in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Notice we have an upper-level high pressure forming near Kingston. This sets up a good moisture conveyor belt for us here at home with a nice tropical southwest wind. It should really start to kick in by the middle of the week. At the same time we have another strong front moving our way from the west. This will tap Gulf moisture to work along with the Caribbean moisture. In the Atlantic a nice moist flow around the Bermuda high will set up as well. No wonder the latest models are showing maybe our soggiest pattern in weeks as we round out summer! Bring it on. Make sure to join me tonight and check back here on the blog and I will have more specifics on how much rain is on the way! See you soon. Go Jags!!

Heaviest Rain in 3 years Blitzes the Beaches

2011-09-17T11:59:00.005-04:00

Saturday September 17, 2011

Now that is what you call a deluge or a local nor'easter! You are looking at what portions of A1A looked like overnight especially from Jacksonville Beach all the way to Ponte Vedra Beach. These areas have a rainfall deficit of about two feet over the past two years and in one night we made up about a foot of it! There was a good swath of 8 to 10 inch rains as you crossed the Intracoastal Waterway. Several cars stalled out in the flooded roadways and some had water inside their cars up to their knees. A1A had some spots with 3 feet of water early this morning! Luckily, everybody is okay which isn't always the case when you have a flood event taking place at night. Most folks drown in their cars because they do not realize it only takes about a foot of moving water to sweep their vehicle. So the motto this morning on Good Morning Jacksonville is Turn Around Don't Drown and never cross a roadway covered by water!

Your only live doppler radar lit up more than it had in just over 3 years since Tropical Storm Fay ambushed the beaches with over 12 inches of rain on August 22, 2008. Here is a good picture of the rainfall estimates. Notice how it was a thin, convergent band of heavy rain which is often the case with these local nor'easters this time of year. This is local nor'easter season when we can see the heaviest rainfall of the year from these weather phenomenon. It is another reason why September is our wettest month, with rainfall averaging just over 8 inches. Last night some areas saw a months worth of rainfall and then some in only a few hours! The only weather events that actually bring more rain to the Jacksonville areas would come from tropical systems. Check out some of these specific rainfall totals!

Some folks would have called in rainfall but they said they could not get an accurate reading since their rain gauges overflowed. George in Craig Field sent this picture in showing his gauge filled to the brim as the rain bore down. Other areas this morning near Cecil Field and Keystone Heights were wondering what all the fuss was about and still have me crossed off their Christmas list until they get their needed rain. Yes, I am not everybody's best friend on this Saturday!

This rain was a huge deal because rain gauges have had more ash in them than rain drops it seems over the past several months. Our fire season which usually ends in early July has continued here into September. It certainly has been one of our longest fire seasons ever and it may just continue right into next year. Some folks at the beach cannot remember the last time it rained that hard and said it was like a wall of water that came in off the ocean in an instant. That is another reason why having the only live doppler radar is important. We do get big weather events in Florida and more often than you think.

You see what caused last night's drenching. Folks at the beach said it was an incredible lightning show to go with those mind-boggling rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches an hour. We had a cold front stall out over the area and this was the strongest front of the season. So what happened is you had a clash of the seasons as much cooler air collided with water temperatures still in the lower to middle 80s! This created a very unstable atmosphere and you had training of rain due to the stalled out front with the perfect convergence set up as the cooler northeast wind hit the warm Atlantic Ocean.

The rest of this afternoon notice we will have more clouds than rain and I am not expecting any more flooding. The clouds will tend to stabilize the atmosphere and even though we still have a stalled front over the area the main area of low pressure will remain well offshore. Boaters will see most of the rain along with a small craft advisory well offshore with a gusty northeast wind near 30 knots. at times. So the areas that were missed last night will not have much rain to write home about today as well with less than .25" expected with many of us just remaining dry. Just keep in mind if enough sunshine does pop out in the inland locations this could be enough to cause some brief heavy downpours and this includes the Gators game. But any rain will not last very long like we saw last night at the beaches.

There officially still is a flood watch for Duval and St. Johns County which means we will be watching things closely but I am not expecting any more flooding today. Tonight we will have to watch areas from St. Augustine southward to Flagler Beach for maybe another heavier band of showers that sets up that may drop over an inch of rain along the beaches. But right now I just do not see a repeat of last night.

The second part of our weekend may bring another surge of moisture in time for Sunday afternoon but after last night let's just take it one day at a time. I do not think Sunday will be a washout by any means.

Enjoy today's cooler temperatures. Many areas, especially in Georgia may not get out of the 70s! We have real football weather! We also cleared out most of the smoke, now hopefully we can get some rain for the rest of us. The long-range models are at least favoring more rain chances going through the middle of next week. Our pattern favors more clouds and rain than sun over the next couple weeks so if you have missed out on the rain there is hope. We will talk more about this and have a drought update here on the blog and live on the air tonight at 7 p.m. and 11 p.m. Make sure to check back and tune in! Have a wonderful weekend.

Flying the Red, White, Blue in plenty of sunshine

2011-09-11T08:15:00.003-04:00

Sunday, September 11, 2011

We can fly the red, white and blue with pride today in plenty of sunshine. There will still be a few isolated showers and thunderstorms on your only live doppler radar but the big story will be the hot weather once again and it will be more humid with highs back up to near 90 for inland areas and the middle 80s beaches. The question is will the added humidity pop any storms. Let's look at the meteorological X's and O's.

Notice the O's represent two weather systems or nature's pass rush that is trying to get to us during the big game. But the X is our offensive line which looks like it should hold up well since we still have enough dry air in place in the middle and upper-levels and both systems do not have much moisture to bully our guards over. But we have to be careful of a turnover in the atmosphere that can happen in a hurry when a seabreeze moves onshore like we will see during the afternoon. This is the only reason I am keeping in a low chance of rain during the game. So let's check it out!

I am going for more of a roar from the Jags and crowd than nature! Highs will reach 90 during the game. But in the stands with the humidity and in the sunshine it will feel like over 100 degrees. Take advantage of reduced prices on water at the stadium since the forecast does call for 90 or above which meets the threshold. I wish I could give us a 100% of no rain but for now I am just holding the football with two hands and guarding against the turnover so I kept in a low 20% chance of a pop up shower or thunderstorm.

If something does pop I do not see a repeat of last year's two hour lightning storm. In fact, make sure you bring the hats and sunscreen. If I was going to the game I would not be taking the poncho, although my Mom always takes one for good luck since we know how Florida weather can be.

We had a glorious sunrise over the stadium this morning that bodes well for the forecast today. Now what do the models have on timing if anything does pop. Well here is the latest.

You see a few isolated showers that will try to move in with a seabreeze by early afternoon combining forces with an old dying frontal boundary with that slim chance of rain over the stadium after 2 p.m. The deeper moisture needed in the atmosphere that fuels thunderstorms looks to stay well southeast of Everbank Field. You can see that below.

The bottom line is the main player to watch on the weather field that will bring us our best chance of rain is the trough of low pressure moving in from the west but it will not arrive until later this evening and Monday. But again coverage does not look all that great. I would say 30% or less of us see rain.

Most of the deeper moisture has in essence been gobbled up by a tropical parade of storms over the past couple weeks. It is ashame we have had very little of this rain and it does concern me about a worsening drought and smoky conditions returning once again this week. Annual rainfall from the tropics is huge for us.

Where is the rain? Here is the answer to last night's PRANG FACT I used at 11 p.m. last night which really sums it up. Lee and its remnants have dropped enough rain to fill up Everbank Stadium 70,000 times. That is right! The United States has seen 45 trillion gallons of water unleashed by nature just by Lee. I feel like it has been a forgotten storm I think folks in the Northeast will never forget it and Lee and Irene I think will both have their names retired with the likes of Dora and Andrew. Here at home we will be lucky to see more than a few drops over the next couple days and if you do get some rain you are one of the lucky ones. God bless you and America! Have a wonderful day!

What a difference 47 years makes! We can cheer on the home team and weather!

2011-09-10T13:16:00.003-04:00

Saturday September 10, 2011

Here is the infamous picture of what Dora did to downtown Jacksonville 47 years ago today. Yes, the Main Street bridge was about the only thing above water despite Dora makinig a direct lanfall about 40 miles farther south. The one big lesson learned from Dora was that inland flooding can be worse than coastal flooding. This is because the shallower the body of water (which in this case was the St. Johns River) the higher your storm surge. Now the beach had multiple issues with an 8 foot storm surge and waves of 20 feet on top of that. This caused about two dozen homes to be washed into the sea. Here is what was left of the Atlantic Beach pier.

This is quite a sight and if that was not enough the Jacksonville Beach pier was destroyed along with the famous ferris wheel. Wind gusts were clocked at high as 110 mph as the eye moved ashore in St. Augustine just after midnight. Folks reported birds feeding on swarms of insects as the skies went starry. It was quite an eerie sight. Notice the track went from St. Augustine through St. Johns County near the present day World Golf Village, through Clay County, Bradford, Union, and eventually Columbia County.

While rainfall amounts were in the six inch range east of the river, they increased to near 15" by time you were north of Lake City! So inland flooding from rain and storm surge was horrific. Luckily, there was ample warning that Dora was going to hit the First Coast and that held down the fatalities to only 4 which was quite a huge feat especially back then when the National Weather Service did not even have its own radar and doppler radar was not even invented yet. Now, 47 years later we are counting our blessings in the BLESSED COVE!

Here is what it looks like out on the beach this Saturday afternoon. All our big local teams have home games, including the Gators, Noles, and Bulldogs and I think rain will not be an issue. Enjoy the nice tailgating weather as well and if you are looking for a recipe I think the shrimp and grits will do and you can find it on firstcoastnews.com. I had the pleasure of scarfing that down this morning thanks to chef Abigail. Yummy! It was the first time I ever had it and I will be fixing it for dinner next week.

Now back to weather! Yes! it was a scene of utter destruction nearly 50 years ago but just a wonderful beach day today! Even though the tropics are off to their busiest start since 2005 when we had 28 named storms, we have been in the right place at the right time. Nature is literally hitting for the cycle with 4 tropical systems. Check it out!

Let's start with Nate on the far left heading to Mexico. Some models tried to bring moisture our way from this system. I did not buy it with this system way too far south and this is one reason I kept it mainly dry.

A second circle depicts Lee or the storm formally known as Lee which is the forgotten 11th billion-dollar disaster to hit our country this year. Do you realize portions of the Northeast have seen almost 2 feet of rain from this system including about a foot in Maryland that is seeing some of its worst flooding since Agnes in 1972. So once again I have been on the phone all week with family and friends up north. I do like keeping in touch but they may need a break from me or at least nature and soon! I do think Lee will finally weaken and lift out by late this weekend with improving weather for Washington, D.C. and New York City in time for the 9/11 ceremonies. But it is Lee that has helped wrap in dry air through much of the week and the atmosphere is dry even up through 20,000 and 30,000 feet. This is another reason I have a mainly dry forecast this weekend.

The third circle on the upper right is Katia and she will be near England by early next week. Bye bye and thanks for the great surf earlier this week. The fourth system circled near the windward islands is Maria and it should follow Katia's footsteps while bringing us more nice surf by Tuesday. Get ready surfers! The western Atlantic ridge combined with troughing along the East Coast that helped us set two record lows this week is not going anywhere anytime soon. So I can give us the all clear at least through the 20th but after that maybe some changes. Make sure to tune in and check out a much busier blog!

We have to keep our guard up! It is still thunderstorm season and today is the peak of hurricane season so we have a long way to go. In the short-term there is another wave of low pressure in the atmosphere that will try to move through the area by late tomorrow into Monday. Timing will be everything especially with the Jags home opener. Right now I think the big story will be the Jags staying undefeated, not another lightning delay. But there is a 20% chance of rain and I cannot rule out a thunderstorm for the game. We all know what happened last year. So this means a special blog update will be needed late tonight and once again Sunday morning. I think our highest chances of rain will still be after 4 p.m. when we are celebrating! This is what makes forecasting fun and that is the challenge. Have a great day and I will be back soon! Take care.

Waterspout spotted near Vilano Beach a reminder that it is also Waterspout Season!

2011-08-31T12:05:00.002-04:00

Wednesday, August 31, 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A
* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM...
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20
NM...
* UNTIL 1215 PM EDT
* AT 1145 AM EDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A SHOWER PRODUCING
A WATERSPOUT...3 NM NORTHEAST OF VILANO BEACH...MOVING WEST AT 5 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
WATERSPOUTS CAN EASILY OVERTURN BOATS AND CREATE LOCALLY HAZARDOUS
SEAS. YOUR BEST COURSE OF EVASIVE ACTION IF THREATENED BY A
WATERSPOUT IS TO MOVE AT A 90 DEGREE ANGLE FROM ITS APPARENT
MOVEMENT. SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COAST GUARD OR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE.

Irene downgraded and goes hybrid! No Way Jose forms in the Atlantic!

2011-08-28T09:59:00.005-04:00

Sunday, August 28, 2011

Well here is a once in a lifetime event you see above. New York City officially had the center of a hurricane make a direct landfall for the first time since 1893 close to 8:30 a.m. But wait! We got a later statement from the National Hurricane Center that the center passed over at 9:00 a.m. with 65 mph winds which made it a tropical storm. I had the center over the Big Apple at 8:32 a.m. when it was still classified as a hurricane. So you decide. The picture above is my evidence. Hmmmmm... Either way, this hurricane actually spared New York City the worst and everybody is breathing a sigh of relief. Now there will still be flooding and power outage issues but the feared storm surge several feet high never materialized. A surge of only 3.5 feet above normal was reported and power remained on near Battery Park! The wind gusts were also not what you would normally see in a hurricane and the radar above shows why. There is no eye wall and the dry air and wind shear that started working into this hurricane overnight really took its toll.

Wind gusts of 30 mph? Wow and the eye of the hurricane is passing overhead! This is why I think Irene was more of a hybrid hurricane as it moved over the Big Apple. Notice the highest wind gusts were far from the center which is more typical of an extratropical system. Your peak wind was over the Atlantic and up into New England. My friends in New England will have to hunker down today but it will not be anything they have not seen before. It will be like a strong nor'easter with a 4 to 7 hour period of 40 to 60 mph wind with only isolated higher gusts along with numerous power outages and downed trees. By New England standards it will not be a huge deal. What will Irene's legacy be? I think it will be historic record crests on the area rivers that will in some cases be higher than Hurricane Floyd in 1999. The rainfall map below tells the story!

Notice the purple and deep blues on the map...those are 10-20 inch rainfall amounts or what some areas would normally see in a 4 to 6 month time frame. You combine this with a wet late summer and the news is not good. So I think Irene's real damage will come in the form of river flooding later this week and next weekend which means the wind may have been downgraded but the problems are just beginning. North Carolina really saw the brunt of this storm along with portions of Virginia where clean-up will take much longer due to its very slow movement over land yesterday. This helped folks farther north but was no help for residents from the Outer Banks to Jacksonville and New Bern where they will remember this storm as a monster.

The good news is my relatives in Maryland are safe and sound and the boardwalk in Ocean City is still standing but not before sustained winds of 60 mph were reported last night with a few gusts to hurricane force. The thing that saved us in this enormous hurricane was there really were never any reports of sustained hurricane force winds. Even when the center of Irene made a second landfall just north of Atlantic City overnight sustained winds only reached 40 mph with gusts to 60 mph. Let's take a look at the water vapor or atmospheric moisture located in the mid-levels for a clue as to what happened.

It does look like while this system was large there was enough dry air that was entrained into it by time it move north of the Outer Banks by late yesterday so its transition to a hybrid really began at that time and explains why most folks are breathing a sigh of relief in the Northeast. One other thing to remember is Irene lost its inner core on Friday afternoon so you can even say that it could have been a lot worse in North Carolina. It grew too big too quickly over the islands and it could not maintain itself. If it was a smaller storm it may have been a different story.

Now Irene is so huge it is sending us another surge of dry air today bringing us our second consecutive day of record-breaking heat here in Jacksonville. It hit 99 yesterday breaking the record and today we will at least tie the record of 97 set back in 1959. What is interesting about the picture above is look how quiet it is to the west of Irene. Nature like to keep a balance and since we had pressures near 28.11 inches on the East Coast there is plenty of dry air and higher pressure to the West to make up for it. North America has turned into a ghost town on the weather map! But it is still busy in other parts of the tropics....uh oh!!

Do not be spooked! My slogan with this storm is NO WAY JOSE!! You can thank Irene's wind shear for keeping this system a weak tropical storm. There is a tropical storm warning for Bermuda but I am still trying to figure out if there is more sunshine or clouds with this system. Either way it should be history in a couple days and not make history like Irene. It has been quite a week and now it is time to count all of our blessings that is for sure. We had one of the five largest hurricanes of all-time move northward and it could have been a lot worse. Here in Jacksonville we just had a few minutes of rain and some refreshing breezes. No rain is expected this evening but when could our next threat in the tropics be and we are not talking Jose. I will have that answer and a cool weather question for you to keep you cool with another hot day on the way. See you soon. Have a wonderful day.

Irene makes landfall with 110 mph gusts and lashes us with record heat!

2011-08-27T15:30:00.002-04:00

Saturday, August 27, 2011

Wow! I did not even need the coffee this morning! Irene made landfall at Cape Lookout just before 7:30 a.m. with 85 mph winds and gusts to 110 mph. As it was doing so it took out a pier at Atlantic Beach, North Carolina and our sister city Jacksonville, North Carolina had wind gusts to 94 mph! We can all count our blessings we live in the Jacksonville, Florida area. We woke up with a brief shower in the Golden Isles but that was it! Here are some more Irene facts and yes the streak is over!

The last time a hurricane hit the US was way back on September 13, 2008. Now one thing to not focus on with this storm is the Saffir-Simpson Scale. A lot of folks are under the false impression if the storm is only a category it is not harmful. This cannot be further from the truth. Tropical storms have been known to bring record flooding and this hurricane is not just any typical category one.

Size does matter with hurricanes and this one has cloud bands from Cuba to Canada or about 1,600 miles! Now what this means is a longer duration of wind and rain so by time all is said and done I do expect historic flooding and widespread wind damage. We have already seen 55 mph wind gusts as far inland as Richmond, Virginia. An unfathomable 17" of rain has fallen in New Bern, North Carolina and they are not even close to being done yet!

Here at home it is about epic surf and heat! We will likely break the all-time record of 98 degrees set back in 1954. Today is also all about the surfers for autism in St. Augustine. Even though that is a hot west wind it will make for some nice smooth surf. You see the nice 7-10 foot waves at Amelia Island yesterday. I need to learn to surf after seeing this picture sent in by John Adams. Thank you! Keep in mind surf will fall to 1-2 feet by late today so hurry up and catch the wave. Rip currents could still be a bit tricky but they are out of the dangerous range. Just have fun and be careful! Temperatures at 2 p.m. had already hit 97 in St. Augustine and 100 in Orange Park with a humidity of 34%. This is all due to Irene wrapping in dry air and a west-southwest wind being forced to blow into the center of Irene all the while cancelling the usual cooling effects of the sea breezes and storms we normally see this time of year!

Now for our friends and family up north. I think they would rather be having the heat right about now. There are already over a half-million power outages and there have been four fatalities. The track this morning shifted about 30 miles farther west so notice it looks like the eye could in fact be very close to Ocean City, Maryland by midnight. I think the Baltimore/Washington area will still escape the worse but flooding rain of 4 to 8 inches is likely along with 30-50 mph winds with isolated higher gusts. It will be a much different story for Rehoboth Beach Delaware that is in the red zone with 60-80 mph winds with gusts to 95 mph. A storm surge near 6-8 feet is likely with 15 foot waves crashing on top of that. Very scary.

Farther north the latest models show that westward shift and have Atlantic City possibly being grazed by the eye wall by late tonight and then heading right over New York City first thing on Sunday. Notice the large wind fields due to this storm not having a tight inner core and an unusually low pressure for a category one hurricane.

New York could see Isabel's eye and if it holds together as a hurricane it would be the first direct strike since 1938. I think a big concern has to be a storm surge of 6-7 feet with a tidal surge of 5 more feet and then pounding waves on top of that. You combine this with 10 inches plus of rain and you are looking at a disaster in the making. I just hope everybody heeded the warning. New England will see Isabel as a tropical storm but as we now know deadly flooding can happen with tropical storms and record crests will be likely on many rivers. We are looking at a long clean-up. I will keep you updated and I wish I had better news. Here at home we will not get back to any normal late summer weather for quite some time. Make sure to tune in and find out why. Take care and be safe my friends!

Irene heads north and a sleepless night for many

2011-08-26T23:48:00.003-04:00

Friday and wee hours of Saturday, August 26, 2011

Yes, I am sleepless in Jacksonville. I do need to get some rest before Good Morning Jacksonville but it is tough when you are watching over friends and family farther north. Now if there is some good news it is that Irene as of 11 p.m. has 100 mph winds and she will continue to slowly weaken! You see the hurricane hunters reported an eye wall collapse. Here is a cool link showing the microwave satellite of Irene.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/MWimageryBy12hr_07.gif

It is like an MRI for storms. You can see a distinct eye when it was a major hurricane with 120 mph winds and then it fades during the day today as the storm went under shear and some cooler waters to the north. The bad news is that this hurricane is abnormally large and really the size of Europe. So even though it will hit Ocracoke Island with wind speeds of a strong category 1 storm do not let the number fool you because in this case size means power and lots of it. It is pushing a lot of waves and water around and remember water has 1,000 times more power than air. So do not get caught up in wind speeds. I think flooding will be the big battle with this storm. So even if winds are not as high super-saturated grounds mean a ton of trees down. We also cannot forget there will also be a tornado threat.

But the good news is for points farther north our sustained hurricane force winds chances continue to diminish and the track has also shifted a bit east. Take a look at those red and purple colors showing the best chance of wind speeds at 74 mph or greater. It looks like by time this hurricane does make landfall most of your hurricane force winds will be gusts of 74 mph or higher which will keep devastating damage less widespread. It helps not having to worry about an eye wall! Now you have to keep in mind tornadoes will enhance damage as well and they will certainly be a threat along with deadly flooding. So while the news is more positive this storm will still be one for the books. Already we have had 70 mph wind gusts in Wrightsville Beach, NC a good 12 hours ahead of landfall. Amazing!

So how about my friends in Delmarva and up the Jersey Coast. Here is the latest track I have and I will update this by noon Saturday.

I also put in a few models you cannot find anywhere else that I agree with and you can see EAST is the trend. The trough to the west is not as strong and that will allow this storm to be guided more by the clockwise flow of the high pressure to the East. I do not hear anybody talking about the Albany, New York track anymore that is for sure. I will be back soon. I better get a little shut eye and you do the same!...

Irene brings brief wind gusts to 45 mph but the billion-dollar storm is moving away from the First Coast!

2011-08-26T11:53:00.012-04:00

Friday, August 26, 2011

What a morning! I do not call this time of year my Super Bowl for nothing! I have been on the phone with friends from Maryland to New England while looking at the latest weather models, radar images of Irene and snapping shots of those impressive rain bands that drenched many kids going to school this morning. So let's get to it! Irene has passed 250 miles east of the First Coast and is moving away! What a breath-taking view from the International Space Station. The astronauts said it looked downright scary as they passed over it! We did have an official wind gust at St. Augustine of 38 mph with a quick 1.07 inches of rain. Meteorologist Tim Deegan reported a 45 mph wind gust in Jacksonville Beach. But as quickly as the rain came this morning it was pretty much all said and done and as expected most areas west of the river will not see a drop of rain.

I think Irene's clouds will even start clearing out of the area by late today and tonight. I love the tropical breezes and have the screen door open but we are only talking occasional breezes near 20 mph. If you are at the beach you could still see a few gusts of 30 mph but even the wind will start to slacken by late today. You have survived Irene and we are all counting our blessings!

But this is no time to celebrate, especially with our friends to the north in harm's way. I have a ton of family and friends up that way and have been telling my fam and friends in Annapolis, Maryland to make sure to have the flashlights and candles ready because power outages are looking more likely. So how will this storm end up behaving...well I think it will take a track similar to GLORIA like you see above. The year was 1985 and I believe the song Gloria was very popular. Here in 2011 we do not have an Irene song but many have been singing Come on Eileen. I love both of those songs as I am an 80s music junkie! Now good music but bad news! My areas of most concern stretch from Delmarva to Jersey, Long Island and New England. Gloria caused almost 2 billion dollars in damage by today's standards. Irene wil likely have a big impact on millions and will be another billion dollar storm.

With Gloria, wind gusts in Ocean City, Maryland reached 90 mph along with a few spots on the Jersey shore. Like 1985 I expect the eye to pass 50 miles east of Ocean City, Maryland or Marty's Playland on the boardwalk right near Thrashers where I have a ton of wonderful memories. Unfortunately the boardwalk was torn up back then and I am not sure how it will escape Irene's ire this time around.

Long Island had the worst of it with a direct hit from Gloria and it was still a category 2 hurricane with wind gusts of 115 mph reported on Long Island. Damage and flooding were widespread. The storm surge average was 4-7 feet along the coast. By time Gloria made it to New England it quickly weakened to a strong tropical storm but even Rhode Island had wind gusts of 92 mph! The pristine beaches and coastline of Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and New Hampshire were spared a lot of damage because of the inland track it took. I think history will repeat itself with Irene and I have some New England friends on standby to update us here on the blog and newscasts this weekend. Yes, Mark in Rhode Island is ready!

So here are my latest impacts: Here locally high tides will run about a foot above average but I am not expecting much in the way of any coastal flooding. Dangerous rip currents will continue at least one more day and surf will build from 6 to 8 feet with occasional 10 foot sets. Enjoy, but be very careful surfers! Over the weekend the best surf day will be Saturday but the earlier you go the better as the surf will quickly fall from 4 feet in the morning to only 1 to 2 feet by late day with a strong west wind. Rip currents will still be moderate so only experienced swimmers should be in the water. Boaters will have improving conditions Saturday afternoon with seas down near 6 feet but still 10 feet well offshore. Sunday looks like the better boating day.

Now farther north: I expect a landfall from Irene in the Outer Banks near Cape Fear, a second landfall near Southhampton on Long Island (where I also love taking boat rides), and a third landfall near Groton, Connecticut.

Jacksonville, FL...20-30 mph winds with gusts to 45 beaches, rain less than one inch.

Outer Banks....80-100 mph winds with gusts to 115 mph, rain of 10-15 inches of rain.

Virginia Beach to Ocean City...50-70 mph winds with gusts to 90 mph, 8-12 inches of rain.

Jersey Shore...60-80 mph winds with gusts to 100 mph, 10-15 inches of rain.

DC, Annapolis, Baltimore...30-40 mph winds, gusts to 60 mph, 4-8 inches of rain.

Philly....35-45 mph winds, gusts to 65 mph, 6-10 inches of rain.

New York City 45-55 mph winds, gusts to 75 mph, 8-12 inches of rain.

Long Island....southern Connecticut and Rhode Island..55-75 mph winds, gusts to 95 mph, 10-15+ inches of rain.

Massachusetts, Central and Northern New England...40-65 mph winds, gusts to 75 mph, 10-15+ inches of rain

I will be back this evening with the timing and latest track of Irene...God bless America and may a more progressive trough coming in from the Midwest kick Irene even farther out to the East! Come on Irene!

Irene greets First Coast with wild skies, balmy breezes and high surf

2011-08-25T14:13:00.009-04:00

Irene is officially in control of our weather but do not worry she is still not moving our way and the eye of Irene should pass 240 miles east of Jacksonville. You see the blue skies mixed with bands of dark clouds and brief showers. It is sunny one minute and raining the next and sometimes there is sunshine and rain at the same time. My Mom and Mandarin says this is weird and I agree with her. This is typical of tropical systems known for their wild weather that seems to change with those breezes that have blown in from the northeast.

Between the showers we have also had plenty of reports of rainbows. I was able to capture one but even the rainbows are not lasting very long. If you do not like the weather just wait a couple minutes. The clouds are whizzing by at 30 to 35 mph from the northeast. This is the result of Irene's extremely low pressure. The air is literally being sucked into the eye of the storm. At the same time the outer cirrus clouds or feathery clouds you see in our sky today is the result of Irene exhaling or what meteorologists call outflow. It is much like a human that breathes. What goes in must come out. So remember the fast-moving clouds are Irene breathing in and the cirrus clouds are Irene breathing out.

Now the weather blog question of the day is how do we know it really is going to miss us, after all look how close to home the eye is...you can clearly see it near Elbow Cay and it is only about 410 miles from Micker's Beach. Well you can thank the science of meteorology for advancing quite a bit and the hurricane hunter flying this storm just to make sure several times a day. As I told my first-grader who was also concerned... they are flying in and out of it, dropping parachutes with instruments to see how Irene is behaving and updating billions of mathematical formulas around the clock to keep everybody as safe as possible here in Florida. Yes, Lauren felt a little better and I have been able to settle down a few anxious neighbors. This radar does look a bit scary with Irene staring us down and almost on top of us.

Do you realize that if this was 1999 we would be evacuating a few coastal areas of central and southern Florida because the error 24-48 hours out was twice as much. So we could not see as clearly or really know if this hurricane was indeed going to miss us. Now here in 2011 we are 99.9% certain Irene is heading away and at the same time able to save millions of dollars and keep people safe with no evacuations needed. Our 48 hour error has decreased from 150 to 200 miles in 1999 down to 80 miles here in 2011. Oh and by the way that is why we had mandatory evacuations from Floyd back in 1999. We have a long way to go but at least we are heading in the right direction.

Here is a recent look at what is happening in Nassau, the Bahamas where wind gusts have been near 80 mph. Now here at home we can expect wind gusts possibly as high as 45 mph at the beach and on the bridges with wind speeds mainly between 20-30 mph. The highest wind speed will be during the day Friday and by tomorrow night it will already start to ease a bit. Speaking of the wind the latest mathematical formula I just completed gives us a 1% chance of seeing wind speeds over 60 mph and just an 11.9% chance of sustained wind speeds of 39 mph or greater. Hopefully this can help us all breathe easier. Our thoughts and prayers go out to our friends in the Bahamas.

Due to Irene's ire the surf has kicked up in a hurry with 4 to 7 foot sets developing and by this time tomorrow we will see 7 to 10 foot sets. The good news is beach erosion should remain on the lighter side with a shift in the wind to the north and northwest Friday. Also there is only a 10-20% chance of a storm surge of 2 feet or greater for Northeast Florida which should also help our precious beaches stay better in tact. I want to thank the FEMA director Craig Fugate who I got to know quite well when I did weather in Gainesville for this link to help us see while we are okay at home things are not so fine farther north with a much bigger storm surge on the way for the Outer Banks. Check it out. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/psurgegraphics_at4.shtml?gm

This brings us to the latest track. While it may have wobbled 20-30 miles closer to Jacksonville overnight in the short-term, which will cause no change to our forecast, it will mean much bigger changes farther north which includes the Outer Banks and Northeast. Focus on the two lines snug together in the middle of this model forecast. That is the track I agree with that takes it about 60 miles east of New York City on Saturday night and Sunday morning. Since there still could be a shift we cannot totally rule out a direct hit which would be the first one since 1893. Now those are the folks that need to be worried. A front to the north that was supposed to sweep it toward Martha's Vineyard is expected to stall which would draw the storm more north than northeast. Here is the breakdown on wind and rain impacts.

Jacksonville, FL...20-30 mph winds with gusts to 45 beaches, rain less than one inch.

Outer Banks....80-100 mph winds with gusts to 115 mph, rain of 10-15 inches of rain.

Virginia Beach to Ocean City...60 to 80 mph winds with gusts to 90 mph, 9-12 inches of rain.

Jersey Shore...65-90 mph winds with gusts to 100 mph, 12-18 inches of rain.

DC, Baltimore...35-45 mph winds, gusts to 60 mph, 4-8 inches of rain.

Philly....40-50 mph winds, gusts to 70 mph, 6-10 inches of rain.

New York City..50-60 mph winds, gusts to 80 mph, 10-15 inches of rain.

Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts...55-70 mph winds, gusts to 95 mph, 15-20 inches of rain

Central and Northern New England...40-65 mph winds, gusts to 75 mph, 10-15 inches of rain

These numbers are the worst case scenario and hopefully we can get this track going farther east once again but for now with the front expected to stall it is time to prepare for our Northeast friends. I will keep you updated. God bless.

Irene's first waves washing up on the First Coast

2011-08-24T17:29:00.003-04:00

August 24, 2011

The big news today is that Irene has gained strength as expected with wind speeds of 120 mph as it moves northwest at 12 mph. The reports out of the Bahamas is not good with folks saying they have not seen a hurricane like this in decades. Some are comparing it to Andrew on this the anniversary of it making landfall as a category five in South Florida. Although Andrew as a much stronger storm when it went through the Bahamas with wind speeds closer to 140 mph. The eye is 20 nautical miles across. This is an incredible sight to behold. No matter how many hurricanes I have seen I always get goosebumps. You can see the power of nature firsthand.

Here is the good news! This powerful storm is still expected to miss us by at least 250 miles. The bad news is this hurricane is a bit larger than normal. So while we do not have to cancel plans this weekend I still would not go swimming or even boating until at least Sunday. Tropical storm force winds of 40 mph with gusts to 50 mph will be likely only 150 miles east of Jacksonville. Rip currents will be deadly and it is the third leading weather killer in the US over the last 10 years. Enough said.

Here are the main impacts:

1) Offshore boating is off limits

2) Deadly rip currents and beach erosion--while it helps having a north-northwest wind during the peak of our wind gusts, unfortunately this is the time of year for flood tides or high astronomical tides. We are near a new moon phase and the autumn equinox less than 4 weeks away it exerts more of a pull on our high and low tides. A coastal flood advisory may be needed with tides running about 1 to 2 feet above normal. The surf of 5 to 8 feet with isolated 10 foot sets will also pound the sand. A high surf advisory will also be needed.

3) Gusty winds will be likely near the beaches which may give us a high wind warning for the eastern portions of the area. While most of us will see wind speeds in the 15 to 25 mph range with gusts to 30 mph. The beaches could see 25-30 mph wind speeds with gusts of 40 mph. Yes, hold onto those kites and even if you do the wind may finish them off.

4) Rainfall still look low impact. I only see a quarter to half inch possible at the beaches and maybe a quarter inch for areas from 1-95 to the river. West of the river I cannot promise you any rain.

You can see the rainfall map and yes it is a little overdone over us but farther north a different story. Speaking of which I do think North Carolina misses a direct landfall by 10.5 miles by my latest calculations, but will see windy conditions. Charlotte will be missed by 330 miles so wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph are possible. Farther north the DELMARVA will have 40 to 50 mph gusts, flooding rain of 4-8 inches, isolated tornadoes, downed trees, and power outages...so if you have plans to go North I would cancel them. The major cities should be spared but all bets are off by time you get to Providence, Rhode Island northward where they could see Irene make a beeline north and it would be a stronger hurricane than Bob in 1991 unfortunately. This is one scenario starting to take shape. I will be back this evening to explain why this nightmare could be a reality. Take care and be safe.

Earthquake Rattles East Coast and Irene battles Hispanoila

2011-08-23T18:22:00.001-04:00

Checking in with you with more good news! Yes, we are officially out of the cone of concern and I am going as far as telling you not to cancel plans this weekend. But I still advise you NOT to swim in those deadly rip currents that will move in Thursday and not let up until Sunday. Irene in fact was battling some of those 10,000 foot peaks of Hispaniola and has now weakened to a category one hurricane. But I still think it will strengthen to a category 2, maybe a 3 for a short time before brushing the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Here is the spaghetti model that is quite appetizing!

Notice the average track supports my Outer Banks to Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket track we discussed this morning and I was leaning toward yesterday. This is good to see, but we will still watch it carefully. I will be back with some earthquake stories to share. First off to swim practice!

http://nationalzoo.si.edu/Publications/PressMaterials/PressReleases/NZP/2011/earthquake.cfm

Here is a great link at how the animals reacted to the biggest earthquake to hit the Washington, D.C. area since 1897. The Washington Monument may closed for some time due to cracks that were found and the National Cathedral actually sustained some damage.

Irene not so mean here at home but a different story from Carolinas Northward

2011-08-23T09:20:00.009-04:00

Tuesday, August 23, 2011

Good Morning! I am happy to say with 99.9% certainty since you never say never with nature that Irene will miss Florida. The wind cone which I like showing more than the cone of concern since it gives you a better handle on where the damage impact will really be is still pointing to the Carolinas and points north. In fact it does look like it is curling toward Wilmington and the Outer Banks now which was what I was expecting. Notice here at home which includes our beaches we only have a 33% chance of sustained wind speeds of tropical storm force of 39 mph or greater. Even though Irene is expected to strengthen to a category 3 or 4 as it moves about 200-250 miles east of Jacksonville I do think we will escape the worst effects. Remember the most dangerous side of any hurricane is its north and east quadrant. So here is what I am thinking based on the latest data and if anything the wind forecast for our area has come down by about 5 to 10 mph over the last 24 hours.

MAIN THREATS FOR JACKSONVILLE AND THE BEACHES:

1) High offshore seas will cause dangerous conditions for mariners, which could reach over 15-20 feet. Boating will not be advised from Thursday through the first part of the weekend.

2) Dangerous rip currents ( hard to believe this is the 2nd leading weather killer over the past 10 years but it is---you can go to the beach to check out the high waves but DO NOT SWIM)

3) High surf and beach erosion--Wave forecasts of 6-8 feet still holds with the highest surf on Friday. There could be a few 10 foot sets. This will pound the sand causing some beach erosion. The good news is the wind direction will not be northeast but north-northwest when the highest wind gusts hit which will keep us from seeing a major event.

4) Wind gusts. I have wind speeds at the beach averaging 25-35 mph with maybe a few higher gusts near 45 mph. But you cross the Intracoastal and the wind should be in the 20-30 mph range. Farther inland across the river expect the wind to be in the 15-25 mph range. I am still not expecting any bridge closures. By time you cross the river the wind will be even lighter.

5) We will also have to watch for higher tides than normal but right now it looks minor especially with more of a land breeze winning out due to the hurricane staying to our east.

6) Rainfall---Very disappointing..maybe some brief heavy squalls for the beaches....but do not count on it...and areas near highway 301 may not see a drop of rain from Irene! Rain amounts well under an inch.

*This is a good average of what is likely to happen, but we will continue to fine-tune it as we get closer. But I do feel very comfortable with the big six above!

Next big question is how strong will Irene be. Are we looking at a category 3, 4, or 5? Looking at the Atlantic water conditions compared to normal over the forecast path the water temperatures are actually normal to slightly below normal temperature-wise but still above the 80 degree threshold which allows hurricanes to develop and thrive. Farther north off New England waters are warmer than normal so if Irene could hold together longer and stronger. When all is said and done the worst effects from this tropical system will likely be felt farther north with areas from North Carolina to Maine and Nova Scotia really having to keep a close eye on this path. I am leaning toward a category 3 hurricane as it moves east of Florida and moves toward North Carolina and a tropical storm by time it moves to the Northeast.

Where is it going? Well let's look at climatology and my favorite model of choice out of the 80 weather models I look at. This morning my golden child of models has Irene making landfall between Jacksonville, North Carolina and the Outer Banks on Saturday and then from there it gets more complicated. I would not be surprised to see Irene make a run over those warmer waters toward Martha's Vineyard by Sunday night and Nova Scotia and Newfoundland on Monday. Wind gusts should still be near hurricane force with plenty of flooding rain possible. The farther north these systems go they drop heavier rain on their west side with higher gusts to the east. So for now Irene not so mean here at home but I am still concerned about North Carolina and points northward. Even the beaches from Delmarva and Jersey northward will likely see more of an impact from this storm than our Florida beaches. Stay tuned. Have a great day. I am off to OSPREY TV! We will certainly be talking hurricanes this morning.

Irene still expected to miss Florida, but the Carolinas need to stay prepared

2011-08-22T21:18:00.003-04:00

Special Irene Update Monday Night, August 22, 2011

I have been showing you the cone of concern or the area where Irene could possibly track but it can be misleading especially if you are looking at the exact track in that cone. Last night the hurricane center had the storm's center tracking right over Jacksonville which I knew was not even close. I like looking at the probability of tropical storm force winds to get a better handle on where these finicky tropical systems are heading. Look at the red and purple shading which show the best chances of sustained wind speeds of 39 mph or higher. Notice Florida is not in the red zone when it comes to the more widespread damaging wind and it is still pointing toward the Carolinas. So while our weather team has not given the official all clear here at home, I do think we can by tomorrow for sure. Make sure to tune in for the latest.

I do think this storm misses Jacksonville by 250 miles. This is important because it means I do think our sustained wind speeds stay between 20-30 mph with isolated gusts at the beaches to 45 mph. As a result I am not expecting bridges to be closed like we saw with Tropical Storm Fay. You need sustained winds of 35 to 40 mph and I do not see that happening.

More good news! Beach erosion will not be as bad with more of an eastward track. There will be some but not nearly as severe. I am leaning more toward a north wind Thursday night into Friday morning rather than a strong northeast wind which will help matters. Surfers should be excited but be careful of those rip currents. Latest surf estimates are still in the 5 to 8 foot range with maybe a few 10 foot sets!

But there is a drawback...no help for our drought. Latest rain estimates from Irene should remain under one inch with some areas west of the river not seeing much more than a few drops.

Now back to our friends farther North. How will our friends in the Carolinas and farther north fare. Well this morning this storm was more on a Floyd type path but with the latest information I think it may be more Bonnie-esque which is a storm I covered in 1998 while doing weather in Myrtle Beach.

Take a look at its track. I do not expect another Bob for New England like we saw in 1991, but maybe history will repeat itself when we had a hurricane make landfall near Wilmington, North Carolina before it heads out to sea. My gut feeling early this evening was this storm could possibly just skirt the Outer Banks but now I am not so sure. I am concerned that Irene is getting so strong so fast that it will have a tougher time making that fortunate turn to the northeast, instead of just making a glancing blow to the Outer Banks. These stronger hurricanes can sometimes create their own atmosphere in some cases and that is why you can never let your guard down. Think of how easy it is to turn a jet ski but Irene is more like a cruise ship so to speak. Those boats take a little more time to turn and if Bonnie starts speeding up, watch out!

Tonight, Irene is cruising along and now has 100 mph wind speeds and is about 15-20 mph stronger than forecasted so this can certainly have an impact on the track. There are two hurricane hunter planes flying around the storm tonight and they will have a whole new set of numbers to feed into the weather models. So by tomorrow morning I do think we will have a much better handle on the track. While I still think we are okay in Florida. I still have to be concerned about South Carolina as well as North Carolina. I do think New England should be spared the worst with a stronger trough in place. Take a look. The big dip in the jet stream is easy to see on this upper-wind chart.

The trough is much stronger than forecasted and I do not see it filling in over the next several days. Another reinforcing disturbance is already being spotted in Minnesota and another one behind that in the Pacific Northwest. So even though we have a monster hurricane it would certainly feel its effects and the big ship should be able to eventually be towed out to sea, hopefully before it creates too much havoc and damage. Another thing to note is the big circle over Texas. That is the high pressure that has brought them relentless heat and even a few heat waves this summer here at home. It is so strong that it is helping the strong trough develop in the East. So thank your friends in Texas. Their historic drought and heat wave is actually our best friends right now. I will keep you posted on Irene and hopefully we can give the official all clear for Florida in the near future! Good night!

Irene the menacing storm machine has Carolina on her mind and will impact millions

2011-08-22T11:03:00.011-04:00

Monday, August 22, 2011

There she is and the news is not good for millions along the East Coast. As expected Irene will end the hurricane drought. Yesterday afternoon I made the call that this system would stay east of Florida and likely head up to the Carolinas and as of 14 zulu (world weather time based on Greenwich Mean Time) or 10 a.m. local time this morning I am still sticking to my forecast. If you have friends in the Northeast they will also see a big impact from Irene. I have already called relatives in Maryland and Delmarva and told them to batten down the hatches.

You see the convection really blowing up on the north side of this system which is a good sign for Florida, bad news for the Carolinas. These tropical cyclones usually track in the direction where most of the thunderstorm activity blows up. The power of nature and Irene was on display last night. It was amazing how Irene actually strengthened into the season's first hurricane even though its eye went over Puerto Rico. Conditions are so favorable that there was no denying her hurricane status. Notice the fan shape on the satellite picture. That is a good indication of no wind shear and light winds aloft created by an upper high pressure system.

Irene is now in charge and the atmosphere will now be taking its cues from her. In fact since Irene is becoming so big and strong the likelihood of a hard right out to sea would be even less likely. I call it the bulldozer effect. Irene is like a big machine and once it gets on a roll there is no turning it around.

Latest wind speeds are up to 80 mph and I would not be surprised if it became a major hurricane with wind speeds topping 110 mph as it moves over the bath water and Gulf Stream on its track to the north over the next few days. The thinking all along was if this developed into a stronger hurricane which we said was on the table yesterday that it would move much farther north and east. That is exactly what is happening. Here is the path I showed last night at 6 p.m. and I think it still works although it may be about 100 miles too far west. Even though it is expected to stay east we will start feeling local impacts by Thursday night into Friday with increasing wind and even rain. I am still worried about a lot of wave action with beach erosion. Surfers will have a choppy time of it with 5 to 8 foot waves on Friday at Jacksonville Beach. It will be tough to stand up on those surf boards with wind gusts topping 40 mph with isolated higher gusts. Let's take a closer look at what will happen here at home.

We will feel the most impact on Friday with things improving by early Saturday morning. You see the tightly packed isobars telling us we will have to contend with wind. I still have most of our area in the 30-40 mph wind zone with gusts near 50 possible. Athough areas west of the river will likely be in the 20-30 mph range. Look for some high wind advisories to be issued. It will not take much to topple a few trees that have been ravaged by the drought. Most of the wind should be in a 16-20 hour window starting late Thursday night and lasting through late Friday night. Speaking of the wind it will cause some beach erosion much like a nor-easter because the storm track will turn our wind to the east-northeast. This is not good news for some of our re-nourished beaches and South Ponte Vedra Beach that is already in trouble.

Surf will start increasing Wednesday with 2-4 foot surf. Expect 4-7 feet on Thursday and before it gets real windy that might be the best day, even though Friday the breakers will be wind-whipped and build from 5 to 8 feet. Saturday the surf will quickly fall from 3 feet in the morning to 1 foot in the afternoon due to a strong land breeze being sucked into the center of Irene.

Boaters beware and secure the dingys at the dock! I see waves building to near 15 feet offshore by Friday with even some 6-10 foot seas on Thursday. Get all the good fishing done by Wednesday. Irene is not playing around and I am expecting some 30 foot waves and then some well east of Florida as it moves east of Jacksonville by 175 miles on Friday evening.

Now what we have all been waiting for. How about the rain? Well the news is not so good. Since we are on the weak side or the side of the hurricane with sinking air our rain totals look like they will be held down. Earlier in the weekend we were sitting in the 7 to 10 inch range which I never bought into...now I have downgraded us to the 1 to 3 inch range with much less amounts the closer you get to Interstate 75. But I think I would rather miss out on the rain because if we were still in the 7 inch plus range this would have meant a ton of wind damage, flooding issues, and power outages. No thank you.

So where is the hurricane heading? I think it is taking a Floyd track that we saw in 1999. Floyd caused over 6 billion dollars in damage with over 50 fatalities. Notice how it impacted not only the Carolinas but my beloved boardwalk in Ocean City, Maryland and all my good friends in New York and New England. Time to make more calls.

Now keep in mind we are still in the cone of concern but I really think this is the big one for the Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast. Until we can officially give the all clear for Florida make sure to stay tuned for the latest, especially with how strong Irene will become. We also cannot rule out sporadic power outages. As we found out with Tropical Storm Fay in 2008 it does not take much for a tropical system to cause a lot of trouble. Also, swimming at the beaches will not be advised from Thursday through Saturday due to dangerous rip currents.

Last but not least. I have to end this on a positive note. I am so proud of my first grader, seventh grader and high schooler....OMGosh...high school?...this was very tough to type for me....They all made it to school safely. You see Lauren or the baby of the family. Well I guess not a baby anymore. Where does time go? It was very nice at the bus stop this morning but this afternoon I do expect a few storms to pop so make sure if you have any little ones you pick them up at the bus stop or they have a dry ride home. You stay safe and I will keep you updated throughout the week. Take care, peace!

We are in the cone of concern as Irene continues to gain strength in Caribbean

2011-08-21T11:49:00.000-04:00

Sunday, August 21, 2011

Here on the blog yesterday we talked about staying prepared as Irene was forming. I was also concerned about the hurricane drought across the southeast United States coming to a screeching halt. This morning it looks like the National Hurricane Center agrees. It has the latest track still moving toward southeast Florida and making landfall as a category one hurricane with sustained winds of 85 and gusts near 100 mph. Right now South Florida seems to be the area with the highest risk of a landfalling hurricane. But keep in mind we still have to see what happens after this system clears the islands.

The models are having a hard time in forecasting its intensity as usual. Some models have this thing with 40 mph winds by Thursday while others have a category three with 120 mph winds. I am still on board with the hurricane intensity as Irene makes a move on Florida but hope I am wrong. So this is one of many reasons we all have to stay tuned and most of all stay calm and prepared.

While there is a consensus on this system tracking near Miami by Thursday night this could still change. A few models still have it moving into the Gulf of Mexico and even a few more having it skirting Florida and heading up to the Carolinas. This is why I think we should keep the cone of concern extending from New Orleans all the way up the East Coast. These storms can turn in a hurry a la Charley in 2004. Right now I am still leaning to an East Coast hurricane due to Irene repositioning itself overnight about 60 miles farther north.

Speaking of Irene notice the latest wind speeds being reported in the Caribbean. There have already been a few gusts of 30 mph in Puerto Rico. By late tonight hopefully San Juan has the hatches battened down with gusts near 80 mph likely. A hurricane warning is in effect. Notice the wind direction is also shifting more out of the northeast due to the atmosphere taking its cues from Irene. While the hurricane hunters kept the intensity of this storm at 45 mph after their morning flight I think this afternoon could be a much different story. The US Virgin Islands are now under a hurricane watch which includes St. Thomas. They have a brisk northeast breeze near 20 mph and tonight I see wind speeds of 50 mph with gusts near hurricane force. Here is what it looks like at Frenchman's Reef just after 11 a.m. our time.

You can see they have lost the nice clear sunny weather they have had over the last couple of days. Bands of rain and wind are now moving in and they will have to be on the outlook for possible severe thunderstorms tonight. So the blog question of the day is how much wind will we see from Irene? Well as we know things can change but as they stands right now most of the models do agree on it having a local impact in our area. Our entire viewing area including Georgia is now in the cone of concern as of the late Sunday morning National Hurricane Center update. I think it is a good call.

Here is a map I mustered up this morning showing our South Florida hurricane weakening over land by Friday morning. You see the tightly packed lines of equal pressure or what we call isobars. The more of these you see the more wind due to a tight pressure gradient. The dark shaded greens are over us here at home represent sustained wind speeds that will be near 30 mph based on the track I favor most. The 50 mph winds extend to through Melbourne with the lighter green colors and your 50-70 mph winds are from near Vero Beach southward. Now if you add in wind gusts you can add about 20 mph. So that puts our area in the 30-50 mph wind gusts which can cause damage including downed trees and power outages.

Now a lot of folks have been wishing for a tropical system since we still need a lot of rain to end our ongoing drought. We will take a closer look at this on the news tonight. Be careful what you wish for. The problem is these tropical systems rarely behave according to plan. Usually you do not catch up on rain without flooding and wind damage. You also have to worry about power outages. Even though Irene should weaken as it moves north and will likely be a depression or tropical storm by time it reaches us and that is a BIG ASSUMPTION.....we remember what Jeanne did to us in 2004. Some folks were hit with power outages for 3 weeks. In 2008 Tropical Storm Fay spawned an incredible 81 tornadoes across the country and killed 36 folks. We want those bands of rain but not the tornadoes and of course we do have your two minute advantage to keep you safe if nature decides to go that course.

So no matter if we are talking hurricane or tropical storm we are going to take Irene very seriously. We will also not focus on the exact storm track because it will likely be a system several hundred miles wide that will have a far-reaching impact on many. If you get a chance today this is a good reminder to go over your Plan B this week. Kids are getting back in school, some are returning from and or going on vacation. It does not look like a routine week by any means. So of course your weather team here at First Coast News has you covered. It looks like the wind, rain, surf and beach erosion will all start to pick up on Thursday with the worst of the storm Friday into early Saturday. Stay safe, plan wisely and I will see you soon.

Alligators not growling yet but tropics are making plenty of noise

2011-08-20T13:24:00.006-04:00

Saturday, August 20, 2011
It was another fun start to our weekend on Good Morning Jacksonville! Now that is my scared smile you see there because for the first time ever I held a live alligator. The good news was he was only 2 months old. What I learned is they are strong and that their tails are powerful. I was tail-whipped a couple times. The nice folks from the Jacksonville Zoo came in this morning and I talked about Gators and weather. In one of my bazillion almanacs at home I read that gators growl before the approach of a hurricane. The experts gave this fact a thumbs up because gators can sense a change in air pressure which in turn can make them growl. Well this little guy was not growling but the tropics certainly are making a lot of noise! Chief Meteorologist Tim Deegan was talking about us heading into our busiest six weeks of the year and it looks like nature is right on cue.

I would not be surprised if we average at least one to two new named storms per week from now through the end of September. The conditions are ripe with near record warm Atlantic Ocean temperatures and a La Nina pattern which favors busy tropical seasons in the Atlantic basin. So we know about Harvey moving into Belize in Mexico today, but all eyes are on the tropics for Irene and yes Jose to form this week and at least one of those two will pose a threat to the United States. You can see why. We are in the cone of concern! I think Irene will be named before Jose and that is the one to watch. Jose which is just coming off the coast of Africa will likely remain out at sea. Now here is the latest on Irene. Let's look at the upper-air patterns to get a good handle.

Here is why we need to watch it closely. There is a lot of high pressure to the north of our developing tropical wave still located in the Central Atlantic. The invisible shield in the form of a deep trough of low pressure off the US East Coast that has been protecting us for a good portion of this season and last year is no longer there to protect us. You can see that clearly.

Also, the key to this storm is this storm is not getting its act together until later rather than sooner so with high pressure to its north it is essentially running out of time to curve out to sea. Here are the latest spaghetti models showing the tropical trouble. We are not quite sure of the intensity of this system or how its interaction with land may impact it but all the models have been consistent throughout the week of showing a formidable storm near South Florida by late week. Here is a good look at that below.

Notice we have a storm located near the Bahamas and Cuba by Thursday. It looks like it will be steered north-northeast around a high pressure in the western Atlantic and and a trough of low pressure to the north. This will turn the upper wind flow to the south-southwest and it would likely cause what could be Irene to impact Florida and possibly have a secondary landfall in the Carolinas. We do have to keep this in perspective though. This storm has yet to even form and we have a long way to go. But right now this system could pose the biggest threat we have seen to the United States since Ike in 2008 and the East Coast since Jeanne in 2004! It has been 2,520 days since we have had a hurricane strike Florida. This is too good to be true. This has been one of the quietest stretches in US history without a hurricane and unfortunately this streak of good luck seems to be running out. No matter where this storm ends up is a good wake-up call to double-check your disaster supply kit.

Last but not least a big thank you to Dodie Cantrell-Bickley our general manager who took this shot of the storm that rolled through the World Golf Village on this Saturday afternoon. Yes! It really is a team effort here at First Coast News. Thanks for the great shot Dodie! She did say the raindrops were unusually large and that is telling me there are a lot of ice crystals in the clouds which stuck together before melting. This tends to really electrify these storms. So while I am only calling for 20% coverage of storms today make sure you remember your lightning safety rules and be careful on the roads in those brief heavy downpours. I still think most of us miss out on the rain and by late day the majority of the shower and storm activity will be focused along Interstate 75. Have a wonderful weekend. Now back to burning the mid-day oil. It is way too busy to go home! I look forward to seeing you tonight at 6, 6:30 and 11!

Full Red Moon in the morning, Sailors take warning!

2011-08-14T08:44:00.002-04:00

Sunday, August 14, 2011

The full red moon as the Native Americans called it is living up to its name. The full moon in the month of August was called the red moon because the sultry haze this time of year tends to give it a reddish hue especially near the horizon as the moonlight is forced to travel through our pea thick atmosphere. In fact the moon not only looked red last night as it rose but it had a nice rosy color this morning before it set. Our weather intern extraordinaire Athena Masson captured this nice shot of the colorful rising moon last night just about over Everbank Field.

What is the red moon telling us for today's weather? Well, I had fun with the forecast and switched around the old weather proverb that says Red sky in the morning, Sailor's take warning. Red sky at night Sailor's delight. I had to since this saying usually only works in areas north of 35 degrees latitude. The red sky at night is caused by the sun shining on clouds to the east usually indicating a frontal passage and better weather ahead. Red sky in the morning is caused by the sun rising in the east and shining on clouds that could indicate an approaching storm or front on the way.

Here in the sub-tropics, a full red moon this time of year usually means it is hazy and humid. This humidity helps fuel thunderstorms this time of year. Another couple ingredients coming together is we have a strong southern cold front to work with along with plenty of instability. Notice I outlooked our area in a high wind risk where you see the yellow shading. This means I do expect at least a couple storms to produce wind gusts of 58 mph or higher which would prompt a severe thunderstorm warning. These warnings could include mariners or sailors since I expect these storms to reach the beach and even head offshore with a stronger west wind today taking hold of the area.

The red shaded areas is where more widespread severe weather will occur which is closer to the actual cold front that helped end the heat wave over much of the country. This would be primarily from McIntosh and Pierce Counties northward. We will keep our eyes to the sky and look west today. That is where the storms are moving from and like yesterday we could see a few trees down like we saw in Marion and Flagler Counties where gusts were near 60 mph. We will also be on the outlook for flooding rain and frequent lightning.

Jacksonville International Airport had an incredible 2.23 inches of rain yesterday! This brings the year total up to 32.79 inches which is about 2 inches above normal and is about 12" more than we received by this time last year. This is great news. We are still in a drought but heading in the right direction! We only receive more than 2 inches of rain in 24 hours only about a couple times a year on average. Last year we only accomplished this once right before we went rainless in October!

So it has been like a once in a blue moon type of thing! Speaking of which....another moon fact...which was answered on the 11 p.m. news segment called the PRANG FACT of the night. Our next blue moon will be in August, 2012. A blue moon in this case is not defined by its color but by being the second full moon in the same month. This only happens about once every two and a half years. You could make the case our moon had a bluish tinge to it during our busy fire season but I think I like the traditional definition much more.

Last but not least the tropics are firing on all cylinders now but the good news is the main track is around a huge area of high pressure which is directing these named storms out to sea. Franklin is no more but look for Gert to form today and it could brush Bermuda with tropical storm force winds by tonight. It will quickly weaken and head out to see. Now we may not be so lucky with Harvey and Irene that form this week. We will keep a closer eye on those two that could have a track farther south and west. This is a reminder that we are heading into the heart of hurricane season and we need to stay prepared. Today is the anniversary of Hurricane Charley that slammed Florida with 150 mph sustained winds. This was actually the second land-falling tropical cyclone that hit Florida in the same 24 hour period which had never been done before. Tropical Storm Bonnie made landfall in St. Vincent Island, Florida just 22 hours prior

You see the incredible picture of Charley that was actually a small hurricane but very powerful. It hit southwest Florida but still caused plenty of damage on the East Coast of Florida including 80% of Volusia County being without power. Flagler County had hundreds of homes damaged by 60-65 mph sustained winds with gusts to 77 mph. Pretty amazing and it goes to show you the power of nature. Tonight we will take a closer look at Charley's track and maybe even find some cool file video. Also, we will be tracking several systems in the tropics. See you soon! Have a great day!

Stormy to Sulty! Our hottest weather of the year on the way except for the ocean!

2011-08-09T19:27:00.000-04:00

Tuesday, August 9, 2011

For the remainder of our Tuesday afternoon and early evening, showers and thunderstorms continue across the area. There could be a severe thunderstorm or two with damaging wind gusts especially for areas north of Interstate 10 and southeast Georgia where there is more instability and upper support.

Wednesday we start to transition into the hottest weather of the year as high pressure takes over in the atmosphere. Any storms will be few and far between mainly from St. Augustine southward. Highs will be well into the 90s. On Thursday and Friday many areas could hit 100 degrees in the shade and this does not include the humidity.

The tropics are quiet. But it will have to be watched closely as another named storm will be likely in the next 7 to 10 days.

Usually the beach is the place to go this time of year but not this week. We have a west wind taking over the pattern due to strong high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico. This means it will even be scorching on the sand with highs well into the 90s to near 100! The good news is this high pressure will weaken by the weekend with nice sea breezes returning, but until then make sure to slow it down and drink plenty of water. Surf will remain at a foot or less through at least Friday.

Our water temperatures are now in the upper 70s at the beach, but we could have some upwelling helping to decrease ocean temperatures. So swimming in the ocean would definitely provide some relief! Enjoy.

More heat and lightning than rain increases wildfire threat

2011-08-08T17:25:00.003-04:00

Air mass storms continue to fire up in all the heat and humidity and they should taper off in most of Florida by 8 p.m. But if you are in Georgia there is a weak ripple moving through nature's attic that could keep the scattered storms going through 10 p.m. One last round of thundershowers may move through Florida around midnight.

The main threats will be lightning and heavy downpours. Drought conditions continue and the wildfire threat will remain higher than normal throughout the week. We still need 10 to 15 inches of rain to totally rid ourselves of drought conditions and with more scorching heat and lightning than rain we could have a few new fires pop up like we saw on Sunday.

The tropics are quiet. But it will have to be watched closely as another named storm will be likely in the next 7 to 10 days. The Atlantic ocean temperatures have near record warm temperatures and wind shear will start to relax in the next 10 days.

Emily back on CPR! The heat wave and the never-ending drought remain our big concerns!

2011-08-07T08:41:00.006-04:00

Sunday, August 7, 2011

The big meteorological I am having with some colleagues is why Emily was once again resuscitated by the National Hurricane Center and called a depression once again. Yes, the hurricane hunters flew into it yesterday but even if it had some wind gusts near 35 mph there really was no threat to humans to begin with due to a front and shear to its north. We knew it was going out to sea and we should have let Emily rest in peace. But it is what it is.

Emily is officially a tropical depression this morning and you can see what was left of it. It became more organized after moving over water temperatures in the Bahamas near 88 degrees (deep red ocean colors) the last couple of days. At the same time wind shear relaxed just long enough for it to produce sustained winds of 35 mph. But that only lasted about 8 hours and by late last night it was obvious it was being sheared apart again and that drier air to its north along with wind shear would cause it to weaken once again before heading out to sea. So I think once and for all we can let Emily rest in peace. This will not be the never-ending storm like we saw in 1899 that spun around in the Atlantic for nearly 28 days! This record for the longest lived tropical cyclone at least in the Atlantic basin still stands today! The bigger story is what is steering this fragmented, shredded depression away from Jacksonville.

You've guessed it! It is our heat wave. Check this out! The high pressure ridge to our east with a clock-wise circulation along with a trough to the North is guiding Emily out to sea! This is the same high pressure that is bringing Jacksonville its hottest weather of the year this week. Over the next six days I do not see much change in this pattern so unfortunately the heat goes on and highs will remain well into the 90s and it will feel well over 100 each day. The longer the heat wave goes on the more of a toll it takes on your body. Heat has a cumulative effect so make sure to pay even more attention to the young, elderly, and yes the pets.

Today can be considered the tenth straight day of this heat wave. The Florida definition of a heat wave would be highs of 90 or above with officially above average temperatures. We have had 20 straight days of 90 or above. Now I do not expect us to reach 50 like last year but do expect this scorching pattern to hold through a good portion of August. Notice the latest CPC maps showing the hot stuff over us here at home!

This hot pattern is not just uncomfortable but bad news for our drought. I do think we will see more heat than rain over the next couple of weeks as well which could once again stoke a few wildfires. Officially we are still in a moderate drought in St. Johns County to an extreme drought from the Georgia-Florida border northward. For the year we are actually about .50" of rain above normal at Jacksonville.

But my favorite saying is nobody lives at the airport! I have estimated that many areas on the First Coast from the river east are still running a deficit for the year of at least 2 to 4 inches and maybe more. Don in Switzerland, Florida who has kept tabs on rain since the early 70s thinks this rainfall pattern really went haywire back in 1997 and we really have not recovered from that drought. He may have a point. Time will tell. We have certainly been in a more extreme weather pattern not only in Florida but all across the globe with increased droughts and wild temperature swings. I think folks in Camden County may agree with this assessment along with areas just north of Interstate 10 in Florida into extreme south Georgia where they had a rain deficit of at least 3 inches this year as well on top of last year's devastating rain deficit.

Jacksonville International has officially received over 30" of rain. But the soil moisture has not recovered from last year's monster 18" deficit. This explains why many folks tell me they are wishing for a tropical storm and they do have a point. We do need one to help us really get out of this drought. Of course tropical systems rarely behave and it is tough catch up on rain without having to pay for it in another way with either wind damage and flooding, even if we have been so dry! It is a tropical catch-22! So let it rain, let it rain, let it rain. When it is this hot most of the rain we do receive is evaporated quickly. The good news is that more of a normal precipitation pattern for us is expected this coming winter. Hopefully we can really start to effectively re-charge the soil moisture by then.

Speaking of rain you can see only 30% the lucky ones will see it today! But we do have one change and that is the storm tracks will be from the west instead of the east due to a stronger Gulf Coast sea breeze. So if you are at the beaches you could even see an isolated storm or two primarily after 4 p.m. but at this time I think the heat index of 105-115 will have much more of an impact on you. The biggest threats today will once again be heavy rain and lightning with slow-moving storms. The pattern may bring us an increase in storms briefly on Tuesday otherwise do not count on the rain for your plants.

The tropics do remain active with tropical waves lined up all the way to Africa, but I do think our big surge in named storms will hold off until after August 15th. Things will get very interesting after August 20th with a pattern would support multiple named storms. Stay tuned and as things get busier you will be able to count on this blog! For now it is off to church I go to see the family and the One that really has all the answers! God bless! Have a wonderful Sunday. Tonight at 6, 6:30 and 11 I will have more on this heat wave and why the average number of 90 degree days in Jacksonville went way up! Yes, it is tougher to get over the proverbial summer hump and it is made worse when you are in a heat wave!

Beat the heat by helping to Stuff the Bus! The heat wave is here to stay

2011-08-06T13:00:00.005-04:00

Saturday, August 6, 2011

BE A HERO –HELP GIVE KIDS THE TOOLS THEY NEED –HELP US “STUFF THE BUS”

• Hero Central Stuff the Bus is our drive to collect school supplies for needy kids – in partnership with Publix, Community First Credit Union, The Salvation Army and United Way of NE Florida.

• Why should you donate? In these tough times, the need is greater than ever. Thousands of kids start the school year off each year without the tools they need. Last year the Salvation Army served over 2,000 kids…and this year we expect to serve many more.

• What should you donate? Anything you would purchase for your own child: pencils, pens, crayons, markers, highlighters, erasers, loose-leaf paper, spiral notebooks, folders, 3-ring binders, calculators, rulers, compasses, backpacks, lunch boxes, dividers, pencil boxes, tissues, hand sanitizer, plastic zip lock bags, glue sticks, index cards, graph paper, etc.

There is a special need for backpacks, highlighters, scientific calculators index cards, 3-ring binders.

• Would like to help, but you are pressed for time? Publix shoppers can purchase a “pre-stuffed bag available at all Publix locations – there are different priced bags to choose from.

• Where can you donate? Donation bins are at all area Publix Super Markets and Community First Credit Union locations. You can drop off your school supplies donations any time during normal business hours through this weekend.

I could not think of a better way to beat the heat! You can shop in the air conditioning and help those in need. You have until 10 p.m. tonight so hurry up! I wanted to thank everybody for all their contributions and this morning on Good Morning Jacksonville it was great seeing hundreds of folks show up to help make a difference. It goes to show you how giving of a community we live in!

I wish we could thank nature for showing some mercy with this heat but there is no end in sight! Heat indices continue to rocket upward. Here is a picture from a car thermometer from Doug Lockwood. Now usually I would say that this is much warmer than how it really feels outside because the thermometer is not six feet high and in a sheltered, grassy location facing northwest. Well this thermometer is too cold!!! Yes! We have Waycross now with a heat index of 115 at noon and it feels like 111 in Keystone Heights. This is dangerous heat and another reason we will not treat this just like any other typical hot day in Florida. Keep in mind if you take a temperature reading in the sun and combine the temperature and humidity it will feel even warmer.

Now the highest heat index of the year in Jacksonville is 108 set yesterday and today I think we will could hit 110! This is the same heat wave that has caused hundreds of deaths across the country this summer. We have been very lucky up to this point so make sure to be careful out there. An inner tube in the pool or ocean is the place to be.

Any cooling storms should pop mainly west of I-95, and slowly drift erratically. The main threats should be heavy rain like we saw yesterday with 2 to 3 inches east of Ratliff, lightning, and wind gusts near 50 mph. But it is so warm at all levels of the atmosphere many of us will miss out on the rain. This high pressure bringing us the heat wave will keep a pretty good cap on the atmosphere through at least Monday. Tuesday and Wednesday I think will be better days when most of us can count on the rain. As far as the heat wave goes thte new is not so good and it looks like it will be with us for much of the next week with highs in the middle to upper 90s!

Speaking of the ocean how about this great picture sent in by Kathryn from Jacksonville. She is not sure who the little boy is but this picture is priceless! We have had surf reports of 2-3 feet so far this Saturday and we need to enjoy it before a west wind moves in on Sunday taking most of our surf down from 1 to 2 feet. A wave period will also fall to about 7 seconds. So have fun and be safe! I do think the beaches will miss out on our widely scattered storms to day but tomorrow there could be a storm or two that reaches the beach.

Emily was a wake-up call for all of us this week and even though it is quiet in the tropics again we need to keep our guard up! The latest NOAA forecast has increased the number of named storms from 12-18 to 14-19. Our average per season in the Atlantic basin is close to 11. The reason is even though the La Nina has become almost neutral or what is called a La Nada the atmosphere and ocean will still feel the effects of the La Nina for at least the next couple of months through the peak of the hurricane season. Already I am worried about the African Wave Train coming to life. Check out the impressive convection and thunderstorm activity coming off Africa!

This is the area to watch with Franklin possibly developing by next weekend in the open Atlantic. There is impressive convection and thunderstorm activity coming off the coast of Africa and building high pressure along with low shear. This is not a good combination and it is a La Nina signature which supports the updated NOAA forecast. I still think we have a quiet week but watch out in the 7-10 day period. Once the tropics come to life again they will likely stay active for the duration of the season with at least one named storm to track per week. Prepare now and if you missed our hurricane special you have another opportunity to watch it tonight on ABC.

Remember to stuff the bus to stay cool and celebrate National Root Beer Float Day. Today would be a great day for a scoop of vanilla ice creamy and a frothy refreshing drink! A heat advisory continues all the way through 9 p.m. so you can pick up the root beer and ice cream after donating the supplies. That way everybody wins and stays cool! Take care and thanks for reading!

Dangerous heat wave hits Jacksonville

2011-08-06T08:42:00.001-04:00

Saturday, August 6, 2011

Heat advisory in effect until 9 p.m. for the entire viewing area. Dangerous heat and humidity will continue today with highs in the middle 90s beaches to near 100 inland. Heat indices will range from 110 to 120 which will make it feel like the hottest day of the year. A front that was trying to bring us relief is stalling well to our north as you can see! The two headed high pressure monster with big claws and teeth will dominate our weather.

This is the same heat wave that has caused dozens of deaths across the country. Make sure to slow it down and take the heat seriously. Limit outdoor exposure and make sure to find a cool spot for your pets. Only 30% of us will see a cooling shower or storm by mid to late afternoon.

Emily is no more in the tropics but we are still feeling the effects in the form of 2 to 2.5 foot surf on our Saturday. Thank you Linda for sending in this great picture of Franklyn surfing at Neptune Beach yesterday! The good news is Emily weakened so rapidly strong run outs are no longer expected! So we will have plenty of more good swimming and surfing today. Make sure to get out and surf while you can because by Sunday afternoon it will fall to only 1.5 feet. If you are boating seas should remain between 2 to 4 feet with only a light inland chop.

I will be back with much more including an update on the tropics. Now back to Good Morning Jacksonville! Have a wonderful day!